Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data

Michele Bernasconi (), Oliver Kirchkamp and Paolo Paruolo

No 04-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: We generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory experiments using real world data from several European countries as stimuli. We compare a VAR model of expectations for data which is presented in a fiscal frame with one for neutrally presented data. We measure the degree to which participants use fiscal data for their forecasts. Agents' expectations are found neither to be consistent with rational nor with purely adaptive expectations but, instead, follow an augmented-adaptive scheme. Methodological implications of the present approach for experiments in macroeconomics are also discussed.

Keywords: Experiments; fiscal policy; expectations; causality; cointegration; panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C91 D89 E62 H31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2004-07-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-pbe
Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, and partial financial support from Italian MIUR grants ex 60% is gratefully acknowledged.
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data (2009)
Working Paper: Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data (2009)
Working Paper: Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations?: Experiments with real world and lab data (2004)
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