Uncertainty and rounding in expectation surveys

Jonas Dovern and Alexander Glas

No 22/2025, Discussion Papers from Deutsche Bundesbank

Abstract: This paper examines whether the rounding of survey responses in the case of probabilistic question formats is related to expectation uncertainty. Using data from a survey on macroeconomic expectations of private households in Germany, we analyze self-reported reasons for rounding probabilistic inflation expectations. Although rounding is correlated with expectation uncertainty, only 14 percent of respondents explicitly attribute rounding to uncertainty. Most households round to simplify responses or because rounded values reflect their true expectations. Regression analyses do not find significant differences in uncertainty between these groups. The findings suggest caution in interpreting rounding in such settings as a measure of uncertainty and highlight the need for further research on the cognitive mechanisms behind rounding in expectation surveys.

Keywords: uncertainty; rounding; survey data; inflation expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C18 C83 D84 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:bubdps:325496

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