The Global South and US trade policy: Structural exposure and economic vulnerability in selected Latin American countries

Melike Döver and Martin Middelanis

No 26/2025, IDOS Discussion Papers from German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)

Abstract: This paper analyses the structural vulnerabilities of Latin American economies amid recent United States (US)-China tariff escalations and identifies strategic opportunities emerging from these shifts. Based on descriptive bilateral trade data from 2023 for the largest Latin American economies - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico - the study assesses exposure to US tariffs at the industry level. It further highlights sectors with the potential to benefit from diverted trade flows in the context of trade polarisation between China and the US. The degree of exposure varies across countries, depending on export structure and trade partners. While the tariff conflict may enable some countries to expand exports to China or the US, most Latin American economies - except Mexico - export their largest share of their manufactured goods within the region. Strengthening regional trade integration can therefore enhance resilience to external shocks and support technological upgrading.

Keywords: US trade policy; trade policy uncertainty; Latin America; tariff vulnerability; structural trade exposure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna and nep-dev
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:diedps:324635

DOI: 10.23661/idp26.2025

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