Who's most at risk? A global index of climate risk for countries

Matteo Ferrazzi, Fotios Kalantzis and Sanne Zwart

No 2025/06, EIB Working Papers from European Investment Bank (EIB)

Abstract: We present an index to measure climate risk for over 170 countries, separately assessing physical and transition risk while accounting for adaptation and mitigation capacity. Crucially, we carefully select the most relevant risk factors and assign the related weights based on the literature and empirical evidence. This integrated approach distinguished our index from existing rankings which, through the use of numerous equally-weighted indicators, implicitly assign equal importance to risk factors. Our climate risk country scores for 2024 show that low-income economies are more vulnerable to physical risk, in particular to extreme weather events and excessive heat. Countries dependent on fossil fuel revenues are among the most exposed to transition risk, while high-income economies, which generate significant emissions, tend to face high transition risks as well. The scores can be used as a risk management tool, both at the country level and, as starting point, for the assessment of economic entities in each geography. In addition, they can also help to identify mitigation and adaptation priorities and related financing needs. The accompanying excel file (available upon request) allows to easily assess the impact of risk factors on the final scores and to adapt the methodology to alternative purposes.

Keywords: Climate risk; Climate change; Climate scores; Physical risk; Transition risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F64 Q5 Q50 Q54 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:eibwps:319635

DOI: 10.2867/5317974

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