EU economic security imperative: from “emergency doctrine” to anti-fragile nexus

Roumen Solov

EconStor Research Reports from ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics

Abstract: The contemporary global order is undergoing a profound phase transition characterized by weaponized interdependence, strategic technological decoupling, and systemic geoeconomic volatility. This research demonstrates that traditional economic security paradigms-including the European Union's late-2025 "Emergency Doctrine"-are structurally constrained by a linear, "Newtonian" statecraft that designs only for static robustness, inadvertently trapping the state in a vulnerability matrix when facing non-linear shocks. To overcome this limitation, this paper introduces a dual-layered, anti-fragile conceptual architecture that explicitly treats the modern transnational economy as a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). Utilizing Complex Adaptive Systems theory and up-scaling macro-level principles, the study expands the framework of Comprehensive and Dynamic National Economic Security (CDNES) into a broader, continent-wide architecture: Comprehensive and Dynamic Block Economic Security (CDBES). The paper delivers two primary theoretical contributions to contemporary International Political Economy (IPE): 1. Recursive Sovereignty: A reconceptualization of 21st-century sovereignty as inherently multi-level and recursive, demonstrating that the contemporary nation-state cannot achieve enduring security without the strategic regulatory scale of the European block, while the block cannot maintain resilience without the localized, self-organizing agility of the nation. 2. The Model of Recursive Symbiosis: A conceptual "Double Helix" of economic defense where the CDNES and CDBES operate in an interdependent feedback loop. By moving the overarching strategic objective away from mere "robustness" (the capacity to withstand shocks) and toward "anti-fragility" (the systemic capacity to evolve and thrive under stress), this alternative nexus provides a comprehensive, adaptive governance model designed to convert geopolitical disruptions into catalysts for structural evolution.

Keywords: Anti-fragility; Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS); Comprehensive and Dynamic National Economic Security; Comprehensive and Dynamic Block Economic Security; Recursive Symbiosis; Geoeconomics; EU Strategic Autonomy; Weaponized Interdependence; Economic Coercion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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