Climate adaptation, water governance & conflict

Raffaele Bertini and Theocharis Grigoriadis

No 2026/10, Discussion Papers from Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics

Abstract: This paper estimates the causal effect of renewable water conditions and water use on violent conflict in rural agrifood systems. We implement a fixed-effects instrumental variables strategy that uses plausibly exogenous temperature and precipitation shocks to instrument multiple water outcomes. Annual specifications are imprecise, but five-year aggregations yield sharper inference and show that higher renewable freshwater availability significantly reduces conflict risk. Water use margins are central: freshwater withdrawals are associated with lower conflict, whereas higher aggregate water-use efficiency is associated with increased conflict risk. Overall, the results indicate that climate-driven water shocks operate through distinct channels - stocks, withdrawals, and efficiency-and that empirical conclusions depend critically on time aggregation and the definition of water being instrumented. The findings imply that climate adaptation and water policy should be paired with conflict-sensitive governance and improved measurement of local water use and access.

Keywords: agrifood systems; hydro-climatic shocks; violent conflict; water-use efficiency; instrumental variables (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C26 D74 Q15 Q25 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:340109

DOI: 10.17169/refubium-51934

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