Do IMF and World Bank programs induce government crises An empirical analysis

Axel Dreher and Martin Gassebner

No 13, Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 from Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics

Abstract: We examine whether and under which circumstances World Bank projects and IMF programs affect the likelihood of major government crises. Using a sample of more than 90 developing countries over the period 1970-2002, we find that crises are on average more likely in the presence of Bank and Fund involvement. While the effect of the IMF to some extent depends on the model specification, the impact of the World Bank is shown to be robust to the choice of control variables and method of estimation. We also find that governments face an increasing risk to enter a crisis when they remain under IFI programs when the economy performs better. The (economic) conditions present when a new IFI program is initiated, however, do not play a major role for crisis probability. Finally, only programs concluded by the current government affect crises, while those inherited by preceding governments do not.

Keywords: Political Crisis; International Financial Institutions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F34 P48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/39913/1/AEL_2008_13_gassebner.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Do IMF and World Bank Programs Induce Government Crises? An Empirical Analysis (2012)
Working Paper: Do IMF and World Bank Programs Induce Government Crises? An Empirical Analysis (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:gdec08:13

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 from Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().