Does Pension Coverage Predict Fertility? International Evidence from OLS, Fixed Effects and Machine Learning Random Forests

Anika Ewald and Patrick A. Puhani

No 1860, GLO Discussion Paper Series from Global Labor Organization (GLO)

Abstract: We complement existing literature by estimating determinants of the total fertility rate for 183 economies between 2000 and 2023. Methodologically, we utilise pooled OLS and economy/country fixed-effects regressions and complement them with exploratory random forests, which take into account non-linearities and interaction effects. Variable importance measures suggest that after two indicators for life expectancy, GDP per capita, and schooling, pension coverage is among the more important predictors of fertility. Our results suggest that acknowledging the costs of childbearing and childrearing in pension systems may be a method to address declining fertility.

Keywords: demography; birth rate; retirement; pay as you go (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 H55 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:glodps:1860

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