How might a central bank report uncertainty?

Ray C. Fair

Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), 2014, vol. 8, No 2014-27, 22 pages

Abstract: An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

Keywords: Central bank; uncertainty; stochastic simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201427

DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2014-27

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