No evidence of first-mover advantage in a large sample of penalty shootouts

David Pipke

Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

Abstract: Conflicting evidence exists regarding a first-mover advantage in soccer shootouts, where increased pressure on second-moving teams may lead to choking. While some studies support this claim, others refute it, with the lack of consensus likely due to limited sample sizes. An analysis of around 7,000 soccer penalty shootouts and 74,000 kicks finds no evidence of a first- or second-mover advantage in winning probability. Equivalence testing further rejects any deviation greater than 1.8 percentage points from a 50% win probability for first-kicking teams. A parallel analysis of ice hockey shootouts finds no significant advantage or disadvantage for either the first- or second-moving team.

Keywords: First-mover advantage; Choking; Soccer; Penalty-shootout; Ice hockey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D91 J01 L83 Z20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-spo
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318391

DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2025.102816

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