Defending Europe without the US: First estimates of what is needed

Alexandr Burilkov and Guntram B. Wolff

No 183, Kiel Policy Brief from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel)

Abstract: We provide initial estimates of the additional weapons and troops Europe will need to defend itself, assuming an effective US withdrawal from Europe. Russia's military production has ramped up: In 2024, Russia produced and refurbished an estimated 1,550 tanks, 5,700 armoured vehicles and 450 artillery pieces of all types. If the US withdraws from supporting Ukraine, the EU would have to spend only another 0.12 percent of its GDP to replace the US military contributions - a feasible amount. A US-Russian deal on Ukraine, resulting in a continued Russian military build-up would require an increase in European capacities equivalent to the fighting capacity of 300,000 US troops, with a focus on mechanised and armoured forces to replace US army heavy units. European defence spending will have to increase substantially from the current level of about 2 percent of GDP. An initial assessment suggests an increase by about €250 billion annually (or around 3.5 percent of GDP) is warranted in the short term.

Keywords: USA; Europe; Germany; Ukraine; Defense; Security policy; USA; Europa; Deutschland; Ukraine; Verteidigung; Sicherheitspolitik (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F51 F52 H56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-eec
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/312398/1/1917888414.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:312398

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Kiel Policy Brief from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().