America's own goal: Who pays the tariffs?

Julian Hinz, Aaron Lohmann, Hendrik Mahlkow and Anna Vorwig

No 201, Kiel Policy Briefs from Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Abstract: • The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden - the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers. • Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $ 4 trillion, we find near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices. • US customs revenue surged by approximately $ 200 billion in 2025 - a tax paid almost entirely by Americans. • Event studies around discrete tariff shocks on Brazil (50%) and India (25-50%) confirm: export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead. • Indian export customs data validates our findings: when facing US tariffs, Indian exporters maintained their prices and reduced shipments. They did not "eat" the tariff.

Keywords: Tariffs; Trade Policy; Pass-Through; Import Prices; United States; Zölle; Handelspolitik; Importpreise; Vereinigte Staaten (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:336744

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