Competing with China in third markets

Sonali Chowdhry, Katharina Erhardt and Julian Hinz

No 213, Kiel Policy Briefs from Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Abstract: * China's export growth is increasingly concentrated in advanced manufacturing sectors. Over the past two decades, China has expanded its presence not only in traditional industries but also in capital- and technology-intensive products, bringing it into direct competition with advanced economies in sectors where they have long specialized. * Advanced economies have lost market share to China in third markets. Across a wide range of industries, China's gains in market share have been mirrored by losses among advanced economies. The strongest effects are observed in relatively complex manufacturing sectors such as machinery, vehicles, chemicals, and other technology-intensive products. * The impact of Chinese competition differs substantially across countries. Some advanced economies have adapted more successfully to China's rise than others. While Germany, Japan, France, and the United Kingdom experienced significant losses in third markets, countries such as South Korea, Switzerland and the United States have maintained or even improved their position relative to other non-Chinese exporters even as they lose market shares in absolute terms to China's growth. * China's export expansion alone cannot explain all observed losses. For many advanced economies, actual market share declines exceed what would be expected from China's export growth alone. This suggests that part of the deterioration reflects a loss of competitiveness relative to other exporters rather than displacement by China alone. * Germany stands out as particularly exposed. Germany's export structure overlaps strongly with China's and it experienced some of the largest absolute losses in third markets. However, only around one-third of Germany's market share decline can be mechanically attributed to China's expansion, indicating that domestic and European competitiveness challenges also play an important role.

Keywords: China; export competition; third markets; China; Exportwettbewerb; Drittmärkte (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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