Echoes of the 1930s: A scientific comparative analysis of pre-WWII dynamics and contemporary geopolitics

Roland Brandtjen

IU Discussion Papers - Business & Management from IU International University of Applied Sciences

Abstract: This paper compares the inter-war 1930s with the post-2014 international system to identify structural continuities that threaten contemporary stability. A tri-layer literature review integrates archival records, modern governmental datasets and global opinion surveys, normalising disparate time-series for direct cross-epoch comparison. Four recurring fault lines emerge: expansionist revisionism, democratic backsliding, intergenerational economic strain and multilateral erosion. Case comparisons-Germany-Austria 1938 vs. Russia-Crimea 2014; League of Nations budget collapse vs. today's UN funding crisis-demonstrate how weak enforcement and fiscal shortfalls embolden aggressors and extremist movements. Quantitative indicators show youth incomes 13% below parental cohorts across the OECD and UN humanitarian appeals funded at only 13%, echoing Great-Depressionera precarity and institutional paralysis. Yet divergences-nuclear deterrence, digital mobilisation and global value-chain interdependence-moderate direct analogies, constraining full-scale war while amplifying ideological contagion. Early-warning thresholds for expansionism, democratic erosion, economic discontent and multilateral under-funding are proposed to guide automatic policy responses. Recognising both historical rhymes and contemporary differences is essential to forestall a reprise of the 1930s' systemic collapse.

Keywords: Comparative politics; Democratic backsliding; Territorial revisionism; Multilateral institutions; Historical institutionalism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:323585

DOI: 10.56250/4072

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