Do online real estate listing prices gauge transaction prices (well)? Evidence from novel near-real-time data

Michael Koetter, Felix Noth and Carl Fabian Wöbbeking

No 13/2026, IWH Discussion Papers from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Abstract: We show that online listing prices closely approximate transaction prices across Europe. Our validation uses the IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI), a near-real-time database of monthly purchase prices, rents, listing counts, and time on market for 1,154 NUTS-3 regions in 16 countries since April 2024. With publication lags as short as one month, validated listing prices offer a timely, comparable complement to official house price statistics. Purchase price levels correlate between 0.94 and 0.97 with transaction prices in the five most populous markets, while calibration slopes range from 0.95 to 1.00. Asking prices exceed transaction prices by 13% to 22%.

Keywords: asking prices; Europe; house prices; listing data; regional data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C81 R12 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-hre and nep-uep
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:343544

DOI: 10.18717/dp09-fw05

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