Have we under-estimated inflation persistence before WW1? US and international evidence

Stefan Gerlach and Rebecca Stuart

No 25-05, QUCEH Working Paper Series from Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History

Abstract: We argue that measurement error in historical price data has led researchers to erroneously believe that there was little persistence of inflation during the 19th century. Using a statistical technique that accounts for these errors, we estimate the persistence of (a) US inflation and (b) inflation in 14 other economies over the period 1842-1913. Our results indicate that persistence approximately doubles when we use this technique.

Keywords: Inflation persistence; gold standard; measurement errors; instrumental variables (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 F40 N10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-mon
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:qucehw:315743

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