EU enlargment: Ukraine as a special case - the Western Balkans as the norm. Anchoring Kyiv in the EU through a new type of accession association

Barbara Lippert, Nicolai von Ondarza and Frauke Seebass

No 17/2026, SWP Comments from Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Abstract: Since Russia launched its full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine in 2022, the European Union (EU) has pursued its enlargement policy as part of a geopolitical approach. According to the European Commission and candidate states, the EU could admit new members from 2028 onwards, while Ukraine is calling for accession in 2027. Yet significant obstacles remain. Within the EU, the reform process designed to improve its capacity to act and prepare it for a Union of 30 or more has stalled. However, the readiness of accession candidates and the Union's absorption capacity are key criteria that German European policy has traditionally upheld. There is currently intense debate within the EU regarding gradual integration, fast-track routes, and new safeguard clauses aimed at reducing the tension between geopolitical urgency and sound integration policy. With regard to the Western Balkan states, the EU should adhere to the well-established accession process. In the case of Ukraine, the situation is so acute that the political commitment to admit the country must be reaffirmed. As a preliminary step towards membership, the EU should offer Kyiv a new type of accession association that also includes a security and defence dimension.

Keywords: Ukraine; Western Balkans; Moldova; Hungary; Turkey; Georgia; Germany; EU Enlargement; EU reform process; Russia; war of aggression; gradual integration; fast-track routes; new safeguard clauses; European Economic Area (EEA) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:swpcom:340858

DOI: 10.18449/2026C17

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