Return hubs in European migration policy: A residual instrument with systemic risks

Raphael Bossong, Anne Koch and Zefitret Abera Molla

No 36/2026, SWP Comments from Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Abstract: The EU Return Regulation creates a legal basis for transferring individuals subject to enforceable return decisions to third countries willing to accept them, even where they have no prior connection to that country. This makes so-called return hubs an increasingly likely prospect. The political appeal is clear: return hubs offer governments a visible way to demonstrate enforcement at a moment when the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum depends on credible implementation. But political salience should not be mistaken for operational effectiveness. European precedents and recent US experience suggest that transfers to remote third countries are likely to remain marginal, expensive and dependent on tenuous bargains. Return hubs may play a limited role for a small group of people who are otherwise difficult or impossible to remove, but they are not a general solution to low return rates. Their value should be judged by their ability to produce sustainable outcomes that cannot be achieved through the core return system. Without strict tests of additionality, proportionality and rights protection, they may make the wider return system harder, not easier, to fix.

Keywords: EU Return Regulation; return hubs; EU Pact on Migration and Asylum; sustainable outcomes; enforcement; enforceable return decisions; EU return system; safe-third-country concept; UK-Rwanda scheme; Italy-Albania protocol; EU-Turkey Statement; US immigration law (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mig
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:swpcom:344003

DOI: 10.18449/2026C36

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