Prospect theory and psychological factors in football: Effects of the video assistant referee on penalty conversion rates in the German Bundesliga

Tom Böttger and Lars Vischer

No 4/2025, Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics from University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics

Abstract: The increasing integration of technological aids, such as the video assistant referee (VAR), is fundamentally transforming decision-making processes in professional football, especially influencing critical match moments. Penalty kicks, characterised by technical simplicity but intense psychological pressure, may be particularly affected by delays caused by VAR reviews. An analysis of 737 penalty kicks in the German Bundesliga and second Bundesliga (2019-2023) reveals that penalties confirmed following VAR interventions show significantly lower conversion rates. This impact is especially pronounced during the early stages of matches, suggesting prolonged delays disrupt players' established pre-performance routines and heighten psychological stress, which aligns with prospect theory's insights on decision-making under uncertainty. Thus, these insights emphasise how technological innovations enhance officiating accuracy and introduce new psychological demands on athletes at the same time.

Keywords: Bias; Football; Penalty; Rule; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 D91 L83 Z20 Z21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-spo
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:umiodp:316433

DOI: 10.17879/73948675370

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