AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODELING OF IMPACT OF CLIMATIC AND NON-CLIMATIC FACTORS INFLUENCING SORGHUM PRODUCTION IN ETHIOPIA

Abera Gayesa Tirfi ()
Additional contact information
Abera Gayesa Tirfi: Addis Ababa, ETHIOPIA

Malaysian Journal of Sustainable Agriculture (MJSA), 2023, vol. 7, issue 1, 52-57

Abstract: This study examined factors influencing sorghum output in Ethiopia using ARDL model over the period 1981 to 2020. The elasticity coefficient of crop growing period mean temperature showed negatively significant impact on sorghum production in the long-run, aligning with theory. Conversely, main-season rainfall had positively significant impact on sorghum output, contrasting with the theory. Among non-climatic variables, sorghum price and area under sorghum had affirmatively considerable contribution to sorghum production as expected in theory. In the short-run, mean temperature revealed negatively significant impact on sorghum production, supporting the theory. Conversely, the main season rainfall and area under sorghum production demonstrated positively significant impact on sorghum production. Furthermore, sorghum output is positively responsive to own price during the second lag differences, implying that any price incentive strategy should be released before the last year. Equally, sorghum output is positively responsive to fertilizers applied in the first lag, which implies that fertilizers applied on sorghum cultivation during first lag difference have positive contribution to sorghum output supply. In view of the results of the current study, it is strongly recommended that the government should come up with strategies and policies that help sorghum farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Keywords: Rainfall; Temperature; Elasticities; Tropical Cereal Crop (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://myjsustainagri.com/archives/1mjsa2023/1mjsa2023-52-57.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zib:zbmjsa:v:7:y:2023:i:1:p:52-57

DOI: 10.26480/mjsa.01.2023.52.57

Access Statistics for this article

Malaysian Journal of Sustainable Agriculture (MJSA) is currently edited by Dr Fridelina Sjahrir

More articles in Malaysian Journal of Sustainable Agriculture (MJSA) from Zibeline International Publishing
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Zibeline International Publishing ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).