Choosing between causal interpretations: an experimental study

Sandro Ambuehl and Heidi Thysen
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Sandro Ambühl

No 458, ECON - Working Papers from Department of Economics - University of Zurich

Abstract: Good decision-making requires understanding the causal impact of our actions. Often, we only have access to correlational data that could stem from multiple causal mechanisms with divergent implications for choice. Our experiments comprehensively characterize choice when subjects face conflicting causal interpretations of such data. Behavior primarily reflects three types: following interpretations that make attractive promises, choosing cautiously, and assessing the fit of interpretations to the data. We characterize properties of interpretations that obscure bad fit to subjects. Preferences for more complex models are more common than those reflecting Occam’s razor. Implications extend to the Causal Narratives and Model Persuasion literatures.

Keywords: Decision-making; causal mechanisms; causal narratives; model persuasion; causal interpretations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C91 D01 D83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe, nep-dcm and nep-exp
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https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/264659/1/econwp458.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Choosing between Causal Interpretations: An Experimental Study (2024)
Working Paper: Choosing Between Causal Interpretations: An Experimental Study (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zur:econwp:458

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