AI-Driven Prediction of Electricity Production and Consumption in Micro-Hydropower Plant

OsmanSafi, Gul Muhammad Khan, Gul Rukh Khattak ()
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OsmanSafi, Gul Muhammad Khan, Gul Rukh Khattak: Electrical Engineering Department, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar2National Center of AI, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar

International Journal of Innovations in Science & Technology, 2024, vol. 6, issue 5, 125-133

Abstract: Micro hydropower plants must effectively manage demand response to preserve operational firmness and prevent system breakdowns. This research focuses on accomplishing a fine balance while predicting consumption and production, which is significant for upholding system integrity. The study delves into predictive modeling methods to forecast patterns in the production and consumption of electricity over an array of time horizons.We adopted a custom sliding window mechanism, in which actual and predicted values are used to predict the next hour of electricity. We set a baselineto resolve this and examined various algorithms, focusing on RNN-LSTM and CGP-LSTM. The CGP-LSTM forecasting output sequences with different time horizons precisely outperform the RNN-LSTM. The dataset utilized is downloaded from the Kaggle website. 50% of the data is used to train the models, and the rest is used to test the models. Thiswork deals with the complex fluctuations in the demand response system and provides electricity production and consumption predictions. CGP-LSTM model gave a training MAPE of 6.67 (Accuracy of 93.33%) and a testing MAPE of 6.68 (accuracy of 93.32%) for the next three hours; on the other hand, LSTM gave a training MAPE of 6.53 (accuracy of 93.47%) and testing MAPE of 7.46 (accuracy of 92.54%) for the next three hours.The results offer a base for further developments and improvements in the field, drawing attention to more effective and reliable energy management capabilities in micro hydropower plants

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Micro-Hydropower Plant; Time Series Forecasting; LSTM; CGP; Hourly Electricity Prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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