Factors Affecting Demographic Processes in the Regions of the Russian Federation: An Empirical Analysis

I. V. Manaeva, L. A. Kamynina () and T. A. Zhuravleva ()

Administrative Consulting, 2026, issue 1

Abstract: The development of a system of indicators and methodologies for monitoring and assessing progress toward achieving the goals of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation N 312 of May 7, 2024, «On the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2030 and for the Perspective Up to 2036» is currently an important applied task.The purpose of this article is to assess the factors influencing demographic processes in Russia's regions within the framework of achieving the national goal of «preserving the popula tion, improving health and well-being, and supporting families».Based on the analysis of foreign and Russian literature on the subject matter, the author substantiated the factors influencing the birth rate (poverty level, unemployment rate, primary real estate value, residential area per capita, personal loan debt, number of women aged 18 to 45) and the death rate (poverty level, number of hospital beds per 10,000 people, retail sales of alcoholic beverages per capita, share of employed population with higher education, number of registered crimes per 100,000 people, air pollutant emissions from stationary sources).The study period was 2013–2023, the object was 85 regions of the Russian Federation, and the source of primary statistical information was collections and databases of the Federal State Statistics Service. Empirically, a negative impact of poverty and loan debt on the birth rate in the regions of the Russian Federation was revealed. A 1% decrease in the price per square meter of residential real estate increases the birth rate in a region by 0.22 %. A significant direct impact on mortality in Russian regions was found for the factors “crime rate†and “retail sales of alcoholic beverages†. A 1 % increase in the share of the employed population with higher education reduces mortality by 0.7 %. Contradictory results were obtained for factors such as “unemployment rate†, “residential area per capita†, “number of hospital beds†, and “air pollutant emissions from stationary sources†, requiring further analysis and evaluation.This study complements the existing body of work assessing the conditions and factors of demographic processes.

Date: 2026
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