Determinants of Family and Demographic Policy Effectiveness: The Case of the Leningrad Region

S. V. Lyashko (), O. A. Antoncheva (), A. A. Matveev () and A. E. Geger ()

Administrative Consulting, 2026, issue 5

Abstract: Introduction. The regulatory framework for regional family support is the Social Code of the Leningrad Region; in recent years, the range of measures has been constantly expanding. This occurs both within the framework of the national project “Family†and under regional programmes. The authors hypothesise that the effectiveness of family and demographic policy is determined not only by state support measures, but also by the regional context, including migration growth and territorial heterogeneity.The purpose of this study is to analyse the current state and outcomes of the family and demographic policy implementation in the Leningrad Region and to assess its role in the transformation of the region’s demographic situation.Materials and methods. The methodological basis of the study comprised secondary analysis of data from Rosstat and the Automated Information System “Sotszashchita†of the Leningrad Region, as well as federal and regional regulatory legal acts; comparative analysis of time series for 2020–2025 with a grouping of municipalities according to the typology of N. P. Emlianov; and in-depth expert interviews with six specialists, followed by thematic coding. The results of the study. The analysis showed that the population of the Leningrad Region increased from 1,875.8 thousand to 2,059.5 thousand people in 2020–2025, representing a growth of 9.8%. The main driver of this increase is migration, which compensates for natural population decline. At the same time, the birth rate continues to decline under the influence of both structural factors (a reduction in the number of women of reproductive age) and behavioural factors. The authors identified a pronounced territorial differentiation of demographic dynamics: the highest population growth was recorded in Vsevolozhsk (+34.3%), Lomonosov (+22.6%) and Kingisepp (+20%) districts, while nine districts experienced a population decrease. The expansion of support measures for families with children has not led to noticeable shifts in the demographic situation. According to the analysis of expert interviews, experts consider the housing problem to be the key barrier to increasing the birth rate. In their opinion, current measures, including subsidised mortgages, are insufficient for sustainable stimulation of family behaviour.Conclusions. The authors conclude that there is a need for a differentiated territorially oriented approach to the implementation of family policy, targeted support for families, the development of partnership programmes with enterprises to provide housing, prioritisation of support measures according to their effectiveness, as well as the introduction of educational and awareness-raising practices and the adaptation of successful regional solutions, including loyalty programmes.

Date: 2026
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