Short-Term Economic Forecasting by Complex-Valued Autoregressions

Sergey Svetunkov

Economics of Contemporary Russia, 2021, issue 4

Abstract: One of the directions that can expand the instrumental base for modeling the economy is complex-valued economics – ​a section of economic and mathematical modeling devoted to the use of models and methods of the theory of the function of a complex variable in economics. The article discusses the possibility of short-term economic forecasting using autoregressive models of complex variables. A classification of possible modifications of complex-valued autoregressive models is given, and the main properties of each of the classes of these models are shown. One of the varieties of these complex-valued models uses current and past errors of approximation, which means that it can be compared with the widely used model of autoregressive real variables ARIMA(p, d, q). The article makes such a comparison, both on a theoretical level and on a practical example.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecr-journal.ru/jour/article/viewFile/671/444 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ack:journl:y:2021:id:671

DOI: 10.33293/1609-1442-2021-4(95)-35-48

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economics of Contemporary Russia from Regional Public Organization for Assistance to the Development of Institutions of the Department of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ð ÐµÐ´Ð°ÐºÑ†Ð¸Ñ ().