Accounting of Interval Uncertainty in the Investment Projects Evaluation in Russian Non-Stationary Economy: Assumptions and Methods

S. I. Savilov ()

Economics of Contemporary Russia, issue 2

Abstract: Implementation of investment projects is necessary for stable growth of the Russian economy. Investment projects evaluating takes place before projects implementation, when values of parameters and scenarios are unknown. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the uncertainty and risks. Objective of this work are identifying problems of actual methods of interval uncertainty accounting in non-stationary economy of Russia, and development alternative method. In the article shown, that common method based on Hurwicz criterion has disadvantages. Then obtained a new method of evaluation, based on the comments to the justification Hurwicz criterion. New method is named modified Gibbs-Jaynes criterion Using this method can improve quality and validity of investment decisions in non-stationary economy, which are required of sustainable development of Russian economy.

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