PRICE-METRICS PARADIGM IN ECONOMIC FORECASTING

Elena I. Balaban (), Andrei V. Galchenko () and Vladilen A. Tegin ()

Economics of Contemporary Russia, issue 1

Abstract: The paper describes the concept of a “price-metrics†analysis for a long-term and super long-term prognosis of the prices of high-technology material products, presented typical methodology, formulas and calculations charts. A formalization of the price criterion “expensive/cheap†. The results are based on econometric analysis of the 100-year-old retromassiva prices of hundreds of messages. Revealed important features of change over time in prices, such as the continuous growth rate of stability does not depend on the political and economic environment. Described clustered, multi-speed nature of the price increases for similar products segregated the two groups of countries: the “advanced†(the countries of the “golden billion†) and “developing†(“peripheral†countries of the world economy). 1933 is determined by the most plausible starting point of bifurcation in the growth of Unit Stake similar industrial products. Move forward to enter into separate supply military and civilian products. Additionally, the “price-metrics†method is considered a hypothetical modernization instrument of planned-market economy, targeting the optimal price determination in high-technology industrial sectors. Explanations and recommendations on implementation are given; advantages of the method are validated.

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