Population growth and unemployment in South Africa: A 24-Year analysis

Hummerly Dhoba, Primrose Mutema, Adedamola Temitope Akinlade and Elvis Madondo
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Hummerly Dhoba: Durban University of Technology
Primrose Mutema: Universitas Islam International Indonesia. Faculty of Social Studies, Department of Public Policy, Indonesia
Adedamola Temitope Akinlade: University of KwaZulu-Natal
Elvis Madondo: University of Johannesburg

International Journal of Business Ecosystem & Strategy (2687-2293), 2025, vol. 7, issue 3, 313-321

Abstract: This study explores the nexus between population growth and unemployment in South Africa from 2000 to 2023, a period marked by significant demographic changes and economic challenges. South Africa has experienced rising unemployment alongside rapid population growth, which has led to concerns about the country’s ability to absorb its expanding labour force. The aim of this research is to examine how population growth influences unemployment, considering additional factors like foreign direct investment (FDI), gross domestic product (GDP), and inflation. Using time series data from the World Bank, Statistics South Africa, and the South African Reserve Bank, the study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test for stationarity, Johansen cointegration for long-term relationships, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to estimate the impact of population growth on unemployment. Key findings indicate that population growth has a positive and statistically significant relationship with unemployment, meaning higher population growth increases unemployment levels. Foreign direct investment also shows a positive effect on unemployment, while GDP and inflation exhibit negative but statistically insignificant relationships. Based on these findings, the study recommends strategic urban planning, family planning initiatives, and targeted policies to attract labour-intensive FDI. Additionally, the government should focus on economic diversification, supporting SMEs, and investing in skill development to create sustainable jobs. This research contributes to understanding the dynamics between population growth and unemployment in South Africa and offers insights for more effective policy interventions. Key Words:Population growth, nexus, unemployment, South Africa, foreign direct investment, economic growth, time series analysis

Date: 2025
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