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Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy

Nicolas Coeurdacier, Stéphane Guibaud and Keyu Jin

American Economic Review, 2015, vol. 105, issue 9, 2838-81

Abstract: We show that in an open-economy OLG model, the interaction between growth differentials and household credit constraints—more severe in fast-growing countries—can explain three prominent global trends: a divergence in private saving rates between advanced and emerging economies, large net capital outflows from the latter, and a sustained decline in the world interest rate. Micro-level evidence on the evolution of age-saving profiles in the US and China corroborates our mechanism. Quantitatively, our model explains about a third of the divergence in aggregate saving rates, and a significant portion of the variations in age-saving profiles across countries and over time. (JEL E21, E22, F21, F32, F41, O16, P24)

JEL-codes: E21 E22 F21 F32 F41 O16 P24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20130549
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Related works:
Working Paper: Credit constraints and growth in a global economy (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Credit constraints and growth in a global economy (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: Credit constraints and growth in a global economy (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy (2011) Downloads
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