Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy

Nicolas Coeurdacier, Stéphane Guibaud () and Keyu Jin
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Stéphane Guibaud: ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Keyu Jin: LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science

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Abstract: We show that in an open-economy OLG model, the interaction between growth differentials and household credit constraints—more severe in fast-growing countries—can explain three prominent global trends: a divergence in private saving rates between advanced and emerging economies, large net capital outflows from the latter, and a sustained decline in the world interest rate. Micro-level evidence on the evolution of age-saving profiles in the US and China corroborates our mechanism. Quantitatively, our model explains about a third of the divergence in aggregate saving rates, and a significant portion of the variations in age-saving profiles across countries and over time.

Keywords: Global Economy; Economical Growth; Credit Constraints (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-09
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03392968
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (83)

Published in American Economic Review, 2015, 105 (9), pp.2838 - 2881. ⟨10.1257/aer.20130549⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy (2015)
Working Paper: Credit constraints and growth in a global economy (2015)
Working Paper: Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy (2015)
Working Paper: Credit constraints and growth in a global economy (2013)
Working Paper: Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy (2012)
Working Paper: Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy (2012)
Working Paper: Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy (2012)
Working Paper: Credit constraints and growth in a global economy (2011)
Working Paper: Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03392968

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20130549

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