Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration

Alan Blinder and Mark Watson

American Economic Review, 2016, vol. 106, issue 4, 1015-45

Abstract: The US economy has performed better when the president of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican, almost regardless of how one measures performance. For many measures, including real GDP growth (our focus), the performance gap is large and significant. This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future. (JEL D72, E23, E32, E65, N12, N42)

JEL-codes: D72 E23 E32 E65 N12 N42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20140913
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (88)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration (2014)
Working Paper: Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration (2014)
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