Details about Mark W. Watson

Homepage:	http://www.princeton.edu/~mwatson/
Workplace:	Department of Economics, Princeton University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Mark W. Watson.

Last updated 2025-04-28. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pwa582

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Working Papers

2025

1. Recovering from COVID
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

2022

2. Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (9)
   Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2019) View citations (13)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2019) View citations (14)

2019

3. An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)
4. Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (33)

2018

5. Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (424)
   See also Journal Article Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2018) View citations (444) (2018)
6. The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
   Technical Briefings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (1)

2017

7. Long-Run Covariability
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
8. The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (122)
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2017) View citations (48)
   See also Journal Article The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution (2017) View citations (135) (2017)
9. The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009
   2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (7)

2015

10. Core Inflation and Trend Inflation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article Core Inflation and Trend Inflation, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2016) View citations (95) (2016)
11. Low-Frequency Econometrics
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)

2014

12. Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies. (2014) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2016) View citations (90) (2016)

2013

13. Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics View citations (102)
    Also in Working Paper, Harvard University OpenScholar View citations (69)
    See also Journal Article Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2013) View citations (96) (2013)
14. Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Forecasts
    Annual Meeting Plenary, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (2)
15. Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2016) View citations (35) (2016)

2012

16. Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (437)
17. Inflation and Unit Labor Cost
    Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, Boston University - Department of Economics View citations (45)
    See also Journal Article Inflation and Unit Labor Cost, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2012) View citations (43) (2012)

2011

18. Dynamic Factor Models
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics View citations (267)

2010

19. Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (30)
    See also Journal Article Estimating turning points using large data sets, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2014) View citations (79) (2014)
20. Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (267)
21. Modeling Inflation After the Crisis
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (148)
    See also Journal Article Modeling inflation after the crisis, Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2010) View citations (68) (2010)

2009

22. Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Low-frequency robust cointegration testing, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2013) View citations (13) (2013)

2008

23. Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production
    2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
    Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2008) View citations (56)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2008) View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (2011) View citations (360) (2011)
24. Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics View citations (271)
    Also in NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2006) View citations (38)
    See also Journal Article Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2008) View citations (291) (2008)
25. Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (198)
    See also Journal Article Phillips curve inflation forecasts, Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2008) View citations (174) (2008)
26. The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics View citations (30)

2007

27. Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire
    2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (5)
    Also in Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2007) View citations (8)
28. Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2010) View citations (70) (2010)
29. Relative Goods? Prices and Pure Inflation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (7)

2006

30. Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2008) View citations (59) (2008)
31. Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (42)
    See also Journal Article Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2007) View citations (1240) (2007)

2005

32. A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series
    Working Papers, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University View citations (24)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2005) View citations (45)
    See also Journal Article A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2006) View citations (515) (2006)
33. Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (709)

2003

34. Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (139)
    See also Journal Article Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics, Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press (2005) View citations (388) (2005)

2002

35. Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1156)
    See also Chapter Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2003) View citations (356) (2003)

2001

36. Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
    Also in Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society (2000) View citations (10)
37. Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (123)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association (2003) View citations (901) (2003)
38. Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (57)

1999

39. Forecasting Inflation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (944)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (1999) View citations (901) (1999)

1998

40. A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (108)
41. Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (142)
    See also Chapter Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series, Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (1999) View citations (455) (1999)
42. Diffusion Indexes
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (207)

1996

43. Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (14)
44. How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (126)
    See also Chapter How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1997) View citations (244) (1997)

1995

45. Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle
    Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (48)
    See also Journal Article Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1996) View citations (263) (1996)

1994

46. Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (1994) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1997) View citations (85) (1997)
47. Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (1994) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (1996) View citations (690) (1996)
48. Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
49. The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history
    Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (80)
    See also Journal Article The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier (1994) View citations (107) (1994)
50. The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history: response to Evans and McCallum
    Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

1993

51. Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known
    Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (1)
52. Vector autoregressions and cointegration
    Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (6)
    See also Chapter Vector autoregressions and cointegration, Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier (1986) View citations (4) (1986)

1992

53. A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (67)
    See also Chapter A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1993) View citations (143) (1993)
54. A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance
    Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (21)
55. Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (1992) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1994) View citations (117) (1994)
56. Testing Long Run Neutrality
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (68)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (1992) View citations (40)
    See also Journal Article Testing long-run neutrality, Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (1997) View citations (97) (1997)

1991

57. A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems
    Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems, Econometrica, Econometric Society (1993) View citations (2413) (1993)
58. Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (1991) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (1993) View citations (232) (1993)
59. Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations
    Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (706)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1987) View citations (56)
    See also Journal Article Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1991) View citations (844) (1991)

1990

60. Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)

1989

61. A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (18)
62. NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
    Working Papers, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government View citations (762)
    See also Chapter New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1989) View citations (1077) (1989)

1988

63. A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (95)
64. Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (415)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1988) View citations (432)
    See also Chapter Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1988) View citations (441) (1988)

1987

65. Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (37)
    See also Journal Article Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (1989) View citations (258) (1989)

1984

66. Are Business Cycles All Alike?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (59)
    See also Chapter Are Business Cycles All Alike?, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1986) View citations (364) (1986)

1983

67. Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)

1982

68. Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (589)

Undated

69. Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information
    Working Papers, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University View citations (313)
    See also Journal Article Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information, European Economic Review, Elsevier (2003) View citations (342) (2003)

Journal Articles

2023

1. What Does Sectoral Inflation Tell Us About the Aggregate Trend in Inflation?
   Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2023, 23, (37)

2019

2. How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019 View citations (1)

2018

3. Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments
   Economic Journal, 2018, 128, (610), 917-948 View citations (444)
   See also Working Paper Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments, NBER Working Papers (2018) View citations (424) (2018)
4. Long†Run Covariability
   Econometrica, 2018, 86, (3), 775-804 View citations (30)
5. The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018 View citations (1)

2017

6. The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
   Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2017, 48, (1 (Spring)), 1-81 View citations (135)
   See also Working Paper The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009, NBER Working Papers (2017) View citations (122) (2017)
7. Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures
   Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2017, 31, (2), 59-86 View citations (50)

2016

8. Comment
   NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2016, 30, (1), 85 - 89
9. Core Inflation and Trend Inflation
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016, 98, (4), 770-784 View citations (95)
   See also Working Paper Core Inflation and Trend Inflation, NBER Working Papers (2015) View citations (19) (2015)
10. Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions
    The Review of Economic Studies, 2016, 83, (4), 1711-1740 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction, NBER Working Papers (2013) View citations (5) (2013)
11. Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration
    American Economic Review, 2016, 106, (4), 1015-45 View citations (90)
    See also Working Paper Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration, NBER Working Papers (2014) View citations (1) (2014)

2015

12. Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis
    Econometrica, 2015, 83, 771-811 View citations (82)

2014

13. Estimating turning points using large data sets
    Journal of Econometrics, 2014, 178, (P2), 368-381 View citations (79)
    See also Working Paper Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets, NBER Working Papers (2010) View citations (30) (2010)
14. Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession
    American Economic Review, 2014, 104, (5), 31-36 View citations (62)

2013

15. Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability
    Journal of Econometrics, 2013, 177, (2), 289-304 View citations (96)
    See also Working Paper Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability, Scholarly Articles (2013) View citations (102) (2013)
16. Low-frequency robust cointegration testing
    Journal of Econometrics, 2013, 174, (2), 66-81 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing, NBER Working Papers (2009) View citations (1) (2009)

2012

17. Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2012, 43, (1 (Spring)), 81-156 View citations (351)
18. Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2012, 30, (4), 481-493 View citations (170)
19. Inflation and Unit Labor Cost
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012, 44, 111-149 View citations (43)
    See also Working Paper Inflation and Unit Labor Cost, Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series (2012) View citations (45) (2012)

2011

20. Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production
    Journal of Political Economy, 2011, 119, (1), 1 - 38 View citations (360)
    See also Working Paper Aggregate Shocks and the Variability of Industrial Production, 2008 Meeting Papers (2008) (2008)

2010

21. Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons
    American Economic Review, 2010, 100, (2), 16-19 View citations (57)
22. Modeling inflation after the crisis
    Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, 2010, 173-220 View citations (68)
    See also Working Paper Modeling Inflation After the Crisis, NBER Working Papers (2010) View citations (148) (2010)
23. Recollections of Clive Granger
    Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2010, 8, (2), 171-171
24. Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2010, 2, (3), 128-57 View citations (70)
    See also Working Paper Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation, NBER Working Papers (2007) View citations (8) (2007)

2008

25. Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression
    Econometrica, 2008, 76, (1), 155-174 View citations (291)
    See also Working Paper Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression, Scholarly Articles (2008) View citations (271) (2008)
26. Phillips curve inflation forecasts
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2008 View citations (174)
    See also Working Paper Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts, NBER Working Papers (2008) View citations (198) (2008)
27. Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability
    Econometrica, 2008, 76, (5), 979-1016 View citations (59)
    See also Working Paper Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability, NBER Working Papers (2006) View citations (3) (2006)

2007

28. ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs
    American Economic Review, 2007, 97, (3), 1021-1026 View citations (316)
29. Consistent Estimation of the Number of Dynamic Factors in a Large N and T Panel
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2007, 25, 91-96 View citations (168)
30. Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (7), 1849-1849 View citations (419)
31. How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps?
    Economic Quarterly, 2007, 93, (Spr), 143-161 View citations (47)
32. Journal of Applied Econometrics Annual Lecture Series
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2007, 22, (3), 701-701
33. On the sources of the Great Moderation - discussion
    Proceedings, 2007, (Nov)
34. Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (s1), 3-33 View citations (1240)
    See also Working Paper Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?, NBER Working Papers (2006) View citations (42) (2006)

2006

35. A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series
    Journal of Econometrics, 2006, 135, (1-2), 499-526 View citations (515)
    See also Working Paper A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series, Working Papers (2005) View citations (24) (2005)

2005

36. Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\"
    Review, 2005, 87, (Jul), 453-458
37. Has inflation become harder to forecast?
    Proceedings, 2005 View citations (5)
38. Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2005, 3, (5), 968-1006 View citations (388)
    See also Working Paper Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics, NBER Working Papers (2003) View citations (139) (2003)

2004

39. Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set
    Journal of Forecasting, 2004, 23, (6), 405-430 View citations (652)
40. Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2004, 36, (2), 287-91 View citations (141)

2003

41. Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices
    Journal of Economic Literature, 2003, 41, (3), 788-829 View citations (901)
    Also in Proceedings, 2001, (Mar) (2001) View citations (115)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices, NBER Working Papers (2001) View citations (123) (2001)
42. Has the business cycle changed?
    Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, 2003, 9-56 View citations (179)
43. Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information
    European Economic Review, 2003, 47, (1), 1-18 View citations (342)
    See also Working Paper Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information, Working Papers View citations (313)

2002

44. Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach: commentary
    Economic Policy Review, 2002, 8, (May), 113-116 View citations (2)
45. Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2002, 97, 1167-1179 View citations (1662)
46. Low cost light traps for coral reef fishery research and sustainable ornamental fisheries
    Naga, 2002, 25, (2), 4-7
47. Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2002, 20, (2), 147-62 View citations (1424)
48. Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary
    Review, 2002, 84, (Jul), 95-98
49. System Reduction and Solution Algorithms for Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations
    Computational Economics, 2002, 20, (1-2), 57-86 View citations (85)

2001

50. Vector Autoregressions
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2001, 15, (4), 101-115 View citations (613)

2000

51. Recent changes in trend and cycle, remarks
    Proceedings, 2000

1999

52. A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination
    Spanish Economic Review, 1999, 1, (2), 91-121 View citations (47)
53. Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates
    Economic Quarterly, 1999, (Fall), 71-96 View citations (41)
54. Forecasting inflation
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1999, 44, (2), 293-335 View citations (901)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting Inflation, NBER Working Papers (1999) View citations (944) (1999)
55. Special Section on Consumer Price Research: Introduction
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1999, 17, (2), 137-40 View citations (1)

1998

56. The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations
    International Economic Review, 1998, 39, (4), 1015-26 View citations (230)

1997

57. Comment on "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in Inflation: Israel 1972-1990."
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1997, 29, (4), 753-55
58. Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1997, 79, (2), 184-200 View citations (85)
    See also Working Paper Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors, NBER Technical Working Papers (1994) View citations (1) (1994)
59. Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997, 28, (1), 91-157 View citations (1008)
60. Testing long-run neutrality
    Economic Quarterly, 1997, (Sum), 69-101 View citations (97)
    See also Working Paper Testing Long Run Neutrality, NBER Working Papers (1992) View citations (68) (1992)
61. The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1997, 11, (1), 33-49 View citations (352)

1996

62. Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1996, 14, (1), 11-30 View citations (690)
    See also Working Paper Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations, NBER Technical Working Papers (1994) View citations (10) (1994)
63. Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data-Filtering Process? Comment
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1996, 14, (3), 394-96 View citations (8)
64. Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 78, (1), 35-53 View citations (263)
    See also Working Paper Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle, Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues (1995) View citations (48) (1995)

1995

65. Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship
    Economic Perspectives, 1995, 19, (May), 2-12 View citations (65)
66. Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified
    Econometric Theory, 1995, 11, (5), 984-1014 View citations (126)

1994

67. Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy
    American Economic Review, 1994, 84, (1), 24-46 View citations (117)
    See also Working Paper Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy, NBER Working Papers (1992) View citations (10) (1992)
68. Rejoinder to Evans and McCallum
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1994, 41, (1), 243-250
69. The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1994, 41, (1), 157-219 View citations (107)
    See also Working Paper The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history, Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues (1994) View citations (80) (1994)

1993

70. A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems
    Econometrica, 1993, 61, (4), 783-820 View citations (2413)
    See also Working Paper A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems, Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues (1991) View citations (7) (1991)
71. Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models
    Journal of Political Economy, 1993, 101, (6), 1011-41 View citations (232)
    See also Working Paper Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models, NBER Technical Working Papers (1991) View citations (3) (1991)

1991

72. Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations
    American Economic Review, 1991, 81, (4), 819-40 View citations (844)
    See also Working Paper Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations, Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues (1991) View citations (706) (1991)
73. Using econometric models to predict recessions
    Economic Perspectives, 1991, 15, (Nov), 14-25 View citations (7)

1990

74. Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots
    Econometrica, 1990, 58, (1), 113-44 View citations (1514)

1989

75. Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality
    Journal of Econometrics, 1989, 40, (1), 161-181 View citations (258)
    See also Working Paper Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality, NBER Working Papers (1987) View citations (37) (1987)
76. MTS: A Review
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1989, 4, (2), 205-06
77. Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models
    Journal of Econometrics, 1989, 41, (1), 65-89 View citations (27)

1988

78. A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Comment
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1988, 6, (4), 408-09
79. The convergence of multivariate unit root distributions to their asymptotic limits: The case of money-income causality
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1988, 12, (2-3), 489-502 View citations (1)
80. Variable Trends in Economic Time Series
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1988, 2, (3), 147-74 View citations (226)

1987

81. Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1987, 5, (4), 451-53 View citations (2)

1986

82. Does GNP have a unit root?
    Economics Letters, 1986, 22, (2-3), 147-151 View citations (31)
83. Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1986, 18, (1), 49-75 View citations (424)

1985

84. A dymimic model of housing price determination
    Journal of Econometrics, 1985, 28, (3), 307-326 View citations (18)
85. Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model
    Economic Journal, 1985, 95, (379), 725-45 View citations (109)
86. Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1985, 67, (2), 341-46 View citations (20)

1984

87. Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1984, 13, (2), 165-181 View citations (4)

1983

88. Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models
    Journal of Econometrics, 1983, 23, (3), 385-400 View citations (226)
89. Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle: A Comment
    Journal of Political Economy, 1983, 91, (5), 876-79

Books

1993

1. Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting
   NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (526)

Edited books

2010

1. Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Robert Engle
   OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press View citations (74)

2001

2. Essays in Econometrics Real Author-Name:Granger,Clive W. J
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press
3. Essays in Econometrics Real Author-Name:Granger,Clive W. J
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press
4. Essays in Econometrics Real Author-Name:Granger,Clive W. J
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press
5. Essays in Econometrics Real Author-Name:Granger,Clive W. J
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press

1993

6. Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting
   National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press View citations (515)

Chapters

2025

1. Comment on "Tradeoffs and Sacrifice over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level" 2
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, 2025

2022

2. Comment on "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification" 2
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, 2022, pp 161-166

2019

3. Comment on "On the Empirical (Ir)relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint"
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, 2019, pp 182-193 View citations (4)

2016

4. Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics
   Elsevier View citations (256)

2015

5. Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy"
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, 2015, pp 85-89

2013

6. Comment on "Shocks and Crashes"
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, 2013, pp 367-378

2006

7. Forecasting with Many Predictors
   Elsevier View citations (325)

2003

8. Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, 2003, pp 159-230 View citations (356)
   See also Working Paper Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) View citations (1156) (2002)

1999

9. Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series
   Chapter 01 in Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999, vol. 1, Part A, pp 3-64 View citations (455)
   See also Working Paper Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998) View citations (142) (1998)

1997

10. How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?
    A chapter in Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, 1997, pp 195-246 View citations (244)
    See also Working Paper How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1996) View citations (126) (1996)

1993

11. A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience
    A chapter in Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, 1993, pp 95-156 View citations (143)
    See also Working Paper A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1992) View citations (67) (1992)
12. Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting"
    A chapter in Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, 1993, pp 1-10 View citations (71)

1989

13. New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, 1989, pp 351-409 View citations (1077)
    See also Working Paper NEW INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government (1989) View citations (762) (1989)

1988

14. Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, 1988, pp 111-156 View citations (441)
    See also Working Paper Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1988) View citations (415) (1988)

1986

15. Are Business Cycles All Alike?
    A chapter in The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, 1986, pp 123-180 View citations (364)
    See also Working Paper Are Business Cycles All Alike?, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1984) View citations (59) (1984)
16. Vector autoregressions and cointegration
    Chapter 47 in Handbook of Econometrics, 1986, vol. 4, pp 2843-2915 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Vector autoregressions and cointegration, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (1993) View citations (6) (1993)

1984

17. Time series and spectral methods in econometrics
    Chapter 17 in Handbook of Econometrics, 1984, vol. 2, pp 979-1022 View citations (20)