The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009

John Fernald (), Robert E. Hall, James H. Stock and Mark Watson

No 23543, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, even though the unemployment rate has essentially returned to a pre-crisis, normal level. We use a growth-accounting decomposition to explore explanations for the output shortfall, giving full treatment to cyclical effects that, given the depth of the recession, should have implied unusually fast growth. We find that the growth shortfall has almost entirely reflected two factors: the slow growth of total factor productivity, and the decline in labor force participation. Both factors reflect powerful adverse forces that are largely unrelated to the financial crisis and recession—and that were in play before the recession.

JEL-codes: E22 E24 E32 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff, nep-lma and nep-mac
Note: EFG LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (122)

Published as John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol 2017(1), pages 1-81.

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