NBER Working Papers

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35163: How Poverty Fell

Vincent J. Armentano, Paul Niehaus and Tom Vogl

35162: Why Bans Fail: Tipping Points and Australia's Social Media Ban

Leonardo Bursztyn, Angela L. Duckworth, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, Aaron Leonard, Filip Milojević, Christopher Roth and Cass Sunstein

35161: Shaping Society's Character: The Role of Schools in Developing Social and Emotional Skills

Sule Alan

35160: Adolescent Behavior, Learning, and Knowledge Diffusion: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Sule Alan, Kumar Biswas, Christina S. Hauser and Shwetlena Sabarwal

35159: Data Neutrality, Data Supply, and Market Competition

Hanming Fang and Soo Jin Kim

35158: Mosaics of Predictability

Lin Cong, Guanhao Feng, Jingyu He and Yuanzhi Wang

35157: Automation, Learning, and Career Dynamics

Hassan Afrouzi, Andres Blanco, Andrés Drenik and Erik Hurst

35156: Trade and the End of Antiquity

Johannes Boehm and Thomas Chaney

35155: When Does Automating AI Research Produce Explosive Growth? Feedback Loops in Innovation Networks

Tom Davidson, Basil Halperin, Thomas Houlden and Anton Korinek

35154: Replacement and Reputation

Navin Kartik, Elliot Lipnowski and Harry Pei

35153: AI Managed Household Portfolios: A Preliminary Report

Bruce I. Carlin, Ryan Israelsen and Christopher F. Wazzan

35152: Mothers, Schools, and the Making of American Human Capital Mobility

Lukas Althoff, Harriet M. Brookes Gray and Hugo Reichardt

35151: Retrospective Versus Prospective Meritocracy

Steven Durlauf

35150: Beliefs, Attention, and Investments in Early Childhood

Flavio Cunha, Snejana Nihtianova, Jessica Rood and Anja-Lize van der Merwe

35149: Firm Pay, Amenities, and Inequality

Sydnee Caldwell, Ingrid Haegele and Jörg Heining

35148: The Labor Market as an Equilibrium Newsvendor Problem

Alexandre Mas

35147: Learning by Mail: The Impact of Correspondence Schools in Early 20th Century America

Daniela Vidart

35146: Understanding Medicaid Managed Care: The Procured Competition Model

Mark Shepard and Jacob Wallace

35145: The Annuity Puzzle Revisited: Barriers, Behavior, and Policy Paths to Lifetime Income

Hal E. Hershfield, Suzanne Shu, Jeffrey Brown, Abigail Hurwitz, Moshe Arye. Milevsky, Olivia Mitchell and Tamiko Toland

35144: Characteristics of a Sufficient Statistic to Measure City Housing Prices

Daniel Broxterman, William Larson and Anthony Yezer

35143: How Artificial Intelligence Shapes Science: Evidence from AlphaFold

Ryan R. Hill and Carolyn Stein

35142: Seeing the Goal, Missing the Truth: Human Accountability for AI Bias

Sean S. Cao, Wei Jiang and Hui Xu

35141: The Microstructure of AI Diffusion: Evidence from Firms, Business Functions, and Worker Tasks

Kathryn Bonney, Cory L. Breaux, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, John Haltiwanger and Aditya A. Pande

35140: Who Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class

Benjamin Goldman, Jamie Gracie and Sonya Porter

35139: Filling the Gaps with MICE: Addressing Missing Data in Real Estate Price Indices

Miriam Steurer and Sabrina S. Spiegel

35138: Power to the Personnel? The Impacts of Managerial Discretion vs. Worker Democracy in Employee Recognition

Namrata Kala and Madeline McKelway

35137: Till the IRS Do Us Part: (Optimal) Taxation of Households

Hans Holter, Dirk Krueger and Serhiy Stepanchuk

35136: The State-Contingent Debt Premium: Evidence from French Public Bonds

Kris James Mitchener and Goncalo Pina

35135: The Value of Reliable Statistics

Nicholas Bloom, Erica Groshen, Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain

35134: Taxes and Financial Distress: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data

Mara Faccio and Stefano Manfredonia

35133: Technology Adoption and Optimal Policy

Fernando E. Alvarez, Francisco Buera and Nicholas Trachter

35132: The Effects of School Phone Bans: National Evidence from Lockable Pouches

Hunt Allcott, E. Jason Baron, Thomas Dee, Angela L. Duckworth, Matthew Gentzkow and Brian Jacob

35131: Wind Turbine Proximity and Health: Longitudinal Evidence from U.S. Households

Niklas Rott, Douglas Almond and Osea Giuntella

35130: The Success of the Embedded State in England

Leander Heldring, Davis Kedrosky, James Robinson and Matthias Weigand

35129: Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0

Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East

35128: Complementary Climate Policies for Supply and Demand

Geir B. Asheim and Bard Harstad

35127: Monetary Policy According to Households: Perceptions, Reactions and Channels

Francesco Grigoli, Damiano Sandri, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Coibion

35126: Industrial Policy with Development Characteristics: Fertilizer Policy in Times of Crisis

Wyatt Brooks and Kevin Donovan

35125: Sticky Traditions: Origin, Persistence, and Evolution of Cultural Norms

Paola Giuliano

35124: Rental Prices and the Cost of Living in the United States, 1914–2006

Ronan Lyons, Allison Shertzer and Rowena Gray

35123: Understanding Firms' AI Efforts and Their Economic Impact

Tania Babina

35122: Risky Insurance: Life-Cycle Insurance Portfolio Choice with Incomplete Markets

Joseph S. Briggs, Ciaran Rogers and Christopher Tonetti

35121: Comparative Advantage and Colonial Monopoly: The Political Economy of Exclusive Trading Companies

Sebastian Galiani, Ivan Lopez Cruz, Alessandra A. Palazzo and Gustavo Torrens

35120: Hysteresis and Selection in the Rise of Fascism: The ‘Ordinary Men’ of the Nazi Party

Luis Bosshart, Max Deter, Leander Heldring, Cathrin C. Mohr and Matthias Weigand

35119: How Reform Happens

Simeon Djankov, Edward Glaeser and Andrei Shleifer

35118: Gender-Specific Economic Shocks and Household Bargaining Power

Rania Gihleb, Osea Giuntella and Dor Morag

35117: Does Employment Slow Cognitive Decline? Evidence from Labor Market Shocks

Noah Arman Kouchekinia, David Neumark and Tim A. Bruckner

35116: Hedging Ambiguity with Pro-Social Preferences: an Illustration from Green Finance

Geoffrey Heal and Marcella Lucchetta

35115: On the Resilience of Payment Methods

Fernando E. Alvarez, David Argente and Diana Van Patten

35114: Intermediate Input Prices and the Labor Share

Juanma Castro-Vincenzi and Benny Kleinman

35113: A Blended Data Approach to Measuring Monthly Housing Starts: Satellite Imagery, Survey Data and More!

Nicole Czaplicki, Colin J. Shevlin, Hector R. Ferronato, Aidan D. Smith, Dwarakh V. Nayam, Lei Peng, Scott W. Springer and Doren Walker

35112: The Effect of Choice Screens on Mobile Browser Usage: Evidence from the EU Digital Markets Act

Jesper Akesson, Kush Amlani, Raul Cepeda Suarez, Emily Chissell, Stefan Hunt, Michael Luca and Gemma Petrie

35111: The Welfare Effects of Protecting Older Workers

Todd Morris, Stefan Staubli and Benoit Dostie

35110: How (un)Stable Are LLM Occupational Exposure Scores? Evidence from Multi-Model Replication

Michelle Yin, Hoa Vu and Claudia Persico

35109: Early Childcare Attendance and Cognitive skills in Adolescence

Ingvild Almås, Nina Drange, Costas Meghir and Henrik D. Zachrisson

35108: Effects of Expanding Contraceptive Choice: New Evidence from Virginia's Contraceptive Access Initiative

Jessica H. Kiser, Analisa Packham, Janelle Anthony, Evelyn Escobar and Emily Yeatts

35107: The Domestic Political Economy of War: Evidence from Russia

Alena Gorbuntsova, Gaurav Khanna and Sultan Mehmood

35106: China's Global Ownership

Jennie Bai, Luc Laeven, Yaojun Ke and Hong Ru

35105: Trends in Health Inequalities among Spanish Retirees

Cristina Bellés-Obrero, Manuel Flores, Pilar Garcia-Gomez, Sergi Jimenez-Martin and Judit Vall Castello

35104: Cross-Border Product Adoption: Individual Imports, Migrant Networks, and Domestic Retailers

David Argente, Esteban Méndez and Diana Van Patten

35103: Nudging Parents out the Door: The Impacts of Parental Encouragement on School Choice and Test Scores

Guthrie Gray-Lobe, Michael Kremer, Joost de Laat, Oluchi Mbonu and Cole Scanlon

35102: The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Insights from 180 Years of U.S. Trade Policy

Tamar den Besten, Régis Barnichon, Diego Känzig and Aayush Singh

35101: The Political Economy of Financial Crises

Charles Calomiris and Matthew Jaremski

35100: Measuring the Impact of Data Centers in the United States Economy: Monetary Damage from Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Nicholas Muller

35099: Organizational Targets in General Equilibrium

Joel P. Flynn, George Nikolakoudis and Karthik A. Sastry

35098: Treasury Supply Shocks: Propagation Through Debt Expansion and Maturity Adjustment

Huixin Bi, Maxime Phillot and Sarah Zubairy

35097: Health Inequalities among Retirees in the Netherlands

Adriaan Kalwij and Arie Kapteyn

35096: Declining Occupations and Career Outcomes in Norway

Erling Barth, Maria Hoen, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William Kerr

35095: Homemade Foreign Trading

Zhiguo He, Yuehan Wang and Xiaoquan Zhu

35094: Changes in Health Inequalities among Older Individuals in Japan

Takashi Oshio and Satoshi Shimizutani

35093: The Inefficient Pricing of News

Antoine Didisheim, Bryan T. Kelly, Mohammad Pourmohammadi and Hanqing Tian

35092: The Medical Expansion, Life Expectancy, and Endogenous Directed Technical Change

Leon Huetsch, Dirk Krueger and Alexander Ludwig

35091: Belief Dispersion and Entrepreneurial Entry

Joshua Gans

35090: Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates

Carola Binder, Dimitris Georgarakos, Pei Kuang and Li Tang

35089: Aging at the Very Top

Valentin Kecht, Alessandro Lizzeri and Farzad Saidi

35088: The Declining Local Bias of Entrepreneurship in the United States

Innessa Colaiacovo, Margaret G. Dalton, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William Kerr

35087: The Unseen Costs of Blue Skies: Pollutant Substitution and Biodiversity Loss

Joshua Graff Zivin, Siyuan Li, Huanhuan Wang and Zhiqiang Zhang

35086: If You Build It, They May Not Come: Willingness to Participate in Managed EV Charging

Fiona Burlig, James Bushnell and David Rapson

35085: Le Bureau des Légendes: A Dynamic Theory of Double Agents

Sebastian Galiani and Franco Mettola La Giglia

35084: Gender Mix and Team Performance: Evidence from Obstetrics

Ambar La Forgia and Manasvini Singh

35083: Demand-Driven Technical Change: Evidence from WFH Technologies

Steven Davis, Nicholas Bloom and Mihai A. Codreanu

35082: The Effect of Annuities on Longevity

Borja Larrain, Alessandro Previtero and Felipe Severino

35081: Impact Trickles Down: A General Equilibrium Theory of Stakeholder Exit and Engagement

Briana Chang and Harrison Hong

35080: Hospital Billing Regulations and Financial Well-Being: Evidence from California’s Fair Pricing Law

Yaa Akosa Antwi, Marion Aouad and Nathan Blascak

35079: How Have Universities Survived for Nearly a Millenium

David Cutler and Edward Glaeser

35078: The “Peace Dividend” of International Trade: A New Empirical Approach

Ling Feng, Qiuyue Huang, Zhiyuan Li and Christopher Meissner

35077: Bilateral Conflict Risk and Trade: Military Wars, Trade Wars, and Diplomatic Noise

Joshua Aizenman, Rodolphe Desbordes and Jamel Saadaoui

35076: Tariffs and the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

Stéphane Auray, Michael Devereux, Anthony M. Diercks, Aurélien Eyquem and Joon Kim

35075: The Impact of Maternal Education on Early Childhood Development

Moriam Khanam, Mohammad Hajizadeh and Casey Warman

35074: When Does Acquisition Integration Succeed? Evidence from Inside the Integration Black Box

Sinan Gokkaya, Xi Liu and René M. Stulz

35073: Understanding Support for Inefficient Environmental Policy Instruments

Chenxi Jiang, Maximiliano Lauletta, Ro’ee Levy, Joseph Shapiro and Dmitry Taubinsky

35072: Risk Preferences and the Willingness to Relocate to Danger: Evidence from Wartime Ukraine

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, Sophia Lobozynska, Iryna Skomorovych, Ulyana Vladychyn, Andriy Kovalyuk and Iryna Snovydovych

35071: The Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Regulation: New Evidence from a High-Frequency Approach

Thomas Drechsel and Ko Miura

35070: Birthright Citizenship and Youth Crime

Leander Andres, Stefan Bauernschuster, Gordon Dahl, Helmut Rainer and Simone Schüller

35069: Reason for Treason

Xinyu Fan, G Gary Richardson, Zhihao Xu and Sicheng Zhao

35068: High Schools and the Uneven Rise in American Opportunity

Alison Doxey, Ezra Karger and Peter Nencka

35067: Who Pays for Payments?

Mark L. Egan, Gregor Matvos, Amit Seru, Lulu Wang and Vincent Yao

35066: Zero Energy Day: How Nationwide Blackouts Affect the Economy

Luis E. Gonzales, Koichiro Ito and Mar Reguant

35065: Multimodal Transport Networks

Simon Fuchs and Woan Foong Wong

35064: Tariffs in 2025: Short-Run Impacts on the U.S. Economy

Pablo D. Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal