NBER Working Papers

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35632: Taxpayer Behavior in the Age of AI: A Field Experiment on Property Tax Appeals

Justin Holz, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Andrew Simon and Alejandro Zentner

35631: Selection into Medicine

Diane Alexander and Molly Schnell

35630: Tariffs, Investment, and the Missing Trade Collapse

Francesco Ferrante, Andrea Prestipino, Andrea Raffo and Michael Waugh

35629: Optimal Experimental Design and Estimation when Potential Outcomes are Bounded

Peter Hull

35628: Do Minimum Wages Help Workers in Poor and Low-Income Families?

David Neumark and Emma Wohl

35627: Provider Altruism and Medical Fraud: Evidence from an Audit Study of Malaria Treatment

Paul Gertler and Ada Kwan

35626: Outside Options and Labor Supply: Evidence from the Gig Economy

Sydnee Caldwell and Emily Oehlsen

35625: When Public Signals Backfire: Strategic Disclosure and Information Crowd-Out

Marty Haoyuan Chen and Ginger Zhe Jin

35624: Sticky Wage Norms and the Real Wage Cost of Unexpected Inflation

Erik Hurst, Christina Patterson, Nela Thomas Richardson and Ye Liv Wang

35623: Race and Redistricting in Local Governments

Carlos Fernando Avenancio-León, Daniel Jones and Ying Shi

35622: Virtual Tutoring with Computer-Assisted Learning: An Experiment in Take-Up and Learning

Philip Oreopoulos, Ruochong Dong and Nina Low

35621: Making AI Tutoring Productive: Evidence from a Mastery-Based Math Practice Experiment

Philip Oreopoulos, Michael Liut, Alp Sungu and Nina Low

35620: One Click Away: AI Tutoring with Khanmigo in a Two-Year School Experiment

Philip Oreopoulos and Nina Low

35619: Institutional Variation in Child Maltreatment Reporting

E. Jason Baron, Micah Y. Baum, Joseph J. Doyle, Maria Fitzpatrick, Brian Jacob and Joseph P. Ryan

35618: The Global Transition – The Impact of Demographics and AI on Economic Power

Seth G. Benzell, Laurence Kotlikoff and Victor Yifan Ye

35617: The Cov-lite Liquidity Advantage, Regulatory Pressures, and the Evolution of the Leveraged Loan Market

Robert Prilmeier and René M. Stulz

35616: Do Children Derail Women from the CEO Track?

Santiago Campos-Rodríguez and David Neumark

35615: Identifying Policy Causal Effects from Rule Changes

Ed Manuel and Christian Wolf

35614: Declining Occupations and Career Outcomes in the United States

Erling Barth, Maria Hoen, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William Kerr

35613: Short-Run Impacts of SNAP Restriction Waivers on Beverage Purchases

David Frisvold and Felipe Lozano Rojas

35612: Beliefs about Government Debt Valuation and Sustainability

Ricardo Delao and Wenhao Li

35611: Social Clubs and Political Office

Julien Labonne, Pablo Querubin, Martín Rossi, Sebastian M. Saiegh, Ivan San Miguel and Shanker Satyanath

35610: The Limits of Government Outsourcing: Property Tax Re-Assessments in India

Esther Duflo, Rema Hanna, Benjamin Olken and Shreya Tandon

35609: Exchange Rates, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth

Paul Bergin, Woo Jin Choi and Ju Hyun Pyun

35608: Monopsony Makes it Big

Sydnee Caldwell, Arindrajit Dube and Suresh Naidu

35607: Credit Card Banking

Itamar Drechsler, Hyeyoon Jung, Weiyu Peng, Dominik Supera and Guanyu Zhou

35606: Supplemental Medicare Insurance Coverage for Older Adults with Probable Dementia

Melissa McInerney, Lorena Moreno and Jennifer M. Mellor

35605: Search and Negotiation with Biased Beliefs in Consumer Credit Markets

Erik Berwart, Sean Higgins, Sheisha Kulkarni and Santiago Truffa

35604: Algorithm-Driven SVARs: Navigating the Wilderness of Big Data

Yucheng Yang and Tao Zha

35603: Teen Suicide and the Outcomes of Surviving Peers

Emily Cuddy, Janet Currie, Elisa Jácome and Lucy Manly

35602: Colleges, Assortative Mating, and Intergenerational Mobility in Twentieth-Century America

Ran Abramitzky, Santiago Perez and Joseph Price

35601: The Impact of Suicide Hotlines on Health: Evidence from 988 Implementation

Benjamin Hansen, Niketana Kannan and Jonathan Zhang

35600: Recall Fluency, Beliefs and Behavior

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Matthew O'Brien and Andrei Shleifer

35599: From Social Savings to Spatial Equilibrium: Evaluating Transportation Improvements in Quantitative Spatial Models

Treb Allen, Simon Fuchs and Woan Foong Wong

35598: Choosing To Fail: Managerial Liability, Risk Management and Voluntary Exits of Banks

Haelim Anderson, Charles Calomiris and Jennifer S. Rhee

35597: AI in a Fragmenting World

Barry Eichengreen, George Cui, Asmaa A. El-Ganainy, Yevgeniya Koriyenko, Elyad Shojaei, Li Zeng and Shihangyin Zhang

35596: The Effects of Ads on Beliefs and Implications for Consumer Search

Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, Ilya Morozov, Franklin She and Anna Tuchman

35595: Dynamic Effects of Trade

Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu and Stephen Redding

35594: Idea Rents and Firm Growth

Timo Boppart, Peter J. Klenow, Reiko Laski and Huiyu Li

35593: More Frequent Than You Think: Revisiting Capital Structure Adjustment

Zhiguo He, Peter DeMarzo and Qiping Xu

35592: The Intrinsic Valuation of Biodiversity Loss

Adrien Bilal, Noémie Pinardon-Touati and Conor Walsh

35591: Fetal Pollution Exposure, Cognitive Ability, and Gender-specific Parental Investment

Xin Zhang, Yixuan Wang, Xingyi Hu and Xi Chen

35590: The Perils of Bilateral Sovereign Debt

Francisco Roldán and Cesar Sosa-Padilla

35589: Income Shocks and Intrahousehold Dynamics: Evidence from a Guaranteed Income Experiment

Elizabeth Rhodes, David E. Broockman, Eva Vivalt, Patrick K. Krause, Sarah Miller and Alexander Bartik

35588: AI Agents and Prompt Engineering in Econometric Coding

Sebastian Galiani, Federico Ariel López and Raul A. Sosa

35587: Property Taxes and Housing Allocation Under Financial Constraints

Joshua Coven, Sebastian Golder, Arpit Gupta and Abdoulaye Ndiaye

35586: Staged Access and Liability for Dual-Use Artificial Intelligence

Joshua Gans

35585: Cycles of Infertility: Intergenerational Transmission and the Role of Assisted Reproduction

Viktoria Falk, Andreas Madestam and Emilia Simeonova

35584: The Displacement Effects of Domestic Outsourcing

Mayara Felix and Michael B. Wong

35583: Spending to Save: The Subscription Model for Eradicating Hepatitis C in Louisiana

Kevin Callison, Rena Conti, Jonathan Gruber and Jacob Wallace

35582: Immigrant Earnings Assimilation, 1981–2021

Randall Akee, Jimmy Chin and Daniel L. Crown

35581: How Steep is the Phillips Curve in Developing Economies? A Sufficient Statistics Approach and Estimates for India

Juan Herreño, Noémie Pinardon-Touati and Malte Thie

35580: Cautious Careers: Job Mobility under Incomplete Markets

Alex Clymo, Piotr Denderski, Yusuf Mercan and Benjamin Schoefer

35579: Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks, Bonds (and Options), Redux

Zhongtian Chen, Nikolai Roussanov, Xiaoliang Wang and Dongchen Zou

35578: Reconstructing a Century of U.S. Corporate Bonds: Credit Risk in Historical Perspective

Mohammad Ghaderi, Sébastien Plante, Nikolai Roussanov and Sang Byung Seo

35577: The Value Gap: Europe Cannot Scale

Bo Becker, Efraim Benmelech and João Monteiro

35576: Do Children's Genes Evoke Educational Expectations? Direct Genetic Effects on Parents' and Teachers' College Encouragement

Philipp Dierker and Dalton Conley

35575: Observability and Social Interactions in Consumption

Tullio Jappelli and Luigi Pistaferri

35574: AI Financial Advice: Supply, Demand, and Life Cycle Implications

Taha Choukhmane, Tim de Silva, Weidong Lin and Matthew Akuzawa

35573: Balancing Growth in a Warming World

Adrien Bilal, Thibault Ingrand and Diego Känzig

35572: A Currency Premium Puzzle

Tarek Hassan, Thomas Mertens and Jingye Wang

35571: Winning is Contagious: Social Learning and the Dynamics of Union Support

Ellora Derenoncourt, Arindrajit Dube, Suresh Naidu, Heather Sarsons and Niharika Singh

35570: Robust Signal Maximization in Spillover Experiments

Kirill Borusyak, Peter Hull and Evan M. Munro

35569: Fortunate Sons: Elite Political Selection in American History

James Feigenbaum, Andrew B. Hall, Daniel M. Thompson and Jesse Yoder

35568: The Economics of Civil Service Protections

Guo Xu

35567: The Value of Behavioral Policies

John List, Matthias Rodemeier, Sutanuka Roy and Gregory K. Sun

35566: Childhood Cognitive and Behavioral Impairments and Adult Health

Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan and Nancy Reichman

35565: Common Ownership and Collusion

Vincent Abraham, Florian Ederer and Catarina Marvao

35564: Improving Financial Literacy: From Corporate Finance to Personal Finance

Annamaria Lusardi

35563: Incomplete Information and Self-Fulfilling Inflation Dynamics—Lucas meets Keynes

Jess Benhabib, Pengfei Wang and Yi Wen

35562: Monetary Policy in Mandarin Capitalism

Jeffery (Jinfan) Chang and Wei Xiong

35561: The Anatomy of Tariff Pass-through into Consumer Prices

Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David Weinstein

35560: Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan, Ahmet Gulek and Jens Hainmueller

35559: Replaceable but Employed: Automation and the Meaning of Work

Joshua Gans

35558: Unpacking Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in a Large-Scale Dropout-Prevention Experiment

Thomas Dee, Chloe Gibbs, Rebecca Margolit-Chan, Lillian Morrell and James Sullivan

35557: Demand for Safety in the Crypto Ecosystem

Murillo Campello, Angela Gallo, Lira Mota and Tammaro Terracciano

35556: Meritocracy and the Networks It Forged: China’s Imperial Examination

Ying Bai and Ruixue Jia

35555: The United States and Its Creditors: Assessing Foreign Demand for U.S. Assets

Anusha Chari and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

35554: A Theory of Firm Wage Dynamics

Marc de la Barrera and Masao Fukui

35553: Sharing the Burden: The Impacts of Pharmacy Sector Reforms on the Labor Market for Pharmacists in Portugal

David Card, Ana Rute Cardoso and Pedro Luis Silva

35552: The Equilibrium Impact of Credit Frictions: Evidence from Default Risk Using Firm-Level Data

Timothy Besley, Peter John Lambert, Isabelle A. Michalski-Roland and John van Reenen

35551: Chinese Sputnik Moments?

Josh Lerner, Namrata Narain, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Amit Seru and Zunda Winston Xu

35550: Ambiguous Attribution: Theory and Evidence

Ricardo Alonso, Monica Martinez-Bravo, Gerard Padró I Miquel, Carlos Sanz and Silvia Vannutelli

35549: Selecting Innovation Funding Mechanisms: A Framework for Policymakers

Matthew S. Clancy, Matthew Esche, Siddhartha Haria, Claire T. McMahon, Christopher Snyder and Caleb Watney

35548: Reserves and the Buyer of Last Resort

Frédéric Boissay and Harald Uhlig

35547: Designing Around Selection: Identification and Inference Under Multi-Dimensional Unobserved Heterogeneity

Brent R. Hickman, John List, Ian Muir and Gregory K. Sun

35546: Time Travel on Professional Profiles

Nicholas Bloom, Gideon Moore, Lisa Simon and Caelan Wilkie-Rogers

35545: Detecting Critical Junctures as They Unfold: Foundations, Measurement, and Applications from 120 Years of Reporting

Michael Callen, Gregory Levy, Saipremnath Muthukumaran, Jonathan L. Weigel and Noam Yuchtman

35544: Two Selection Problems, One Bias Term: Experimental Sign-Up Is Treatment Choice in Disguise

John List

35543: Tying Incentives to Information: Diagnosis-Contingent Contracts and Biased Beliefs in Healthcare

Maria Dieci, Paul Gertler, Jonathan Kolstad and Carlos Paramo

35542: Winners and Losers: Competition, Creative Destruction, and Labor Income Risk

Brice C. Green, Leonid Kogan, Dimitris Papanikolaou and Lawrence Schmidt

35541: Financial Interdependence and Currency Internationalization

Zhengyang Jiang

35540: Predictive Risk Scores in the Public Sector: Experimental Evidence from Child-Protection Investigations

E. Jason Baron, Arkadev Ghosh and Richard Lombardo

35539: The China Backlash: Quantifying the Narrative Discourse on China

Mert Geyiktepe and Dani Rodrik

35538: Cognitive Limitations and Long-Term Care Use in the Netherlands: Evidence from the Lifelines Cohort Study

Gaia Bagnasco, Pieter Bakx, Stijn Coremans and Bram Wouterse

35537: Effects of Lottery Incentives for Influenza Vaccination: Evidence from a Large-Scale Randomized Trial and Causal Forest Analysis

Kelsey Moran, Gail M. Rosenbaum, Amir Goren, Michelle N. Meyer, Christopher F. Chabris and Joseph J. Doyle

35536: Does Progressivity Raise Tax Capacity? Experimental Evidence from the D.R. Congo

Gabriel Tourek, Arthur Laroche, Augustin Bergeron, Joana Naritomi, Jonathan L. Weigel and Marina Mavungu Ngoma

35535: The Scientific Return of Biodiversity Conservation: Evidence from Fishing Bans Along the Yangtze River

Minhao Chen, Lin Cong, Haoyu Gao, G. Karolyi and Hui Wang

35534: Personal Holding Companies, Tax Progressivity, and Inequality

Marius A. K. Ring, David G. Seim and Gabriel Zucman

35533: Early Life Healthcare Access and Later-life Mortality: Evidence Using Openings of County Health Departments

Hamid Noghanibehambari and Jason Fletcher