NBER Working Papers

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33038: Parents' Earnings and the Returns to Universal Pre-Kindergarten

John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson, Xiaoyang Ye and Seth D. Zimmerman

33037: Trading Volume Alpha

Ruslan Goyenko, Bryan T. Kelly, Tobias J. Moskowitz, Yinan Su and Chao Zhang

33036: Decarbonizing Heat: The Impact of Heat Pumps and a Time-of-Use Heat Pump Tariff on Energy Demand

Louise Bernard, Andy Hackett, Robert D. Metcalfe and Andrew Schein

33035: Understanding the Heterogeneity of Intergenerational Mobility across Neighborhoods

Neil A. Cholli, Steven N. Durlauf, Rasmus Landersø and Salvador Navarro

33034: On the Optimal Allocation of Policy-Making

Alessandro Dovis, Rishabh Kirpalani and Guillaume M. Sublet

33033: Theorizing with Large Language Models

Matteo Tranchero, Cecil-Francis Brenninkmeijer, Arul Murugan and Abhishek Nagaraj

33032: The Effects of “Buy American”: Electric Vehicles and the Inflation Reduction Act

Hunt Allcott, Reigner Kane, Maximilian S. Maydanchik, Joseph S. Shapiro and Felix Tintelnot

33031: Do Workers Undervalue COVID-19 Risk? Evidence from Wages and Death Certificate Data

Cong T. Gian, Sumedha Gupta, Kosali I. Simon, Ryan Sullivan and Coady Wing

33030: Old and Connected versus Young and Creative: Networks and the Diffusion of New Scientific Ideas

Wei Cheng and Bruce A. Weinberg

33029: Cross-Country Analysis of Labor Markets during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Robert Breunig, Wei Cheng, Laura Montenovo, Kyoung Hoon Lee, Bruce A. Weinberg and Yinjunjie Zhang

33028: The Economic Impacts of Clean Power

Costas Arkolakis and Conor Walsh

33027: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow? Toward an Understanding of Fade-out in Early Childhood Education Programs

John A. List and Haruka Uchida

33026: A Flexible, Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Difference-in-Differences Estimator for Repeated Cross-Sections

Partha Deb, Edward C. Norton, Jeffrey M. Wooldridge and Jeffrey E. Zabel

33025: 12 Best Practices for Leveraging Generative AI in Experimental Research

Samuel Chang, Andrew Kennedy, Aaron Leonard and John A. List

33024: Carbon Tariffs 101

Claire Brunel and Arik Levinson

33023: Transmission of Family Influence

Sadegh S.M. Eshaghnia, James J. Heckman, Rasmus Landersø and Rafeh Qureshi

33022: Is Distance from Innovation a Barrier to the Adoption of Artificial Intelligence?

Jennifer Hunt, Iain M. Cockburn and James Bessen

33021: The ABC’s of Who Benefits from Working with AI: Ability, Beliefs, and Calibration

Andrew Caplin, David J. Deming, Shangwen Li, Daniel J. Martin, Philip Marx, Ben Weidmann and Kadachi Jiada Ye

33020: Describing Deferred Acceptance and Strategyproofness to Participants: Experimental Analysis

Yannai A. Gonczarowski, Ori Heffetz, Guy Ishai and Clayton Thomas

33019: The Impact of the Chinese Exclusion Act on the Economic Development of the Western U.S

Joe Long, Carlo Medici, Nancy Qian and Marco Tabellini

33018: Misperceptions and Demand for Democracy under Authoritarianism

Daron Acemoglu, Cevat Giray Aksoy, Ceren Baysan, Carlos Molina and Gamze Zeki

33017: Online Business Models, Digital Ads, and User Welfare

Daron Acemoglu, Daniel Huttenlocher, Asuman Ozdaglar and James Siderius

33016: Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections

Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

33015: The Impact of Intergenerational Transfers on the Distribution of Wealth: An International Comparison

Charles Yuji Horioka

33014: The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households' Beliefs and Actions

Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion and Geoff Kenny

33013: Dynamically Optimized Sequential Experimentation (DOSE) for Estimating Economic Preference Parameters

Jonathan Chapman, Erik Snowberg, Stephanie W. Wang and Colin Camerer

33012: APT or “AIPT”? The Surprising Dominance of Large Factor Models

Antoine Didisheim, Shikun (Barry) Ke, Bryan T. Kelly and Semyon Malamud

33011: Fear and Dreams: Understanding the Non-Institutional sources of Leader Strategy

Maria Angélica Bautista, Juan Galán, James Robinson, Rafael F. Torres and Ragnar Torvik

33010: Social Interactions, Information, and Preferences for Schools: Experimental Evidence from Los Angeles

Christopher Campos

33009: Intergenerational Transmission of Occupation: Lessons from the United States Army

Kyle Greenberg, Matthew Gudgeon, Adam Isen, Corbin L. Miller and Richard Patterson

33008: The Unintended Consequences of Merit-based Teacher Selection: Evidence from Large-scale Reform in Colombia

Matias Busso, Sebastián Montaño, Juan Munoz-Morales and Nolan G. Pope

33007: Estimating the Regional Welfare Impact of Tariff Changes: Application to the United States

Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong

33006: Cross-Border Shopping: Evidence and Welfare Implications for Switzerland

Ariel Burstein, Sarah Lein and Jonathan Vogel

33005: Do Elite Universities Overpay Their Faculty?

Cesar Luis Garro-Marin, Shulamit Kahn and Kevin Lang

33004: Finance Without Exotic Risk

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer

33003: Currency Centrality in Equity Markets, Exchange Rates and Global Financial Cycles

Helene Rey, Vania Stavrakeva and Jenny Tang

33002: Child Penalties and Parental Role Models: Classroom Exposure Effects

Henrik Kleven, Giulia Olivero and Eleonora Patacchini

33001: Financial Advice and Investor Beliefs: Experimental Evidence on Active vs. Passive Strategies

Antoinette Schoar and Yang Sun

33000: Capital-Skill Complementarity in Firms and in the Aggregate Economy

Giuseppe Berlingieri, Filippo Boeri, Danial Lashkari and Jonathan Vogel

32999: Welfare in the Volunteer’s Dilemma

Marco Battaglini and Thomas Palfrey

32998: Interdealer Price Dispersion and Intermediary Capacity

Andrea Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic and Shuo Liu

32997: Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings Inequality

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Richard Rogerson

32996: Bridging the Gaps: The Impact of Interregional Transmission on Emissions and Reliability

Audun Botterud, Christopher Knittel, John Parsons, Juan Ramon Senga and Drew Story

32995: The Efficiency of Dynamic Electricity Prices

Andrew J. Hinchberger, Mark R. Jacobsen, Christopher Knittel, James Sallee and Arthur A. van Benthem

32994: Nonparametric Estimation of Demand with Switching Costs: the Case of Habitual Brand Loyalty

Xinyao Kong, Jean-Pierre H. Dubé and Øystein Daljord

32993: China: Autocracy 2.0

David Yang

32992: Equity and Efficiency in Technology Adoption: Evidence from Digital Health

Itzik Fadlon, Parag Agnihotri, Christopher Longhurst and Ming Tai-Seale

32991: Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents

Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie and Ludwig Straub

32990: Cultural Remittances and Modern Fertility

Mickael Melki, Hillel Rapoport, Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg

32989: Privacy Protection and Accuracy: What Do We Know? Do We Know Things?? Let's Find Out!

Evan Totty and Thor Watson

32988: Evaluating Policy Counterfactuals: A VAR-Plus Approach

Tomás E. Caravello, Alisdair McKay and Christian Wolf

32987: Theodore Roosevelt, the Election of 1912, and the Founding of the Federal Reserve

Matthew Jaremski and David C. Wheelock

32986: Do Investor Differences Impact Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets?

Ester Faia, Karen Lewis and Haonan Zhou

32985: Are We Adapting to Climate Change?

Marshall Burke, Mustafa Zahid, Mariana C. M. Martins, Christopher W. Callahan, Richard Lee, Tumenkhusel Avirmed, Sam Heft-Neal, Mathew Kiang, Solomon M. Hsiang and David Lobell

32984: Investing in Vaccines to Mitigate Harm from COVID-19 and Future Pandemics

Rachel Glennerster, Catherine Che, Sarrin M. Chethik, Claire T. McMahon and Christopher Snyder

32983: On the Identifying Power of Generalized Monotonicity for Average Treatment Effects

Yuehao Bai, Shunzhuang Huang, Sarah Moon, Azeem Shaikh and Edward Vytlacil

32982: Mining Chinese Historical Sources At Scale: A Machine Learning-Approach to Qing State Capacity

Wolfgang Keller, Carol H. Shiue and Sen Yan

32981: The Economics of Recycling Heterogeneity

Don Fullerton and Thomas Kinnaman

32980: Economic Policy Challenges for the Age of AI

Anton Korinek

32979: Synthetic Data and Social Science Research: Accuracy Assessments and Practical Considerations from the SIPP Synthetic Beta

Jordan C. Stanley and Evan Totty

32978: "Despair" and Death in the United States

Christopher Ruhm

32977: Who should work how much?

Timo Boppart, Per Krusell and Jonna Olsson

32976: Exchange Rates, Natural Rates, and the Price of Risk

Rohan Kekre and Moritz Lenel

32975: The Selective Disclosure of Evidence: An Experiment

Agata Farina, Guillaume Fréchette, Alessandro Ispano, Alessandro Lizzeri and Jacopo Perego

32974: Entry Costs Rise with Growth

Peter J. Klenow and Huiyu Li

32973: Behavioral Attenuation

Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber, Ryan Oprea and Jeffrey Yang

32972: Perry Preschool at 50: What Lessons Should Be Drawn and Which Criticisms Ignored?

Alison W. Baulos, Jorge Luis Garcia and James J. Heckman

32971: Health Inequality and Economic Disparities by Race, Ethnicity, and Gender

Nicolò Russo, Rory McGee, Mariacristina De Nardi, Margherita Borella and Ross Abram

32970: Moving to Opportunity, Together

Seema Jayachandran, Lea Nassal, Matthew Notowidigdo, Marie Paul, Heather Sarsons and Elin Sundberg

32969: A Secure Query System to Improve Access to Individual Income Tax Data

Amy O'Hara, Stephanie Straus, Ron Borzekowski, Paul Arnsberger and Barry Johnson

32968: Experimentally Validating Welfare Evaluation of School Vouchers

Peter Arcidiacono, Karthik Muralidharan and John Singleton

32967: Of Markets and Marriages: A Multidisciplinary, Multibook Review Essay of Recent Work on the Causes of U.S. Poverty

Elizabeth Ananat

32966: The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and David Deming

32965: Patent Hunters

Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun, Katie Moon and Paula Suh

32964: Do Higher Tipped Minimum Wages Reduce Race, Ethnic, or Gender Earnings Gaps for Restaurant Workers?

David Neumark and Emma Wohl

32963: Climate Change through the Lens of Macroeconomic Modeling

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Kenneth Gillingham and Simon Scheidegger

32962: Aid for Incumbents: The Electoral Consequences of COVID-19 Relief

Jeffrey Clemens, Julia A. Payson and Stan Veuger

32961: Optimal Financing of Government Purchases

Andrew Abel and Stavros Panageas

32960: Green Bonds: New Label, Same Projects

Pauline Lam and Jeffrey Wurgler

32959: The Impact of Early Childhood Parenting Interventions on Child Learning: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Kimberly Dadisman, Andre Nickow and Philip Oreopoulos

32958: The Distributional Consequences of Trade: Evidence from the Grain Invasion

Stephan Heblich, Stephen Redding and Yanos Zylberberg

32957: The Resilience of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) Countries During ECB’s Monetary Cycles

Joshua Aizenman and Jamel Saadaoui

32956: Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs

Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell, Chen Lian and Christina Patterson

32955: Measuring the Costs and Benefits of Regulation

Matilde Bombardini, Francesco Trebbi and Miao Ben Zhang

32954: Inclusive Teaching: Spotting Social Isolation in the Classroom

Sule Alan, Michela Carlana and Marinella Leone

32953: The Increasing Cost of Buying American

Matilde Bombardini, Andres Gonzalez-Lira, Bingjing Li and Chiara Motta

32952: Lee Bounds With Multilayered Sample Selection

Kory Kroft, Ismael Mourifié and Atom Vayalinkal

32951: Putting the "Finance" into "Public Finance": A Theory of Capital Gains Taxation

Mark Aguiar, Benjamin Moll and Florian Scheuer

32950: Hell with the Lid Off: Racial Segregation and Environmental Equity in America’s Most Polluted City

Spencer Banzhaf, William Mathews and Randall Walsh

32949: Information and Market Power in DeFi Intermediation

Pablo Azar, Adrian Casillas and Maryam Farboodi

32947: Hidden Debt Revelations

Sebastian Horn, David Mihalyi, Philipp Nickol and Cesar Sosa-Padilla

32946: Social Status, Economic Development and Female Labor Force (Non) Participation

Kaivan Munshi and Swapnil Singh

32945: Inflation Expectation and Cryptocurrency Investment

Lin Cong, Pulak Ghosh, Jiasun Li and Qihong Ruan

32944: Cournot Competition, Informational Feedback, and Real Efficiency

Lin Cong, Xiaohong Huang, Siguang Li and Jian Ni

32943: Work from Home and Disability Employment

Nicholas Bloom, Gordon Dahl and Dan-Olof Rooth

32942: Expected EPS × Trailing P/E

Itzhak Ben-David and Alex Chinco

32941: Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies

Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Jérôme Schäfer

32940: Data Privacy for Record Linkage and Beyond

Shurong Lin and Eric Kolaczyk

32939: The Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Household Expectations and Spending

Olena Kostyshyna and Luba Petersen

32938: Firm Productivity and Learning in the Digital Economy: Evidence from Cloud Computing

James M. Brand, Mert Demirer, Connor Finucane and Avner A. Kreps