NBER Working Papers

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30162: The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany

Johannes Schmieder, Till von Wachter and Jörg Heining

30161: Investing with the Government: A Field Experiment in China

Emanuele Colonnelli, Bo Li and Ernest Liu

30160: The Big Tech Lending Model

Lei Liu, Guangli Lu and Wei Xiong

30159: Is Our Fiscal System Discouraging Marriage? A New Look at the Marriage Tax

Elias Ilin, Laurence Kotlikoff and Melinda Pitts

30158: Heterogeneous Returns to Active Labour Market Programs for Indigenous Populations

Donna Feir, Kelly Foley and Maggie Jones

30157: Moral Universalism: Global Evidence

Alexander Cappelen, Benjamin Enke and Bertil Tungodden

30156: Estimating the Effect of Easements on Agricultural Production

Nicole Karwowski

30155: NIH Grant Expansion, Ancestral Diversity and Scientific Discovery in Genomics Research

Wei Fu, Shin-Yi Chou and Li-San Wang

30154: Inefficient Automation

Martin Beraja and Nathan Zorzi

30153: Climate Change and Downstream Water Quality in Agricultural Production: The Case of Nutrient Runoff to the Gulf of Mexico

Levan Elbakidze, Yuelu Xu, Philip Gassman, Jeffrey G. Arnold and Haw Yen

30152: Unemployment Insurance, Starting Salaries, and Jobs

Gordon Dahl and Matthew Knepper

30151: Tax Knowledge and Tax Manipulation: A Unifying Model

Ashley Craig and Joel Slemrod

30150: Strategic Investment under Uncertainty with First- and Second-mover Advantages

Min Dai, Zhaoli Jiang and Neng Wang

30149: Four Facts about Human Capital

David Deming

30148: Take-up of Social Benefits

Wonsik Ko and Robert Moffitt

30147: The Returns to Face-to-Face Interactions: Knowledge Spillovers in Silicon Valley

David Atkin, M. Keith Chen and Anton Popov

30146: Estimating Discrete Games with Many Firms and Many Decisions: An Application to Merger and Product Variety

Ying Fan and Chenyu Yang

30145: Intangible Marketing Capital

Bart Bronnenberg, Jean-Pierre H. Dubé and Chad Syverson

30144: Bottlenecks for Evidence Adoption

Stefano DellaVigna, Woojin Kim and Elizabeth Linos

30143: Growing Apart: Declining Within- and Across-Locality Insurance in Rural China

Orazio Attanasio, Costas Meghir, Corina Mommaerts and Yu Zheng

30142: Policy Diffusion and Polarization across U.S. States

Stefano DellaVigna and Woojin Kim

30141: Health Care Centralization: The Health Impacts of Obstetric Unit Closures in the US

Stefanie Fischer, Heather Royer and Corey White

30140: An Equilibrium Model of the Impact of Increased Public Investment in Early Childhood Education

Jonathan Borowsky, Jessica H. Brown, Elizabeth Davis, Chloe Gibbs, Chris M. Herbst, Aaron Sojourner, Erdal Tekin and Matthew Wiswall

30139: Vaccination Policy, Delayed Care, and Health Expenditures

Erkmen Aslim, Wei Fu, Chia-Lun Liu and Erdal Tekin

30138: Targeting Impact versus Deprivation

Johannes Haushofer, Paul Niehaus, Carlos Paramo, Edward Miguel and Michael Walker

30137: Adapting to Flood Risk: Evidence from a Panel of Global Cities

Sahil Gandhi, Matthew Kahn, Rajat Kochhar, Somik Lall and Vaidehi Tandel

30136: Measuring Human Capital

Katharine Abraham and Justine Mallatt

30135: Historical Newspaper Data: A Researcher’s Guide and Toolkit

Brian Beach and W Hanlon

30134: Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics

Mark Gertler, Christopher K. Huckfeldt and Antonella Trigari

30133: Cognitive Endurance as Human Capital

Christina Brown, Supreet Kaur, Geeta Kingdon and Heather Schofield

30132: A Monetary Policy Asset Pricing Model

Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek

30131: Financing Infrastructure in the Shadow of Expropriation

Viral Acharya, Cecilia Parlatore and Suresh Sundaresan

30130: Discrete-Choice Models and Representative Consumer Theory

Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, Joonhwi Joo and Kyeongbae Kim

30129: The Distributional Impacts of a VMT-Gas Tax Swap

Gilbert Metcalf

30128: Risk Pooling and Precautionary Saving in Village Economies

Marcel Fafchamps and Aditya Shrinivas

30127: Structural Change Within versus Across Firms: Evidence from the United States

Xiang Ding, Teresa Fort, Stephen Redding and Peter Schott

30126: Accelerating Vaccine Innovation for Emerging Infectious Diseases via Parallel Discovery

Joseph Barberio, Jacob Becraft, Zied Ben Chaouch, Dimitris Bertsimas, Tasuku Kitada, Michael Lingzhi Li, Andrew Lo, Kevin Shi and Qingyang Xu

30125: The Impact of Minority Representation at Mortgage Lenders

W Frame, Ruidi Huang, Erik J. Mayer and Adi Sunderam

30124: Nutrient Pollution and U.S. Agriculture: Causal Effects, Integrated Assessment, and Implications of Climate Change

Konstantinos Metaxoglou and Aaron Smith

30123: A National Estimate of Irrigation Canal Lining and Piping Water Conservation

R. Aaron Hrozencik, Nicholas A. Potter and Steven Wallander

30122: Cover Crops, Drought, Yield and Risk: an Analysis of U.S. Soybean Production

Fengxia Dong

30121: Weather, Climate, and Technology Adoption: An Application to Drought-Tolerant Corn in the United States

Jonathan R. McFadden, David J. Smith and Steven Wallander

30120: (Co-)Working in Close Proximity: Knowledge Spillovers and Social Interactions

Maria P. Roche, Alexander Oettl and Christian Catalini

30119: Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting

Osea Giuntella, Lorenzo Rotunno and Luca Stella

30118: How Undervalued is the Covid-19 Vaccine? Evidence from Discrete Choice Experiments and VSL Benchmarks

Patrick Carlin, Brian E. Dixon, Kosali Simon, Ryan Sullivan and Coady Wing

30117: Escaping Secular Stagnation with Unconventional Monetary Policy

Luba Petersen and Ryan Rholes

30116: Comparing Past and Present Inflation

Marijn Bolhuis, Judd N. L. Cramer and Lawrence Summers

30115: Factors Influencing the Choice of Pension Distribution at Retirement

Robert L. Clark and Olivia Mitchell

30114: The Race Between Tax Enforcement and Tax Planning: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Chile

Sebastián Bustos, Dina Pomeranz, Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, José Vila-Belda and Gabriel Zucman

30113: Who Benefits from Meritocracy?

Diana Moreira and Santiago Perez

30112: Mothers as Insurance: Family Spillovers in WIC

Marianne Bitler, Janet Currie, Hilary Hoynes, Krista Ruffini, Lisa Schulkind and Barton Willage

30111: Near-Rational Equilibria in Heterogeneous-Agent Models: A Verification Method

Leonid Kogan and Indrajit Mitra

30110: Opioid Use and Employment Outcomes: Evidence from the U.S. Military

Abby E. Alpert, Steve Schwab and Benjamin Ukert

30109: Cutting Out the Middleman: The Structure of Chains of Intermediation

Matthew Grant and Meredith Startz

30108: Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull and Michal Kolesár

30107: Gender and Underrepresented Minority Differences in Research Funding

Laura Cruz-Castro, Donna Ginther and Luis Sanz-Menendez

30106: Days of Work Over a Half Century: The Rise of the Four-day Week

Daniel Hamermesh and Jeff Biddle

30105: The Effects of Advanced Degrees on the Wage Rates, Hours, Earnings and Job Satisfaction of Women and Men

Joseph Altonji, John Humphries and Ling Zhong

30104: Non-Covid Excess Deaths, 2020-21: Collateral Damage of Policy Choices?

Casey Mulligan and Robert D. Arnott

30103: Maternal Mortality and Women’s Political Power

Sonia Bhalotra, Damian Clarke, Joseph Gomes and Atheendar Venkataramani

30102: Microgiving with Digital Platforms

Xiheng Jiang, Jianwei Xing, Jintao Xu and Eric Zou

30101: Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020

Ellora Derenoncourt, Chi Hyun Kim, Moritz Kuhn and Moritz Schularick

30100: Gender Pay Gap across Cultures

Natasha Burns, Kristina Minnick, Jeffry Netter and Laura Starks

30099: Dividend Taxes, Firm Growth, and the Allocation of Capital

Adrien Matray

30098: Right-to-Work Laws, Unionization, and Wage Setting

Nicole Fortin, Thomas Lemieux and Neil Lloyd

30097: The Effects of Alcohol Excise Tax Increases by Drinking Level and by Income Level

Henry Saffer, Markus Gehrsitz and Michael Grossman

30096: Inflation Past, Present and Future: Fiscal Shocks, Fed Response, and Fiscal Limits

John Cochrane

30095: Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution

Joseph Altonji, Disa Hynsjo and Ivan Vidangos

30094: Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models

Gizem Kosar and Cormac O'Dea

30093: Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions

Daniel J. Cooley and Steven Smith

30092: Internal Disagreement and Disruptive Technologies

Joshua Gans

30091: A Theory of Visionary Disruption

Joshua Gans

30090: The Effects of Public Housing on Children: Evidence from Colombia

Adriana Camacho, Valentina Duque, Michael Gilraine and Fabio Sanchez Torres

30089: The Rest of the World’s Dollar-Weighted Return on U.S. Treasurys

Zhengyang Jiang, Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig

30088: Grads on the Go: Measuring College-Specific Labor Markets for Graduates

Johnathan G. Conzelmann, Steven W. Hemelt, Brad Hershbein, Shawn M. Martin, Andrew Simon and Kevin Stange

30087: Who Holds Sovereign Debt and Why It Matters

Xiang Fang, Bryan Hardy and Karen Lewis

30086: Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Reduce Profit Shifting by US Multinational Companies?

Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Petr Janský and Gabriel Zucman

30085: New Schools and New Classmates: The Disruption and Peer Group Effects of School Reassignment

Darryl V. Hill, Rodney P. Hughes, Matthew A. Lenard, David D. Liebowitz and Lindsay C. Page

30084: Causal Inference During a Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina

Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle

30083: Robbing Peter to Pay Paul? The Redistribution of Wealth Caused by Rent Control

Kenneth Ahern and Marco Giacoletti

30082: Decarbonization and Electrification in the Long Run

Stephen Holland, Erin Mansur and Andrew Yates

30081: Creating American Farmland: Governance Institutions and Investment in Agricultural Drainage

Eric Edwards and Walter N. Thurman

30080: Producer Beliefs and Conservation: The Impact of Perceived Water Scarcity on Irrigation Technology Adoption

Joey Blumberg, Christopher Goemans and Dale Manning

30079: The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?

Alberto Alesina and Marco Tabellini

30078: The “College Gap” in Marriage and Children’s Family Structure

Melissa Kearney

30077: Creative Destruction? Impact of E-Commerce on the Retail Sector

Sudheer Chava, Alexander Oettl, Manpreet Singh and Linghang Zeng

30076: A Penny for Your Thoughts

W Hanlon, Stephan Heblich, Ferdinando Monte and Martin Schmitz

30075: Boundary Discontinuity Methods and Policy Spillovers

Ekaterina S. Jardim, Mark Long, Robert Plotnick, Emma van Inwegen, Jacob Vigdor and Hilary Wething

30074: The Labor Market Impacts of Technological Change: From Unbridled Enthusiasm to Qualified Optimism to Vast Uncertainty

David Autor

30073: The Endowment Effect and Collateralized Loans

Kevin Carney, Michael Kremer, Xinyue Lin and Gautam Rao

30072: A Structural Approach to High-Frequency Event Studies: The Fed and Markets as Case History

Francesco Bianchi, Sydney Ludvigson and Sai Ma

30071: Idiosyncrasy as a Leading Indicator

Randall Morck, Bernard Yeung and Lu Y. Zhang

30070: The Crime Effect of Refugees

Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, Naci Mocan, Semih Tumen and Belgi Turan

30069: Agricultural Crises and Government Responses Between the World Wars in the Atlantic Trading Network

Price Fishback

30068: Urban Sprawl and Social Capital: Evidence from Indonesian Cities

Andrea Civelli, Arya Gaduh, Alexander Rothenberg and Yao Wang

30067: Safety Nets and Social Welfare Expenditures in World Economic History

Price Fishback

30066: Markets, Governments, and the Institutional Structure of Social Welfare Expenditures in the United States and Sweden in the 20th Century

Price Fishback

30065: Bayesian Persuasion with Lie Detection

Florian Ederer and Weicheng Min

30064: Reserve System Design for Allocation of Scarce Medical Resources in a Pandemic: Some Perspectives from the Field

Parag Pathak, Govind Persad, Tayfun Sönmez and Utku Unver

30063: Safeguarding Consumers Through Minimum Quality Standards: Milk Inspections and Urban Mortality, 1880-1910

D. Mark Anderson, Kerwin Kofi Charles, Michael McKelligott and Daniel Rees