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NBER Working Papers

From National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A..
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30162: The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany Downloads
Johannes Schmieder, Till von Wachter and Jörg Heining
30161: Investing with the Government: A Field Experiment in China Downloads
Emanuele Colonnelli, Bo Li and Ernest Liu
30160: The Big Tech Lending Model Downloads
Lei Liu, Guangli Lu and Wei Xiong
30159: Is Our Fiscal System Discouraging Marriage? A New Look at the Marriage Tax Downloads
Elias Ilin, Laurence Kotlikoff and Melinda Pitts
30158: Heterogeneous Returns to Active Labour Market Programs for Indigenous Populations Downloads
Donna Feir, Kelly Foley and Maggie Jones
30157: Moral Universalism: Global Evidence Downloads
Alexander Cappelen, Benjamin Enke and Bertil Tungodden
30156: Estimating the Effect of Easements on Agricultural Production Downloads
Nicole Karwowski
30155: NIH Grant Expansion, Ancestral Diversity and Scientific Discovery in Genomics Research Downloads
Wei Fu, Shin-Yi Chou and Li-San Wang
30154: Inefficient Automation Downloads
Martin Beraja and Nathan Zorzi
30153: Climate Change and Downstream Water Quality in Agricultural Production: The Case of Nutrient Runoff to the Gulf of Mexico Downloads
Levan Elbakidze, Yuelu Xu, Philip Gassman, Jeffrey G. Arnold and Haw Yen
30152: Unemployment Insurance, Starting Salaries, and Jobs Downloads
Gordon Dahl and Matthew Knepper
30151: Tax Knowledge and Tax Manipulation: A Unifying Model Downloads
Ashley Craig and Joel Slemrod
30150: Strategic Investment under Uncertainty with First- and Second-mover Advantages Downloads
Min Dai, Zhaoli Jiang and Neng Wang
30149: Four Facts about Human Capital Downloads
David Deming
30148: Take-up of Social Benefits Downloads
Wonsik Ko and Robert Moffitt
30147: The Returns to Face-to-Face Interactions: Knowledge Spillovers in Silicon Valley Downloads
David Atkin, M. Keith Chen and Anton Popov
30146: Estimating Discrete Games with Many Firms and Many Decisions: An Application to Merger and Product Variety Downloads
Ying Fan and Chenyu Yang
30145: Intangible Marketing Capital Downloads
Bart Bronnenberg, Jean-Pierre H. Dubé and Chad Syverson
30144: Bottlenecks for Evidence Adoption Downloads
Stefano DellaVigna, Woojin Kim and Elizabeth Linos
30143: Growing Apart: Declining Within- and Across-Locality Insurance in Rural China Downloads
Orazio Attanasio, Costas Meghir, Corina Mommaerts and Yu Zheng
30142: Policy Diffusion and Polarization across U.S. States Downloads
Stefano DellaVigna and Woojin Kim
30141: Health Care Centralization: The Health Impacts of Obstetric Unit Closures in the US Downloads
Stefanie Fischer, Heather Royer and Corey White
30140: An Equilibrium Model of the Impact of Increased Public Investment in Early Childhood Education Downloads
Jonathan Borowsky, Jessica H. Brown, Elizabeth Davis, Chloe Gibbs, Chris M. Herbst, Aaron Sojourner, Erdal Tekin and Matthew Wiswall
30139: Vaccination Policy, Delayed Care, and Health Expenditures Downloads
Erkmen Aslim, Wei Fu, Chia-Lun Liu and Erdal Tekin
30138: Targeting Impact versus Deprivation Downloads
Johannes Haushofer, Paul Niehaus, Carlos Paramo, Edward Miguel and Michael Walker
30137: Adapting to Flood Risk: Evidence from a Panel of Global Cities Downloads
Sahil Gandhi, Matthew Kahn, Rajat Kochhar, Somik Lall and Vaidehi Tandel
30136: Measuring Human Capital Downloads
Katharine Abraham and Justine Mallatt
30135: Historical Newspaper Data: A Researcher’s Guide and Toolkit Downloads
Brian Beach and W Hanlon
30134: Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics Downloads
Mark Gertler, Christopher K. Huckfeldt and Antonella Trigari
30133: Cognitive Endurance as Human Capital Downloads
Christina Brown, Supreet Kaur, Geeta Kingdon and Heather Schofield
30132: A Monetary Policy Asset Pricing Model Downloads
Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek
30131: Financing Infrastructure in the Shadow of Expropriation Downloads
Viral Acharya, Cecilia Parlatore and Suresh Sundaresan
30130: Discrete-Choice Models and Representative Consumer Theory Downloads
Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, Joonhwi Joo and Kyeongbae Kim
30129: The Distributional Impacts of a VMT-Gas Tax Swap Downloads
Gilbert Metcalf
30128: Risk Pooling and Precautionary Saving in Village Economies Downloads
Marcel Fafchamps and Aditya Shrinivas
30127: Structural Change Within versus Across Firms: Evidence from the United States Downloads
Xiang Ding, Teresa Fort, Stephen Redding and Peter Schott
30126: Accelerating Vaccine Innovation for Emerging Infectious Diseases via Parallel Discovery Downloads
Joseph Barberio, Jacob Becraft, Zied Ben Chaouch, Dimitris Bertsimas, Tasuku Kitada, Michael Lingzhi Li, Andrew Lo, Kevin Shi and Qingyang Xu
30125: The Impact of Minority Representation at Mortgage Lenders Downloads
W Frame, Ruidi Huang, Erik J. Mayer and Adi Sunderam
30124: Nutrient Pollution and U.S. Agriculture: Causal Effects, Integrated Assessment, and Implications of Climate Change Downloads
Konstantinos Metaxoglou and Aaron Smith
30123: A National Estimate of Irrigation Canal Lining and Piping Water Conservation Downloads
R. Aaron Hrozencik, Nicholas A. Potter and Steven Wallander
30122: Cover Crops, Drought, Yield and Risk: an Analysis of U.S. Soybean Production Downloads
Fengxia Dong
30121: Weather, Climate, and Technology Adoption: An Application to Drought-Tolerant Corn in the United States Downloads
Jonathan R. McFadden, David J. Smith and Steven Wallander
30120: (Co-)Working in Close Proximity: Knowledge Spillovers and Social Interactions Downloads
Maria P. Roche, Alexander Oettl and Christian Catalini
30119: Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting Downloads
Osea Giuntella, Lorenzo Rotunno and Luca Stella
30118: How Undervalued is the Covid-19 Vaccine? Evidence from Discrete Choice Experiments and VSL Benchmarks Downloads
Patrick Carlin, Brian E. Dixon, Kosali Simon, Ryan Sullivan and Coady Wing
30117: Escaping Secular Stagnation with Unconventional Monetary Policy Downloads
Luba Petersen and Ryan Rholes
30116: Comparing Past and Present Inflation Downloads
Marijn Bolhuis, Judd N. L. Cramer and Lawrence Summers
30115: Factors Influencing the Choice of Pension Distribution at Retirement Downloads
Robert L. Clark and Olivia Mitchell
30114: The Race Between Tax Enforcement and Tax Planning: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Chile Downloads
Sebastián Bustos, Dina Pomeranz, Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, José Vila-Belda and Gabriel Zucman
30113: Who Benefits from Meritocracy? Downloads
Diana Moreira and Santiago Perez
30112: Mothers as Insurance: Family Spillovers in WIC Downloads
Marianne Bitler, Janet Currie, Hilary Hoynes, Krista Ruffini, Lisa Schulkind and Barton Willage
30111: Near-Rational Equilibria in Heterogeneous-Agent Models: A Verification Method Downloads
Leonid Kogan and Indrajit Mitra
30110: Opioid Use and Employment Outcomes: Evidence from the U.S. Military Downloads
Abby E. Alpert, Steve Schwab and Benjamin Ukert
30109: Cutting Out the Middleman: The Structure of Chains of Intermediation Downloads
Matthew Grant and Meredith Startz
30108: Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions Downloads
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull and Michal Kolesár
30107: Gender and Underrepresented Minority Differences in Research Funding Downloads
Laura Cruz-Castro, Donna Ginther and Luis Sanz-Menendez
30106: Days of Work Over a Half Century: The Rise of the Four-day Week Downloads
Daniel Hamermesh and Jeff Biddle
30105: The Effects of Advanced Degrees on the Wage Rates, Hours, Earnings and Job Satisfaction of Women and Men Downloads
Joseph Altonji, John Humphries and Ling Zhong
30104: Non-Covid Excess Deaths, 2020-21: Collateral Damage of Policy Choices? Downloads
Casey Mulligan and Robert D. Arnott
30103: Maternal Mortality and Women’s Political Power Downloads
Sonia Bhalotra, Damian Clarke, Joseph Gomes and Atheendar Venkataramani
30102: Microgiving with Digital Platforms Downloads
Xiheng Jiang, Jianwei Xing, Jintao Xu and Eric Zou
30101: Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020 Downloads
Ellora Derenoncourt, Chi Hyun Kim, Moritz Kuhn and Moritz Schularick
30100: Gender Pay Gap across Cultures Downloads
Natasha Burns, Kristina Minnick, Jeffry Netter and Laura Starks
30099: Dividend Taxes, Firm Growth, and the Allocation of Capital Downloads
Adrien Matray
30098: Right-to-Work Laws, Unionization, and Wage Setting Downloads
Nicole Fortin, Thomas Lemieux and Neil Lloyd
30097: The Effects of Alcohol Excise Tax Increases by Drinking Level and by Income Level Downloads
Henry Saffer, Markus Gehrsitz and Michael Grossman
30096: Inflation Past, Present and Future: Fiscal Shocks, Fed Response, and Fiscal Limits Downloads
John Cochrane
30095: Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution Downloads
Joseph Altonji, Disa Hynsjo and Ivan Vidangos
30094: Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models Downloads
Gizem Kosar and Cormac O'Dea
30093: Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions Downloads
Daniel J. Cooley and Steven Smith
30092: Internal Disagreement and Disruptive Technologies Downloads
Joshua Gans
30091: A Theory of Visionary Disruption Downloads
Joshua Gans
30090: The Effects of Public Housing on Children: Evidence from Colombia Downloads
Adriana Camacho, Valentina Duque, Michael Gilraine and Fabio Sanchez Torres
30089: The Rest of the World’s Dollar-Weighted Return on U.S. Treasurys Downloads
Zhengyang Jiang, Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig
30088: Grads on the Go: Measuring College-Specific Labor Markets for Graduates Downloads
Johnathan G. Conzelmann, Steven W. Hemelt, Brad Hershbein, Shawn M. Martin, Andrew Simon and Kevin Stange
30087: Who Holds Sovereign Debt and Why It Matters Downloads
Xiang Fang, Bryan Hardy and Karen Lewis
30086: Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Reduce Profit Shifting by US Multinational Companies? Downloads
Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Petr Janský and Gabriel Zucman
30085: New Schools and New Classmates: The Disruption and Peer Group Effects of School Reassignment Downloads
Darryl V. Hill, Rodney P. Hughes, Matthew A. Lenard, David D. Liebowitz and Lindsay C. Page
30084: Causal Inference During a Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina Downloads
Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle
30083: Robbing Peter to Pay Paul? The Redistribution of Wealth Caused by Rent Control Downloads
Kenneth Ahern and Marco Giacoletti
30082: Decarbonization and Electrification in the Long Run Downloads
Stephen Holland, Erin Mansur and Andrew Yates
30081: Creating American Farmland: Governance Institutions and Investment in Agricultural Drainage Downloads
Eric Edwards and Walter N. Thurman
30080: Producer Beliefs and Conservation: The Impact of Perceived Water Scarcity on Irrigation Technology Adoption Downloads
Joey Blumberg, Christopher Goemans and Dale Manning
30079: The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics? Downloads
Alberto Alesina and Marco Tabellini
30078: The “College Gap” in Marriage and Children’s Family Structure Downloads
Melissa Kearney
30077: Creative Destruction? Impact of E-Commerce on the Retail Sector Downloads
Sudheer Chava, Alexander Oettl, Manpreet Singh and Linghang Zeng
30076: A Penny for Your Thoughts Downloads
W Hanlon, Stephan Heblich, Ferdinando Monte and Martin Schmitz
30075: Boundary Discontinuity Methods and Policy Spillovers Downloads
Ekaterina S. Jardim, Mark Long, Robert Plotnick, Emma van Inwegen, Jacob Vigdor and Hilary Wething
30074: The Labor Market Impacts of Technological Change: From Unbridled Enthusiasm to Qualified Optimism to Vast Uncertainty Downloads
David Autor
30073: The Endowment Effect and Collateralized Loans Downloads
Kevin Carney, Michael Kremer, Xinyue Lin and Gautam Rao
30072: A Structural Approach to High-Frequency Event Studies: The Fed and Markets as Case History Downloads
Francesco Bianchi, Sydney Ludvigson and Sai Ma
30071: Idiosyncrasy as a Leading Indicator Downloads
Randall Morck, Bernard Yeung and Lu Y. Zhang
30070: The Crime Effect of Refugees Downloads
Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, Naci Mocan, Semih Tumen and Belgi Turan
30069: Agricultural Crises and Government Responses Between the World Wars in the Atlantic Trading Network Downloads
Price Fishback
30068: Urban Sprawl and Social Capital: Evidence from Indonesian Cities Downloads
Andrea Civelli, Arya Gaduh, Alexander Rothenberg and Yao Wang
30067: Safety Nets and Social Welfare Expenditures in World Economic History Downloads
Price Fishback
30066: Markets, Governments, and the Institutional Structure of Social Welfare Expenditures in the United States and Sweden in the 20th Century Downloads
Price Fishback
30065: Bayesian Persuasion with Lie Detection Downloads
Florian Ederer and Weicheng Min
30064: Reserve System Design for Allocation of Scarce Medical Resources in a Pandemic: Some Perspectives from the Field Downloads
Parag Pathak, Govind Persad, Tayfun Sönmez and Utku Unver
30063: Safeguarding Consumers Through Minimum Quality Standards: Milk Inspections and Urban Mortality, 1880-1910 Downloads
D. Mark Anderson, Kerwin Kofi Charles, Michael McKelligott and Daniel Rees
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