NBER Working Papers

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26611: Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal and Ryan Monarch

26610: Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective

Mary Amiti, Stephen Redding and David Weinstein

26609: The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

Tarek Alexander Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Laurence van Lent and Ahmed Tahoun

26608: Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

Mark L. Egan, Alexander MacKay and Hanbin Yang

26607: Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: A Different Approach

Nicolae B. Gârleanu and Stavros Panageas

26606: Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions

Christiane Baumeister and James D. Hamilton

26605: Alternative Work Arrangements

Alexandre Mas and Amanda Pallais

26604: Who Bears the Welfare Costs of Monopoly? The Case of the Credit Card Industry

Kyle F. Herkenhoff and Gajendran Raveendranathan

26603: Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives

Cailin R. Slattery and Owen Zidar

26602: Monetary Policy in an Era of Global Supply Chains

Shang-Jin Wei and Yinxi Xie

26601: Consumer Protection in an Online World: An Analysis of Occupational Licensing

Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin, Bradley Larsen and Erik Brynjolfsson

26600: General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence from Kenya

Dennis Egger, Johannes Haushofer, Edward Miguel, Paul Niehaus and Michael Walker

26599: Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates

Riako Granzier, Vincent Pons and Clemence Tricaud

26598: The Private and External Costs of Germany's Nuclear Phase-Out

Stephen Jarvis, Olivier Deschenes and Akshaya Jha

26597: Demand for Older Workers: What Do Economists Think? What Are Firms Doing?

Steven Allen

26596: Econometrics For Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched By Haavelmo And Wald

Charles Manski

26595: Motivated Errors

Christine L. Exley and Judd B. Kessler

26594: Railroads, Reallocation, and the Rise of American Manufacturing

Richard Hornbeck and Martin Rotemberg

26593: An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics

Ulrich K. Müller, James H. Stock and Mark Watson

26592: Voluntary Disclosure and Personalized Pricing

S. Nageeb Ali, Gregory Lewis and Shoshana Vasserman

26591: Urban Growth and its Aggregate Implications

Gilles Duranton and Diego Puga

26590: A Market for Work Permits

Michael Lokshin and Martin Ravallion

26589: E-Cigarettes and Adult Smoking: Evidence from Minnesota

Henry Saffer, Daniel Dench, Michael Grossman and Dhaval Dave

26588: Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution: The Importance of Capital Gains

Andreas Fagereng, Martin Holm, Benjamin Moll and Gisle Natvik

26587: The (Non-) Effect of Opportunity Zones on Housing Prices

Jiafeng Chen, Edward Glaeser and David Wessel

26586: Market Efficiency in the Age of Big Data

Ian Martin and Stefan Nagel

26585: Relocating or Redefined: A New Perspective on Urbanization in China

Li Gan, Qing He, Ruichao Si and Daichun Yi

26584: Machine Labor

Joshua Angrist and Brigham Frandsen

26583: The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle

Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Xiaolan

26582: Impact Investing

Brad Barber, Adair Morse and Ayako Yasuda

26581: The Impact of Intranational Trade Barriers on Exports: Evidence from a Nationwide VAT Rebate Reform in China

Jie Bai and Jiahua Liu

26580: Asset Prices and Unemployment Fluctuations

Patrick Kehoe, Pierlauro Lopez, Virgiliu Midrigan and Elena Pastorino

26579: Industry Structure, Segmentation, and Competition in the U.S. Hotel Industry

R. Andrew Butters and Thomas N. Hubbard

26578: Expanded GDP for Welfare Measurement in the 21st Century

Charles R. Hulten and Leonard Nakamura

26577: Network Data

Bryan Graham

26576: FinTech Platforms and Mutual Fund Distribution

Claire Yurong Hong, Xiaomeng Lu and Jun Pan

26575: The SOE Premium and Government Support in China's Credit Market

Zhe Geng and Jun Pan

26574: Are Poor Cities Cheap for Everyone? Non-Homotheticity and the Cost of Living Across U.S. Cities

Jessie Handbury

26573: The Local Residential Land Use Regulatory Environment Across U.S. Housing Markets: Evidence from a New Wharton Index

Joseph Gyourko, Jonathan Hartley and Jacob Krimmel

26572: How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons

26571: Who Pays for and Who Benefits from Minimum Wage Increases? Evidence from Israeli Tax Data on Business Owners and Workers

Lev Drucker, Katya Mazirov and David Neumark

26570: Non-Linear Effects of Tax Changes on Output: The Role of the Initial Level of Taxation

Samara Gunter, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin

26569: Forecasting with a Panel Tobit Model

Laura Liu, Hyungsik Moon and Frank Schorfheide

26568: Revealed Preference Analysis of School Choice Models

Nikhil Agarwal and Paulo J. Somaini

26567: Social Media and Xenophobia: Evidence from Russia

Leonardo Bursztyn, Georgy Egorov, Ruben Enikolopov and Maria Petrova

26566: Using Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks for the Design of Monte Carlo Simulations

Susan Athey, Guido Imbens, Jonas Metzger and Evan M. Munro

26565: Skewed Business Cycles

Sergio Salgado, Fatih Guvenen and Nicholas Bloom

26564: Government Guarantees and Bank Vulnerability during a Crisis: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Viral Acharya and Nirupama Kulkarni

26563: Local Exposure to School Shootings and Youth Antidepressant Use

Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell, Hannes Schwandt, Sam Trejo and Lindsey Uniat

26562: Factorial Designs, Model Selection, and (Incorrect) Inference in Randomized Experiments

Karthik Muralidharan, Mauricio Romero and Kaspar Wüthrich

26561: Financial Risk Capacity

Saki Bigio and Adrien d'Avernas

26560: The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r*

Josh Davis, Cristian Fuenzalida and Alan Taylor

26559: Do Appeals to Donor Benefits Raise More Money than Appeals to Recipient Benefits? Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment with Pick.Click.Give

John List, James Murphy, Michael Price and Alexander James

26558: Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature

Alessandro Rebucci and Chang Ma

26557: The Importance of Beliefs in Shaping Macroeconomic Outcomes

Roger Farmer

26556: Equilibrium Grade Inflation with Implications for Female Interest in STEM Majors

Tom Ahn, Peter Arcidiacono, Amy Hopson and James R. Thomas

26555: Your Place in the World: Relative Income and Global Inequality

Dietmar Fehr, Johanna Mollerstrom and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

26554: Why are Average Hours Worked Lower in Richer Countries?

Alexander Bick, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, David Lagakos and Hitoshi Tsujiyama

26553: Medicaid Expansion and the Unemployed

Thomas Buchmueller, Helen Levy and Robert Valletta

26552: Older Workers Need Not Apply? Ageist Language in Job Ads and Age Discrimination in Hiring

Ian Burn, Patrick Button, Luis Felipe Munguia Corella and David Neumark

26551: Abandoned by Coal, Swallowed by Opioids?

Gilbert Metcalf and Qitong Wang

26550: Moral Hazard, Wildfires, and the Economic Incidence of Natural Disasters

Patrick Baylis and Judson Boomhower

26549: Sustainable Investing in Equilibrium

Lubos Pastor, Robert F. Stambaugh and Lucian A. Taylor

26548: Coordinated Work Schedules and the Gender Wage Gap

German Cubas, Chinhui Juhn and Pedro Silos

26547: Firm and Worker Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market

Adrien G. Bilal, Niklas Engbom, Simon Mongey and Giovanni Violante

26546: Balance Sheet Insolvency and Contribution Revenue in Public Charities

Tatiana Homonoff, Thomas L. Spreen and Travis St.Clair

26545: Endogenous Corporate Leverage Response to a Safer Macro Environment: The Case of Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation

Hui Tong and Shang-Jin Wei

26544: Wealth Taxation in the United States

Edward N. Wolff

26543: Index Funds and the Future of Corporate Governance: Theory, Evidence, and Policy

Lucian Bebchuk and Scott Hirst

26542: Services Development and Comparative Advantage in Manufacturing

Xuepeng Liu, Aaditya Mattoo, Zhi Wang and Shang-Jin Wei

26541: From Fog to Smog: the Value of Pollution Information

Panle Barwick, Shanjun Li, Liguo Lin and Eric Zou

26540: Going Green in China: Firms’ Responses to Stricter Environmental Regulations

Haichao Fan, Joshua Graff Zivin, Zonglai Kou, Xueyue Liu and Huanhuan Wang

26539: Conceptual Aspects of Global Value Chains

Pol Antras

26538: Q-factors and Investment CAPM

Lu Zhang

26537: China's Unconventional Nationwide CO₂ Emissions Trading System: The Wide-Ranging Impacts of an Implicit Output Subsidy

Lawrence H. Goulder, Xianling Long, Jieyi Lu and Richard Morgenstern

26536: The Effects of Immigration on the Economy: Lessons from the 1920s Border Closure

Ran Abramitzky, Philipp Ager, Leah Boustan, Elior Cohen and Casper W. Hansen

26535: Rethinking Production Under Uncertainty

John Cochrane

26534: More (or Less) Economic Limits of the Blockchain

Joshua Gans and Neil Gandal

26533: Health Insurance and Mortality: Experimental Evidence from Taxpayer Outreach

Jacob Goldin, Ithai Z. Lurie and Janet McCubbin

26532: Evaluating the Success of President Johnson’s War on Poverty: Revisiting the Historical Record Using an Absolute Full-Income Poverty Measure

Richard Burkhauser, Kevin Corinth, James Elwell and Jeff Larrimore

26531: Using Machine Learning to Target Treatment: The Case of Household Energy Use

Christopher Knittel and Samuel Stolper

26530: The Old Boys' Club: Schmoozing and the Gender Gap

Zoë B. Cullen and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

26529: Measuring and Using Happiness to Support Public Policies

John F. Helliwell

26528: Does Household Electrification Supercharge Economic Development?

Kenneth Lee, Edward Miguel and Catherine Wolfram

26527: Income and Wealth Volatility: Evidence from Italy and the U.S. in the Past Two Decades

Conchita D'Ambrosio, Giorgia Menta and Edward N. Wolff

26526: The Shrinking Advantage of Market Potential

Marius Brülhart, Klaus Desmet and Gian-Paolo Klinke

26525: The Firm's Role in Displaced Workers' Earnings Losses

Brendan Moore and Judith Scott-Clayton

26524: The Geography of Prescription Pharmaceuticals Supplied to the U.S.: Levels, Trends and Implications

Neriman Beste Kaygisiz, Yashna Shivdasani, Rena Conti and Ernst R. Berndt

26523: Does a One-Size-Fits-All Minimum Wage Cause Financial Stress for Small Businesses?

Sudheer Chava, Alexander Oettl and Manpreet Singh

26522: Estimating Biases in Smoking Cessation: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Frank Chaloupka, Matthew R. Levy and Justin S. White

26521: Hidden in Plain Sight: Venture Growth with or without Venture Capital

Christian Catalini, Jorge Guzman and Scott Stern

26520: Pledgeability and Asset Prices: Evidence from the Chinese Corporate Bond Markets

Hui Chen, Zhuo Chen, Zhiguo He, Jinyu Liu and Rengming Xie

26519: Labor in the Boardroom

Simon Jäger, Benjamin Schoefer and Jörg Heining

26518: Cognitive Uncertainty

Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber

26517: Text Selection

Bryan T. Kelly, Asaf Manela and Alan Moreira

26516: Subjective Parental Beliefs: Their Measurement and Role

Orazio Attanasio, Flavio Cunha and Pamela Jervis

26515: Moved to Vote: The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhoods on Political Participation

Eric Chyn and Kareem Haggag

26514: Valuing Private Equity Strip by Strip

Arpit Gupta and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

26513: Disability Insurance: Error Rates and Gender Differences

Hamish Low and Luigi Pistaferri

26512: The Surprising Hybrid Pedigree of Measures of Diversity and Economic Concentration

Paolo M. Adajar, Ernst R. Berndt and Rena Conti