NBER Working Papers

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27180: The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates

Jisang Yu, Nelson Villoria and Nathan Hendricks

27179: Savings and Saving Rates: Up or Down?

Guillermo Ordonez and Facundo Piguillem

27178: Deliberate Surrender? The Impact of Interwar Indian Protection

Vellore Arthi, Markus Lampe, Ashwin R Nair and Kevin O'Rourke

27177: The Economic Impact of Access to Public Four-Year Colleges

Jonathan Smith, Joshua Goodman and Michael Hurwitz

27176: Estimating Probabilities of Success of Vaccine and Other Anti-Infective Therapeutic Development Programs

Andrew Lo, Kien Wei Siah and Chi Heem Wong

27175: Bayesian Adaptive Clinical Trials for Anti‐Infective Therapeutics during Epidemic Outbreaks

Shomesh Chaudhuri, Andrew Lo, Danying Xiao and Qingyang Xu

27174: The Influence of Early Life Health Conditions on Life Course Health

Manuel Flores and Barbara Wolfe

27173: Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Outpatient Providers in the US

Pinka Chatterji and Yue Li

27172: Optimal Contracting with Altruistic Agents: A Structural Model of Medicare Payments for Dialysis Drugs

Martin Gaynor, Nirav Mehta and Seth Richards-Shubik

27171: China's Model of Managing the Financial System

Markus Brunnermeier, Michael Sockin and Wei Xiong

27170: The Accumulation of Human and Market Capital in the United States: The Long View, 1948–2013

Barbara M. Fraumeni, Michael S. Christian and Jon D. Samuels

27169: The Contribution of Chinese Diaspora Researchers to Global Science and China's Catching Up in Scientific Research

Qingnan Xie and Richard Freeman

27168: When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response

Valentin Haddad, Alan Moreira and Tyler Muir

27167: Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty

Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Stephen Terry

27166: Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For

Jeffrey E. Harris

27165: The Economics of Time-Limited Development Options: The Case of Oil and Gas Leases

Evan M. Herrnstadt, Ryan Kellogg and Eric Lewis

27164: The Marginal Net Taxation of Americans’ Labor Supply

David Altig, Alan Auerbach, Laurence Kotlikoff, Elias Ilin and Victor Ye

27163: Robbing Peter to Pay Paul: Understanding How State Tax Credits Impact Charitable Giving

Chandrayee Chatterjee, James Cox, Michael Price and Florian Rundhammer

27162: College Achievement and Attainment Gaps: Evidence from West Point Cadets

Dario Cestau, Dennis Epple, Richard Romano, Holger Sieg and Carl Wojtaszek

27161: When Coercive Economies Fail: The Political Economy of the US South After the Boll Weevil

James Feigenbaum, Soumyajit Mazumder and Cory Smith

27160: Earnings Expectations in the COVID Crisis

Augustin Landier and David Thesmar

27159: The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession

Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Ryan Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz and Ahu Yildirmaz

27158: Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe

Viral Acharya, Matteo Crosignani, Tim Eisert and Christian Eufinger

27157: Poverty, Depression, and Anxiety: Causal Evidence and Mechanisms

Matthew Ridley, Gautam Rao, Frank Schilbach and Vikram H. Patel

27156: The Winners and Losers of Immigration: Evidence from Linked Historical Data

Joseph Price, Christian vom Lehn and Riley Wilson

27155: Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies

Nicholas C. Barberis, Lawrence Jin and Baolian Wang

27154: The Gender Gap in Tech & Competitive Work Environments? Field Experimental Evidence from an Internet-of-Things Product Development Platform

Kevin Boudreau and Nilam Kaushik

27153: Leader Value Added: Assessing the Growth Contribution of Individual National Leaders

William Easterly and Steven Pennings

27152: Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

27151: Machine Learning in Gravity Models: An Application to Agricultural Trade

Munisamy Gopinath, Feras A. Batarseh and Jayson Beckman

27150: How Resilient is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting

Sabrina T. Howell, Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda and Richard R. Townsend

27149: Systemic Credit Freezes in Financial Lending Networks

Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar, James Siderius and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

27148: Trade in Technology: A Potential Solution to the Food Security Challenges of the 21st Century

Thomas Hertel, Uris L.C. Baldos and Keith Fuglie

27147: The Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Trade

Colin Carter and Sandro Steinbach

27146: Kill Zone

Sai Krishna Kamepalli, Raghuram Rajan and Luigi Zingales

27145: Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the Energy Sector

David Popp, Jacquelyn Pless, Ivan Haščič and Nick Johnstone

27144: Measuring Real Consumption and CPI Bias under Lockdown Conditions

Walter Diewert and Kevin Fox

27143: Paying It Backward and Forward: Expanding Access to Convalescent Plasma Therapy Through Market Design

Scott Kominers, Parag Pathak, Tayfun Sönmez and Utku Unver

27142: The Use of Group-Level Approaches to Environmental and Natural Resource Policy

Matthew Kotchen and Kathleen Segerson

27141: The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber

27140: Entry vs. Rents: Aggregation with Economies of Scale

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

27139: The Darwinian Returns to Scale

David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi and Kunal Sangani

27138: Paid sick-leave and physical mobility: Evidence from the United States during a pandemic

Martin Andersen, Johanna Maclean, Michael Pesko and Kosali Simon

27137: COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock

Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis

27136: What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?

Richard Lyons and Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj

27135: Expected Health Effects of Reduced Air Pollution from COVID-19 Social Distancing

Steve Cicala, Stephen Holland, Erin Mansur, Nicholas Muller and Andrew Yates

27134: Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity

Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf and Farzad Saidi

27133: Trade and Welfare (Across Local Labor Markets)

Ryan Kim and Jonathan Vogel

27132: Determinants of Disparities in Covid-19 Job Losses

Laura Montenovo, Xuan Jiang, Felipe Lozano Rojas, Ian Schmutte, Kosali Simon, Bruce Weinberg and Coady Wing

27131: The First Weeks of the Coronavirus Crisis: Who Got Hit, When and Why? Evidence from Norway

Annette Alstadsæter, Bernt Bratsberg, Gaute Eielsen, Wojciech Kopczuk, Simen Markussen, Oddbjørn Raaum and Knut Røed

27130: Does Biology Drive Child Penalties? Evidence from Biological and Adoptive Families

Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais and Jakob Søgaard

27129: International Equity and Debt Flows: Composition, Crisis, and Controls

Chang Ma and Shang-Jin Wei

27128: Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Charles Jones

27127: Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S

Felipe Lozano Rojas, Xuan Jiang, Laura Montenovo, Kosali Simon, Bruce Weinberg and Coady Wing

27126: Does Information Disclosure Improve Consumer Knowledge? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Restaurant Menu Calorie Labels

John Cawley, Alex M. Susskind and Barton Willage

27125: The Effects of Need-Based Financial Aid on Employment and Earnings: Experimental Evidence from the Fund for Wisconsin Scholars

Deven E. Carlson, Alex Schmidt, Sarah Souders and Barbara Wolfe

27124: Covid-19, Shelter-In Place Strategies and Tipping

Zhihan Cui, Geoffrey Heal and Howard Kunreuther

27123: The Wealth of Generations, With Special Attention to the Millennials

William Gale, Hilary Gelfond, Jason J. Fichtner and Benjamin H. Harris

27122: The Macroeconomics of Automation: Data, Theory, and Policy Analysis

Nir Jaimovich, Itay Saporta-Eksten, Henry Siu and Yaniv Yedid-Levi

27121: COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion

Robert Pindyck

27120: The Value of Health Insurance during a Crisis: Effects of Medicaid Implementation on Pandemic Influenza Mortality

Karen Clay, Joshua Lewis, Edson Severnini and Xiao Wang

27119: A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics

Peter Lin and Christopher Meissner

27118: Transfers vs Credit Policy: Macroeconomic Policy Trade-offs during Covid-19

Saki Bigio, Mengbo Zhang and Eduardo Zilberman

27117: The Effect of Changes in Alcohol Tax Differentials on Alcohol Consumption

Markus Gehrsitz, Henry Saffer and Michael Grossman

27116: The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble

Markus Brunnermeier, Sebastian A. Merkel and Yuliy Sannikov

27115: Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections

George Hall and Thomas Sargent

27114: The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment

Mary Amiti, Sang Hoon Kong and David Weinstein

27113: The Macroprudential Role of Stock Markets

Kyriakos T. Chousakos, Gary Gorton and Guillermo Ordonez

27112: Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength

Francesco Bianchi, Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi

27111: An Economic Approach to Regulating Algorithms

Ashesh Rambachan, Jon Kleinberg, Sendhil Mullainathan and Jens Ludwig

27110: Social Security Wealth, Inequality, and Lifecycle Saving

John Sabelhaus and Alice Henriques Volz

27109: Taxation and Innovation: What Do We Know?

Ufuk Akcigit and Stefanie Stantcheva

27108: The Variance Risk Premium in Equilibrium Models

Geert Bekaert, Eric Engstrom and Andrey Ermolov

27107: Education and Innovation: The Long Shadow of the Cultural Revolution

Zhangkai Huang, Gordon Phillips, Jialun Yang and Yi Zhang

27106: How Valuable is Financial Flexibility when Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis

Ruediger Fahlenbrach, Kevin Rageth and René M. Stulz

27105: Pandemic Recession: L or V-Shaped?

Victoria Gregory, Guido Menzio and David Wiczer

27104: The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining

Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt

27103: Do Youth Employment Programs Work? Evidence from the New Deal

Anna Aizer, Shari Eli, Adriana Lleras-Muney and Keyoung Lee

27102: Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model

Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Werning and Michael Whinston

27101: Early Life Shocks, Market Adjustments, and Black-White Inequality

Karen Clay and Ethan J. Schmick

27100: Inequality of Fear and Self-Quarantine: Is There a Trade-off between GDP and Public Health?

Sangmin Aum, Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin

27099: Health vs. Wealth? Public Health Policies and the Economy During Covid-19

Peter Lin and Christopher Meissner

27098: Office Visits Preventing Emergency Room Visits: Evidence From the Flint Water Switch

Shooshan Danagoulian, Daniel S. Grossman and David Slusky

27097: Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments

Scott Baker, R. A. Farrokhnia, Steffen Meyer, Michaela Pagel and Constantine Yannelis

27096: Employer Policies and the Immigrant-Native Earnings Gap

Benoit Dostie, Jiang Li, David Card and Daniel Parent

27095: Did the Paycheck Protection Program Hit the Target?

João Granja, Christos Makridis, Constantine Yannelis and Eric Zwick

27094: A New Method for Estimating Teacher Value-Added

Michael Gilraine, Jiaying Gu and Robert McMillan

27093: Expected Profits and The Scientific Novelty of Innovation

David Dranove, Craig Garthwaite and Manuel Hermosilla

27092: Measuring the Perceived Liquidity of the Corporate Bond Market

Sergey Chernenko and Adi Sunderam

27091: When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight COVID-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States and Adoption Time

Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa and Joseph J. Sabia

27090: Dropouts Need Not Apply? The Minimum Wage and Skill Upgrading

Jeffrey Clemens, Lisa Kahn and Jonathan Meer

27089: Do Differences in School Quality Generate Heterogeneity in the Causal Returns to Education?

Philip DeCicca and Harry Krashinsky

27088: Dissecting Mechanisms of Financial Crises: Intermediation and Sentiment

Arvind Krishnamurthy and Wenhao Li

27087: Personalized Pricing and the Value of Time: Evidence from Auctioned Cab Rides

Nicholas Buchholz, Laura Doval, Jakub Kastl, Filip Matejka and Tobias Salz

27086: Ambiguous Pollution Response to COVID-19 in China

Douglas Almond, Xinming Du and Shuang Zhang

27085: Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing?

Simon Mongey, Laura Pilossoph and Alex Weinberg

27084: Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool

Fabio Ghironi and Galip Ozhan

27083: Steering Incentives of Platforms: Evidence from the Telecommunications Industry

Brian McManus, Aviv Nevo, Zachary Nolan and Jonathan W. Williams

27082: Global Behaviors and Perceptions at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Thiemo Fetzer, Marc Witte, Lukas Hensel, Jon Jachimowicz, Johannes Haushofer, Andriy Ivchenko, Stefano Caria, Elena Reutskaja, Christopher Roth, Stefano Fiorin, Margarita Gómez, Gordon Kraft-Todd, Friedrich M. Götz and Erez Yoeli

27081: Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach

Stephie Fried and David Lagakos