NBER Working Papers

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27482: Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession

Francis Diebold

27481: Credit Booms, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy

Mark Gertler, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and Andrea Prestipino

27480: How the Other Half Died: Immigration and Mortality in US Cities

Philipp Ager, James Feigenbaum, Casper Hansen and Hui Ren Tan

27479: Property Rights without Transfer Rights: A Study of Indian Land Allotment

Christian Dippel, Dustin Frye and Bryan Leonard

27478: Labor Market Screening and the Design of Social Insurance: An Equilibrium Analysis of the Labor Market for the Disabled

Naoki Aizawa, Soojin Kim and Serena Rhee

27477: The Microeconomics of Cryptocurrencies

Hanna Halaburda, Guillaume Haeringer, Joshua Gans and Neil Gandal

27476: The Impressive Effects of Tutoring on PreK-12 Learning: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Experimental Evidence

Andre Nickow, Philip Oreopoulos and Vincent Quan

27475: Competition and Quality: Evidence from High-Speed Railways and Airlines

Hanming Fang, Long Wang and Yang Yang

27474: Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy

Matteo Cacciatore and Fabio Ghironi

27473: Rationing the Commons

Nicholas Ryan and Anant Sudarshan

27472: Rational Sentiments and Economic Cycles

Maryam Farboodi and Péter Kondor

27471: The Hidden Costs of Strategic Opacity

Ana Babus and Maryam Farboodi

27470: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Which Firms Won? Which Lost?

Alexander Wagner, Richard Zeckhauser and Alexandre Ziegler

27469: Home Prices, Fertility, and Early-Life Health Outcomes

N. Meltem Daysal, Michael Lovenheim, Nikolaj Siersbæk and David Wasser

27468: Class Rank and Long-Run Outcomes

Jeffrey Denning, Richard Murphy and Felix Weinhardt

27467: Fixing Misallocation with Guidelines: Awareness vs. Adherence

Jason Abaluck, Leila Agha, David C. Chan, Daniel Singer and Diana Zhu

27466: Technology Diffusion

Nancy Stokey

27465: Understanding 100 Years of the Evolution of Top Wealth Shares in the U.S.: What is the Role of Family Firms?

Andrew Atkeson and Magnus Irie

27464: Optimal Monetary Policy in Production Networks

Jennifer La'O and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

27463: The Franchise, Policing, and Race: Evidence from Arrests Data and the Voting Rights Act

Giovanni Facchini, Brian Knight and Cecilia Testa

27462: The Impact of COVID-19 on Small Business Owners: The First Three Months after Social-Distancing Restrictions

Robert Fairlie

27461: The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis

Efraim Benmelech and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

27460: Trade Wars, Currency Wars

Stéphane Auray, Michael Devereux and Aurélien Eyquem

27459: Optimal Illiquidity

John Beshears, James Choi, Christopher Clayton, Christopher Harris, David Laibson and Brigitte Madrian

27458: Physician Characteristics and Patient Survival: Evidence from Physician Availability

Joseph J. Doyle

27457: Group Testing in a Pandemic: The Role of Frequent Testing, Correlated Risk, and Machine Learning

Ned Augenblick, Jonathan Kolstad, Ziad Obermeyer and Ao Wang

27456: Political Power, Elite Control, and Long-Run Development: Evidence from Brazil

Claudio Ferraz, Frederico Finan and Monica Martinez-Bravo

27455: Income-driven Labor Market Polarization

Diego Comin, Ana Danieli and Martí Mestieri

27454: The Performance of Hedge Fund Performance Fees

Itzhak Ben-David, Justin Birru and Andrea Rossi

27453: Towards a Dynamic Disequilibrium Theory with Randomness

Martin Guzman and Joseph Stiglitz

27452: Personal Wealth and Self-Employment

Aymeric Bellon, J. Anthony Cookson, Erik P. Gilje and Rawley Heimer

27451: Pandemic Shocks and Fiscal-Monetary Policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 Dominance During January - June 2020

Yothin Jinjarak, Rashad Ahmed, Sameer Nair-Desai, Weining Xin and Joshua Aizenman

27450: Why Retirement, Social Security, and Age Discrimination Policies Need to Consider the Intersectional Experiences of Older Women

Ian Burn, Patrick Button, Theodore Figinski and Joanne McLaughlin

27449: Social Norms as a Barrier to Women's Employment in Developing Countries

Seema Jayachandran

27448: Early Evidence on the Impact of COVID-19 and the Recession on Older Workers

Truc Bui, Patrick Button and Elyce G. Picciotti

27447: Reviving the Salter-Swan Small Open Economy Model

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe

27446: Measuring Infrastructure in BEA's National Economic Accounts

Jennifer Bennett, Robert Kornfeld, Daniel Sichel and David Wasshausen

27445: Pollution and Labor Market Search Externalities Over the Business Cycle

John Gibson and Garth Heutel

27444: Long-Run Effects of Incentivizing Work After Childbirth

Elira Kuka and Na'ama Shenhav

27443: Is Attention Produced Optimally? Theory and Evidence from Experiments with Bandwidth Enhancements

Erin Bronchetti, Judd B. Kessler, Ellen Magenheim, Dmitry Taubinsky and Eric Zwick

27442: Do Bank Insiders Impede Equity Issuances?

Martin Goetz, Luc Laeven and Ross Levine

27441: Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network

Pablo Fajgelbaum, Amit Khandelwal, Wookun Kim, Cristiano Mantovani and Edouard Schaal

27440: Endogenous Quality Investments in the U.S. Hospital Market

Craig Garthwaite, Christopher Ody and Amanda Starc

27439: Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19

Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran

27438: Portfolio Delegation and 401(k) Plan Participant Responses to COVID-19

David Blanchett, Michael Finke and Jonathan Reuter

27437: Parallel Inverse Aggregate Demand Curves in Discrete Choice Models

Kory Kroft, René Leal Vizcaíno, Matthew Notowidigdo and Ting Wang

27436: ‘Mechanization Takes Command’: Inanimate Power and Labor Productivity in Late Nineteenth Century American Manufacturing

Jeremy Atack, Robert Margo and Paul Rhode

27435: Barbarians at the Store? Private Equity, Products, and Consumers

Cesare Fracassi, Alessandro Previtero and Albert W. Sheen

27434: The Macroeconomics of Sticky Prices with Generalized Hazard Functions

Fernando E. Alvarez, Francesco Lippi and Aleksei Oskolkov

27433: Do Interactions with Candidates Increase Voter Support and Participation? Experimental Evidence from Italy

Enrico Cantoni and Vincent Pons

27432: Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020

Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson

27431: The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data

Raj Chetty, John Friedman, Michael Stepner and The Opportunity Insights Team

27430: Epidemics in the New Keynesian Model

Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt

27429: Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution

Pierre Bachas, Lucie Gadenne and Anders Jensen

27428: Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment

Paolo Martellini, Guido Menzio and Ludo Visschers

27427: COVID-19 and the Demand for Online Food Shopping Services: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

Hung-Hao Chang and Chad Meyerhoefer

27426: Implications of the Covid-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues

Jeffrey Clemens and Stan Veuger

27425: Transatlantic Technologies: The Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. and European Productivity Growth

Robert Gordon and Hassan Sayed

27424: Local Polynomial Order in Regression Discontinuity Designs

Zhuan Pei, David S. Lee, David Card and Andrea Weber

27423: The Changing Risk and Burden of Wildfire in the US

Marshall Burke, Anne Driscoll, Jenny Xue, Sam Heft-Neal, Jennifer Burney and Michael Wara

27422: What Jobs are Being Done at Home During the Covid-19 Crisis? Evidence from Firm-Level Surveys

Alexander Bartik, Zoe B. Cullen, Edward Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher T. Stanton

27421: Tech Clusters

William Kerr and Frederic Robert-Nicoud

27420: A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate

Mario Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani and Takayuki Tsuruga

27419: Back to Business and (Re)employing Workers? Labor Market Activity During State COVID-19 Reopenings

Wei Cheng, Patrick Carlin, Joanna Carroll, Sumedha Gupta, Felipe Lozano Rojas, Laura Montenovo, Thuy D. Nguyen, Ian Schmutte, Olga Scrivner, Kosali Simon, Coady Wing and Bruce Weinberg

27418: Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

David Altig, Scott Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nicholas B. Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka and Gregory Thwaites

27417: Misinformation During a Pandemic

Leonardo Bursztyn, Aakaash Rao, Christopher Roth and David Yanagizawa-Drott

27416: Treasury Inconvenience Yields during the COVID-19 Crisis

Zhiguo He, Stefan Nagel and Zhaogang Song

27415: Conservation Co-Benefits from Air Pollution Regulation: Evidence from Birds

Yuanning Liang, Ivan J. Rudik, Eric Zou, Alison Johnston, Amanda D. Rodewald and Catherine Kling

27414: Food, Fuel and the Domesday Economy

Juan Moreno-Cruz and M. Scott Taylor

27413: Nondogmatic Climate Policy

Niko Jaakkola and Antony Millner

27412: Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices

Nicolas Bottan and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

27411: Financial Vulnerability and Risks to Growth in Emerging Markets

Viral Acharya, Soumya Bhadury and Jay Surti

27410: Biases in Long-Horizon Predictive Regressions

Jacob Boudoukh, Ronen Israel and Matthew P. Richardson

27409: Salience and Taxation with Imperfect Competition

Kory Kroft, Jean-William Laliberté, René Leal-Vizcaíno and Matthew Notowidigdo

27408: Black Lives Matter Protests and Risk Avoidance: The Case of Civil Unrest During a Pandemic

Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, Joseph J. Sabia and Samuel Safford

27407: Racial Disparity in COVID-19 Deaths: Seeking Economic Roots with Census data

John McLaren

27406: Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Francesco Bianchi, Sydney Ludvigson and Sai Ma

27405: The Effect of Price on Firm Reputation

Michael Luca and Oren Reshef

27404: From Imitation to Innovation: Where Is all that Chinese R&D Going?

Michael König, Zheng Michael Song, Kjetil Storesletten and Fabrizio Zilibotti

27403: The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Philippe Martin and Todd E. Messer

27402: Which Investors Matter for Equity Valuations and Expected Returns?

Ralph Koijen, Robert Richmond and Motohiro Yogo

27401: The Political Scar of Epidemics

Barry Eichengreen, Orkun Saka and Cevat Giray Aksoy

27400: Economic Crisis, General Laws, and the Mid-Nineteenth-Century Transformation of American Political Economy

Naomi R. Lamoreaux and John Joseph Wallis

27399: Managing Households' Expectations with Unconventional Policies

Francesco D’Acunto, Daniel Hoang and Michael Weber

27398: The Growth of Nations Revisited: Global Environmental Accounting from 1998 to 2018

Aniruddh Mohan, Nicholas Muller, Akshay Thyagarajan, Randall V. Martin, Melanie S. Hammer and Aaron van Donkelaar

27397: What Accounts for the Rising Share of Women in the Top 1%?

Richard Burkhauser, Nicolas Hérault, Stephen Jenkins and Roger Wilkins

27396: Predictable Financial Crises

Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

27395: Aggregate Effects from Public Works: Evidence from India

Justin Cook and Manisha Shah

27394: Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment

Hie Joo Ahn and James Hamilton

27393: Social Distancing and Social Capital: Why U.S. Counties Respond Differently to COVID-19

Wenzhi Ding, Ross Levine, Chen Lin and Wensi Xie

27392: The Impact of COVID-19 on Student Experiences and Expectations: Evidence from a Survey

Esteban Aucejo, Jacob F. French, Maria Paola Ugalde Araya and Basit Zafar

27391: What Does and Does Not Correlate with COVID-19 Death Rates

Christopher Knittel and Bora Ozaltun

27390: Within-Job Wage Inequality: Performance Pay and Job Relatedness

Rongsheng Tang, Yang Tang and Ping Wang

27389: Dynamics of Markups, Concentration and Product Span

Elhanan Helpman and Benjamin C. Niswonger

27388: Principal Portfolios

Bryan T. Kelly, Semyon Malamud and Lasse Pedersen

27387: Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations

Niels Gormsen and Ralph Koijen

27386: Gains from wage Flexibility and the Zero Lower Bound

Roberto Billi and Jordi Galí

27385: Insider-Outsider Labor Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy

Jordi Galí

27384: Does Policy Communication During Covid Work?

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber

27383: China’s Import Demand for Agricultural Products: The Impact of the Phase One Trade Agreement

Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong