NBER Working Papers

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32462: Global Indeterminacy in HANK Economies

Sushant Acharya and Jess Benhabib

32461: Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data

Thomas Drechsel

32460: A Flexible Model of Food Security: Estimation and Implications for Prediction

Will Davis, Jose O. Xilau, Rusty Tchernis and Christian Gregory

32459: Voluntary Emission Restraints in Developing Economies: The Role of Trade Policy

Lorenzo Caliendo, Marcelo Dolabella, Mauricio Moreira, Matthew Murillo and Fernando Parro

32458: Designing Dynamic Reassignment Mechanisms: Evidence from GP Allocation

Ingrid Huitfeldt, Victoria Marone and Daniel C. Waldinger

32457: Impact of Retail CBDC on Digital Payments, and Bank Deposits: Evidence from India

Marco Di Maggio, Pulak Ghosh, Soumya Kanti Ghosh and Andrew Wu

32456: A Sharp Test for the Judge Leniency Design

Mohamed Coulibaly, Yu-Chin Hsu, Ismael Mourifié and Yuanyuan Wan

32455: Can Gun Violence be Deterred at Low Cost? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in New York City

Oludamilare Aboaba, Aaron Chalfin, Michael LaForest Tucker, Lucie Parker and Patrick Sharkey

32454: Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View

Zhengyang Jiang

32453: Dollar Asset Holdings and Hedging Around the Globe

Wenxin Du and Amy W. Huber

32452: Demand-side and Supply-side Constraints in the Market for Financial Advice

Jonathan Reuter and Antoinette Schoar

32451: Trade Wars and the Optimal Design of Monetary Rules

Stéphane Auray, Michael Devereux and Aurélien Eyquem

32450: The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature

Adrien Bilal and Diego Känzig

32449: Monetary Transmission Through Bank Securities Portfolios

Daniel Greenwald, John Krainer and Pascal Paul

32448: Melitz Meets Lewis: The Impacts of Roads on Structural Transformation and Businesses

Joseph Kaboski, Jianyu Lu, Wei Qian and Lixia Ren

32447: Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Inattention

David Berger, Konstantin Milbradt, Fabrice Tourre and Joseph Vavra

32446: Career Expectations and Outcomes: Evidence (on Gender Gaps) from the Economics Job Market

Brooke Helppie McFall, Eric D. Parolin and Basit Zafar

32445: The Economics of Infertility: Evidence from Reproductive Medicine

Sarah Bögl, Jasmin Moshfegh, Petra Persson and Maria Polyakova

32444: Do E-Cigarette Retail Licensure Laws Reduce Tobacco Use?

Charles Courtemanche, Yang Liang, Johanna Maclean, Caterina Muratori and Joseph J. Sabia

32443: Employer 401(k) Matches for Student Debt Repayment: Killing Two Birds with One Stone?

Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer and Olivia Mitchell

32442: Half Empty and Half Full? Women in Economics and the Rise in Gender-Related Research

Francisca Antman, Kirk Doran, Xuechao Qian and Bruce Weinberg

32441: The Disenrollment and Labor Supply Effects of SNAP Work Requirements

Jason Cook and Chloe East

32440: Losing to Gain: Revenue Shortfalls and Fiscal Capacity in Brazil

Claudio Ferraz, Dirk Foremny and Juan Francisco Santini

32439: Pricing Innovation in Surgical Care Markets

Alice Chen, Seth Freedman, Elizabeth Munnich and Michael R. Richards

32438: To Find Relative Earnings Gains After the China Shock, Look Outside Manufacturing and Upstream

Justin Pierce, Peter Schott and Cristina Tello-Trillo

32437: Demographic Diversity and Economic Research: Fields of Specialization and Research on Race, Ethnicity, and Inequality

Francisca Antman, Kirk Doran, Xuechao Qian and Bruce Weinberg

32436: What do Financial Markets say about the Exchange Rate?

Mikhail Chernov, Valentin Haddad and Oleg Itskhoki

32435: Demand For E-Cigarettes Based On Nicotine Strength: Evidence From Retail Sales

Megan C. Diaz, Adrian Bertrand, Tatum McKay, Barbara A. Schillo, Bushraa S. Khatib and John Tauras

32434: Causal Effects in Matching Mechanisms with Strategically Reported Preferences

Marinho Bertanha, Margaux Luflade and Ismael Mourifié

32433: The Moral Values of "Rugged Individualism"

Samuel Bazzi, Martin Fiszbein and Maximiliano Garcia

32432: Predicting Police Misconduct

Greg Stoddard, Dylan J. Fitzpatrick and Jens Ludwig

32431: The Dynamic Effects of Cash Transfers to Agricultural Households

Shilpa Aggarwal, Jenny C. Aker, Dahyeon Jeong, Naresh Kumar, David Sungho Park, Jonathan Robinson and Alan Spearot

32430: Artificial Intelligence and the Skill Premium

David Bloom, Klaus Prettner, Jamel Saadaoui and Mario Veruete

32429: Integrating Minorities in the Classroom: The Role of Students, Parents, and Teachers

Alexandra de Gendre, Krzysztof Karbownik, Nicolas Salamanca and Yves Zenou

32428: Early Predictors of Racial Disparities in Criminal Justice Involvement

Andrew Jordan, Ezra Karger and Derek Neal

32427: The Negligible Effect of Free Contraception on Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Burkina Faso

Pascaline Dupas, Seema Jayachandran, Adriana Lleras-Muney and Pauline Rossi

32426: Cities as Engines of Opportunities: Evidence from Brazil

Radu Barza, Edward Glaeser, Cesar Hidalgo and Martina Viarengo

32425: Identifying the Cumulative Causal Effect of a Non-Binary Treatment from a Binary Instrument

Vedant Vohra and Jacob Goldin

32424: Disentangling Exploration from Exploitation

Alessandro Lizzeri, Eran Shmaya and Leeat Yariv

32423: The Effects of Mental Health Interventions on Labor Market Outcomes in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Crick Lund, Kate Orkin, Marc Witte, John H. Walker, Thandi Davies, Johannes Haushofer, Sarah Murray, Judy Bass, Laura Murray, Wietse Tol and Vikram H. Patel

32422: From Predictive Algorithms to Automatic Generation of Anomalies

Sendhil Mullainathan and Ashesh Rambachan

32421: Understanding Economic Behavior Using Open-ended Survey Data

Ingar K. Haaland, Christopher Roth, Stefanie Stantcheva and Johannes Wohlfart

32420: U.S. Worker Mobility Across Establishments within Firms: Scope, Prevalence, and Effects on Worker Earnings

Jeronimo Carballo, Richard Mansfield and Charles Adam Pfander

32419: The Circular Economy

Don Fullerton

32418: Understanding Demand for Police Alternatives

Bocar A. Ba, Meghna Baskar, Tony Cheng and Rei Mariman

32417: Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach

S. Boragan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel

32416: Learning from Ricardo and Thompson: Machinery and Labor in the Early Industrial Revolution, and in the Age of AI

Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson

32415: Accounting for the Evolution of China’s Production and Trade Patterns

Hanwei Huang, Jiandong Ju and Vivian Yue

32414: The Costs and Benefits of Clan Culture: Elite Control versus Cooperation in China

Shuo Chen, Raymond Fisman, Xiaohuan Lan, Yongxiang Wang and Qing Ye

32413: Measuring Information Frictions in Migration Decisions: A Revealed-Preference Approach

Charly Porcher, Eduardo Morales and Thomas Fujiwara

32412: Alleviating Worker Shortages Through Targeted Subsidies: Evidence from Incentive Payments in Healthcare

Ashvin Gandhi, Andrew Olenski, Krista Ruffini and Karen Shen

32411: How Do U.S. Firms Withstand Foreign Industrial Policies?

Xiao Cen, Vyacheslav Fos and Wei Jiang

32410: Gender and Electoral Incentives: Evidence from Crisis Response

Juan Chauvin and Clemence Tricaud

32409: A Theory of Labor Markets with Inefficient Turnover

Andrés Blanco, Andres Drenik, Christian Moser and Emilio Zaratiegui

32408: The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences

Iacopo Morchio and Christian Moser

32407: Birth Order in the Very Long-Run: Estimating Firstborn Premiums between 1850 and 1940

Angela Cools, Jared Grooms, Krzysztof Karbownik, Siobhan M. O'Keefe, Joseph Price and Anthony Wray

32406: On Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations

Valerie R. Boctor, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber

32405: Empirical Tests of the Green Paradox for Climate Legislation

Maya A. Norman and Wolfram Schlenker

32404: Social-Science Genomics: Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions

Daniel Benjamin, David Cesarini, Patrick Turley and Alexander Strudwick Young

32403: Building Non-Discriminatory Algorithms in Selected Data

David Arnold, Will S. Dobbie and Peter Hull

32402: Business as Usual: Bank Net Zero Commitments, Lending, and Engagement

Parinitha R. Sastry, Emil Verner and David Marques-Ibanez

32401: The Streetlight Effect in Data-Driven Exploration

Johannes Hoelzemann, Gustavo Manso, Abhishek Nagaraj and Matteo Tranchero

32400: Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda

Saheel A. Chodavadia, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr and Louis J. Maiden

32399: A Computable Dynamic Oligopoly Model of Capacity Investment

Gautam Gowrisankaran and Philipp Schmidt-Dengler

32398: Taxes Depress Corporate Borrowing: Evidence from Private Firms

Ivan T. Ivanov, Luke Pettit and Toni Whited

32397: Quality Signaling and Demand for Renewable Energy Technology: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

Aidan Coville, Joshua Graff Zivin, Arndt Reichert and Ann-Kristin Reitmann

32396: Incentive-Compatible Unemployment Reinsurance for the Euro Area

Alexander Karaivanov, Benoit Mojon, Luiz Pereira da Silva, Albert Pierres Tejada and Robert Townsend

32395: Access to Credit Reduces the Value of Insurance

Sonia Jaffe, Anup Malani and Julian Reif

32394: Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation

Amanda Y. Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri K. Koustas, Alexandre Mas and Crystal Yang

32393: International Reserve Management under Rollover Crises

Mauricio Barbosa-Alves, Javier Bianchi and Cesar Sosa-Padilla

32392: Contingent Trade Agreements

Bard Harstad

32391: Upward Mobility in Developing Countries

Garance Genicot, Debraj Ray and Carolina Concha-Arriagada

32390: Loopholes and the Incidence of Public Services: Evidence from Funding Career & Technical Education

Thomas Goldring, Brian Jacob, Daniel Kreisman and Michael Ricks

32389: Immigration's Effect on US Wages and Employment Redux

Alessandro Caiumi and Giovanni Peri

32388: Teaching Teachers To Use Computer Assisted Learning Effectively: Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Evidence

Philip Oreopoulos, Chloe Gibbs, Michael Jensen and Joseph Price

32387: The Dollar versus the Euro as International Reserve Currencies

Menzie Chinn, Jeffrey Frankel and Hiro Ito

32386: The Rise and Fall of the Teaching Profession: Prestige, Interest, Preparation, and Satisfaction over the Last Half Century

Matthew Kraft and Melissa Arnold Lyon

32385: Ethics and Illusions: How Ethical Declarations Shape Market Behavior

John Barrios, Jeremy Bertomeu, Radhika Lunawat and Ibrahima Sall

32384: Gaining Steam: Incumbent Lock-in and Entrant Leapfrogging

Richard Hornbeck, Shanon Hsuan-Ming Hsu, Anders Humlum and Martin Rotemberg

32383: Do Female–Owned Employment Agencies Mitigate Discrimination and Expand Opportunity for Women?

Jennifer Hunt and Carolyn Moehling

32382: Social Protection in the Developing World

Abhijit Banerjee, Rema Hanna, Benjamin Olken and Diana Sverdlin Lisker

32381: Automated Social Science: Language Models as Scientist and Subjects

Benjamin S. Manning, Kehang Zhu and John Horton

32380: The Impact of Lump-Sum Retirement Withdrawals on Labor Supply: Evidence from Peru

Carla Moreno and Sita Slavov

32379: Inflation Preferences

Hassan Afrouzi, Alexander Dietrich, Kristian Myrseth, Romanos Priftis and Raphael Schoenle

32378: The Provision of Information and Incentives in School Assignment Mechanisms

Derek Neal and Joseph Root

32377: Cities, Heterogeneous Firms, and Trade

Jan David Bakker, Alvaro Garcia-Marin, Andrei V. Potlogea, Nico Voigtländer and Yang Yang

32376: Consumer-Financed Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Digital Coupons in China

Jing Ding, Lei Jiang, Lucy Msall and Matthew Notowidigdo

32375: Meritocracy across Countries

Oriana Bandiera, Ananya Kotia, Ilse Lindenlaub, Christian Moser and Andrea Prat

32374: Why Does Working from Home Vary Across Countries and People?

Pablo Zárate, Mathias Dolls, Steven Davis, Nicholas Bloom, Jose Maria Barrero and Cevat Giray Aksoy

32373: Estimating Racial Disparities When Race is Not Observed

Cory McCartan, Robin Fisher, Jacob Goldin, Daniel E. Ho and Kosuke Imai

32372: Transparency and Percent Plans

Adam Kapor

32371: Labor Market Externalities of Pre-retirement Employment Protection

Paweł Chrostek, Krzysztof Karbownik and Michal Myck

32370: The Evolution of Black-White Differences in Occupational Mobility Across Post-Civil War America

Steven Durlauf, Gueyon Kim, Dohyeon Lee and Xi Song

32369: Mechanism Reform: An Application to Child Welfare

E. Jason Baron, Richard Lombardo, Joseph P. Ryan, Jeongsoo Suh and Quitze Valenzuela-Stookey

32368: New Gig Work or Changes in Reporting? Understanding Self-Employment Trends in Tax Data

Andrew Garin, Emilie Jackson and Dmitri K. Koustas

32367: Toward an Understanding of the Economics of Misinformation: Evidence from a Demand Side Field Experiment on Critical Thinking

John List, Lina M. Ramírez, Julia Seither, Jaime Unda and Beatriz Vallejo

32366: Shocking Offers: Gender, Wage Inequality, and Recessions in Online Labor Markets

Belinda Archibong and Peter Henry

32365: One Factor to Bind the Cross-Section of Returns

Nicola Borri, Denis Chetverikov, Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski

32364: Does Inflation Affect Earnings Relevance? A Century-Long Analysis

Oliver Binz, John Graham and Matthew Kubic

32363: The Big Shift in Working Arrangements: Eight Ways Unusual

Steven Davis