NBER Working Papers

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21879: Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy Stein and Egon Zakrajšek

21878: International Coordination

Jeffrey Frankel

21877: Social Frictions to Knowledge Diffusion: Evidence from an Information Intervention

Arthur Alik-Lagrange and Martin Ravallion

21876: Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior

Eric Zwick and James Mahon

21875: Multiple Hypothesis Testing in Experimental Economics

John List, Azeem Shaikh and Yang Xu

21874: How do Hours Worked Vary with Income? Cross-Country Evidence and Implications

Alexander Bick, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln and David Lagakos

21873: Who Receives Medicaid in Old Age? Rules and Reality

Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi and Eric French

21872: Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to China

Robert Barro

21871: Rare Events and Long-Run Risks

Robert Barro and Tao Jin

21870: Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

Brian K. Chen, Hawre Jalal, Hideki Hashimoto, Sze-Chuan Suen, Karen Eggleston, Michael Hurley, Lena Schoemaker and Jay Bhattacharya

21869: An Illiquid Market in the Desert: Estimating the Cost of Water Trade Restrictions in Northern Chile

Eric Edwards, Oscar Cristi, Gonzalo Edwards and Gary Libecap

21868: Patent Citation Data in Social Science Research: Overview and Best Practices

Adam Jaffe and Gaétan de Rassenfosse

21867: Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon

Eric Leeper and Campbell Leith

21866: Fragility of Purely Real Macroeconomic Models

Narayana Kocherlakota

21865: The Causal Effects of Cultural Relevance: Evidence from an Ethnic Studies Curriculum

Thomas Dee and Emily Penner

21864: Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich and Johannes Wieland

21863: Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts

James Hamilton

21862: Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Juan F Rubio-Ramirez and Frank Schorfheide

21861: Balanced Growth Despite Uzawa

Gene Grossman, Elhanan Helpman, Ezra Oberfield and Thomas Sampson

21860: EU Accession and Foreign Owned Firms in Bulgaria

Zadia Feliciano and Nadia Doytch

21859: Electoral Incentives and the Allocation of Public Funds

Frederico Finan and Maurizio Mazzocco

21858: Disentangling Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection in Private Health Insurance

David Powell and Dana Goldman

21857: Horizontal and Vertical Conflict: Experimental Evidence

Sebastian Galiani, Cheryl Long, Camila Navajas-Ahumada and Gustavo Torrens

21856: America's First Great Moderation

Joseph Davis and Marc Weidenmier

21855: Informational Frictions and Practice Variation: Evidence from Physicians in Training

David C. Chan, Jr

21854: Simplifying Choices in Defined Contribution Retirement Plan Design

Donald Keim and Olivia Mitchell

21853: The 2008 Financial Crisis and the Lack of Retaliatory Trade Intervention

Chunding Li and John Whalley

21852: International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma

Helene Rey

21851: The Effect of Disability Insurance Payments on Beneficiaries’ Earnings

Alexander Gelber, Timothy Moore and Alexander Strand

21850: The Wage Impact of the Marielitos: Additional Evidence

George Borjas

21849: Expanding Governance as Development: Evidence on Child Nutrition in the Philippines

Eli Berman, Mitch Downey and Joseph Felter

21848: Behavioral Macroeconomics Via Sparse Dynamic Programming

Xavier Gabaix

21847: Migrants, Ancestors, and Investments

Konrad Burchardi, Thomas Chaney and Tarek Hassan

21846: The Incidence of Mandated Health Insurance: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Dependent Care Mandate

Gopi Goda, Monica Farid and Jay Bhattacharya

21845: The Decline in the Nutritional Status of the U.S. Antebellum Population at the Onset of Modern Economic Growth

John Komlos and Brian A'Hearn

21844: The Global Diffusion of Ideas

Francisco Buera and Ezra Oberfield

21843: Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops

Emmanuel Farhi and Jean Tirole

21842: Using Split Samples to Improve Inference about Causal Effects

Marcel Fafchamps and Julien Labonne

21841: Human Capital Investment, Inequality and Economic Growth

Kevin Murphy and Robert Topel

21840: The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms

Jose Asturias, Sewon Hur, Timothy Kehoe and Kim Ruhl

21839: Free to Choose: Can School Choice Reduce Student Achievement?

Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag Pathak and Christopher Walters

21838: Endogenous Volatility at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Stabilization Policy

Susanto Basu and Brent Bundick

21837: Contracting out the Last-Mile of Service Delivery: Subsidized Food Distribution in Indonesia

Abhijit Banerjee, Rema Hanna, Jordan C. Kyle, Benjamin Olken and Sudarno Sumarto

21836: Effects of ACA Medicaid Expansions on Health Insurance Coverage and Labor Supply

Robert Kaestner, A. Garrett, Anuj Gangopadhyaya and Caitlyn Fleming

21835: Incentive Design in Education: An Empirical Analysis

Hugh Macartney, Robert McMillan and Uros Petronijevic

21834: Sharing Risk with the Government: How Taxes Affect Corporate Risk Taking

Alexander Ljungqvist, Liandong Zhang and Luo Zuo

21833: Screening and Adverse Selection in Frictional Markets

Benjamin Lester, Ali Shourideh, Venky Venkateswaran and Ariel Zetlin-Jones

21832: The Welfare Effects of Vertical Integration in Multichannel Television Markets

Gregory Crawford, Robin Lee, Michael Whinston and Ali Yurukoglu

21831: An Empirical Analysis of Racial Segregation in Higher Education

Peter Hinrichs

21830: The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence from the Current Population Survey

Jeffrey Clemens

21829: The Paradox of Civilization: Pre-Institutional Sources of Security and Prosperity

Ernesto Dal Bó, Pablo Hernandez-Lagos and Sebastián Mazzuca

21828: College Party Culture and Sexual Assault

Jason Lindo, Peter Siminski and Isaac D. Swensen

21827: Changing Faculty Employment at Four-Year Colleges and Universities in the United States

Liang Zhang, Ronald Ehrenberg and Xiangmin Liu

21826: Household Location Decisions and the Value of Climate Amenities

Paramita Sinha, Maureen Cropper and Martha Caulkins

21825: The Personnel Economics of the State

Frederico Finan, Benjamin Olken and Rohini Pande

21824: The Quantity-Quality Trade-off and the Formation of Cognitive and Non-cognitive Skills

Chinhui Juhn, Yona Rubinstein and Andrew Zuppann

21823: Striving for Balance in Economics: Towards a Theory of the Social Determination of Behavior

Karla Hoff and Joseph Stiglitz

21822: Fiscal Analysis is Darned Hard

Eric Leeper

21821: The Political Economy of Government Debt

Alberto Alesina and Andrea Passalacqua

21820: Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy

Vasco Cúrdia and Michael Woodford

21819: Knowledge of Future Job Loss and Implications for Unemployment Insurance

Nathaniel Hendren

21818: The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security

Erzo Luttmer and Andrew Samwick

21817: Financial Integration and Growth in a Risky World

Nicolas Coeurdacier, Helene Rey and Pablo Winant

21816: Measuring the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asset Prices

Eric Swanson

21815: The Price Ain’t Right? Hospital Prices and Health Spending on the Privately Insured

Zack Cooper, Stuart V. Craig, Martin Gaynor and John van Reenen

21814: Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand

Saten Kumar, Hassan Afrouzi, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

21813: The Plaza Accord, 30 Years Later

Jeffrey Frankel

21812: Globalization and Its (Dis-)Content: Trade Shocks and Voting Behavior

Christian Dippel, Robert Gold and Stephan Heblich

21811: Productivity and Organization in Portuguese Firms

Lorenzo Caliendo, Giordano Mion, Luca David Opromolla and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

21810: The Dynamics of Adjustable-Rate Subprime Mortgage Default: A Structural Estimation

Hanming Fang, You Suk Kim and Wenli Li

21809: Historical Origins of a Major Killer: Cardiovascular Disease in the American South

Richard Steckel and Garrett Senney

21808: The Globalization of Angel Investments: Evidence across Countries

Josh Lerner, Antoinette Schoar, Stanislav Sokolinski and Karen Wilson

21807: Economic Impossibilities for our Grandchildren?

Kevin O'Rourke

21806: Double for Nothing? Experimental Evidence on the Impact of an Unconditional Teacher Salary Increase on Student Performance in Indonesia

Joppe de Ree, Karthik Muralidharan, Menno Pradhan and Frederic Rogers

21805: The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention

Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

21804: Total Returns to Single Family Rentals

Andrea Eisfeldt and Andrew Demers

21803: Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?

Sydney Ludvigson, Sai Ma and Serena Ng

21802: Corporate Governance and Blockchains

David Yermack

21801: The Labor Market Effects of a Refugee Wave: Applying the Synthetic Control Method to the Mariel Boatlift

Giovanni Peri and Vasil Yasenov

21800: Specialization in Bank Lending: Evidence from Exporting Firms

Daniel Paravisini, Veronica Rappoport and Philipp Schnabl

21799: A History of U.S. Debt Limits

George Hall and Thomas Sargent

21798: The Evolution of Culture and Institutions: Evidence from the Kuba Kingdom

Sara Lowes, Nathan Nunn, James Robinson and Jonathan Weigel

21797: Inferring Risk Perceptions and Preferences using Choice from Insurance Menus: Theory and Evidence

Keith Ericson, Philipp Kircher, Johannes Spinnewijn and Amanda Starc

21796: Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited

Michael Belongia and Peter Ireland

21795: In Search of Ideas: Technological Innovation and Executive Pay Inequality

Carola Frydman and Dimitris Papanikolaou

21794: Urban Networks: Connecting Markets, People, and Ideas

Edward Glaeser, Giacomo Ponzetto and Yimei Zou

21793: International Coordination and Precautionary Policies

Joshua Aizenman

21792: Controlling for the Compromise Effect Debiases Estimates of Risk Preference Parameters

Jonathan P. Beauchamp, Daniel Benjamin, Christopher F. Chabris and David Laibson

21791: A New Dilemma: Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Sudden Stop Economies

Michael Devereux, Eric Young and Changhua Yu

21790: Menthol Cigarette Advertising and Cigarette Demand

Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios and Hua Wang

21789: Voter Preferences and Political Change: Evidence from Shale Booms

Viktar Fedaseyeu, Erik Gilje and Philip E. Strahan

21788: Does Science Advance One Funeral at a Time?

Pierre Azoulay, Christian Fons-Rosen and Joshua Graff Zivin

21787: Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Chicago Microdata

Evan Herrnstadt and Erich Muehlegger

21786: Forbearance by Contract: How Building and Loans Mitigated the Mortgage Crisis of the 1930s

Sebastian Fleitas, Price Fishback and Kenneth Snowden

21785: Colonial Virginia’s Paper Money Regime, 1755-1774: a Forensic Accounting Reconstruction of the Data

Farley Grubb

21784: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain: Market Deregulation and Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies

Matteo Cacciatore, Romain Duval, Giuseppe Fiori and Fabio Ghironi

21783: Externalities and Benefit Design in Health Insurance

Amanda Starc and Robert Town

21782: The GATT's Starting Point: Tariff Levels circa 1947

Chad Bown and Douglas Irwin

21781: Improving College Access in the United States: Barriers and Policy Responses

Lindsay C. Page and Judith Scott-Clayton

21780: Listen to your Doctor, or else!: Medication Under-use and Overuse and Long-term Health Outcomes of Danish Diabetes Patients

Gisela Hostenkamp and Frank Lichtenberg