NBER Working Papers

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31427: Bottlenecks: Sectoral Imbalances and the US Productivity Slowdown

Daron Acemoglu, David Autor and Christina Patterson

31426: Institutions and Global Crop Yields

David Wuepper, Haoyu Wang, Wolfram Schlenker, Meha Jain and Robert Finger

31425: Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act

Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini and Cecilia Testa

31424: Sparse Modeling Under Grouped Heterogeneity with an Application to Asset Pricing

Lin Cong, Guanhao Feng, Jingyu He and Junye Li

31423: The Largest Insurance Expansion in History: Saving One Million Lives Per Year in China

Jonathan Gruber, Mengyun Lin and Junjian Yi

31422: Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology

Nikhil Agarwal, Alex Moehring, Pranav Rajpurkar and Tobias Salz

31421: Think Globally, Act Globally: Opportunities to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Rachel Glennerster and Seema Jayachandran

31420: Credit Allocation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Karsten Müller and Emil Verner

31419: Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning: a Three-Step Approach

Menzie Chinn, Baptiste Meunier and Sebastian Stumpner

31418: Currency Risk Premiums: A Multi-horizon Perspective

Mikhail Chernov and Magnus Dahlquist

31417: What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?

Olivier Blanchard and Ben Bernanke

31416: Production, Trade, and Cross-Border Data Flows

Qing Chang, Lin Cong, Liyong Wang and Longtian Zhang

31415: Concentration, Market Power, and Misallocation: The Role of Endogenous Customer Acquisition

Hassan Afrouzi, Andres Drenik and Ryan Kim

31414: Competitive Capture of Public Opinion

Ricardo Alonso and Gerard Padró I Miquel

31413: How Good Are Privacy Guarantees? Platform Architecture and Violation of User Privacy

Daron Acemoglu, Alireza Fallah, Ali Makhdoumi, Azarakhsh Malekian and Asuman Ozdaglar

31412: Effects of the Expanded Child Tax Credit on Household Spending: Estimates Based on U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey Data

Jake Schild, Sophie M. Collyer, Thesia Garner, Neeraj Kaushal, Jiwan Lee, Jane Waldfogel and Christopher T. Wimer

31411: Praying for Rain

José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Salvador Gil-Guirado and Nicholas Ryan

31410: The Economics of Tropical Deforestation

Clare A. Balboni, Aaron Berman, Robin Burgess and Benjamin Olken

31409: Choose Your Moments: Peer Review and Scientific Risk Taking

Richard Carson, Joshua Graff Zivin and Jeffrey Shrader

31408: Energy and the Environment in Economic History

Karen Clay

31407: Enhancing Human Capital in Children: A Case Study on Scaling

Francesco Agostinelli, Ciro Avitabile and Matteo Bobba

31406: Sibling Spillovers May Enhance the Efficacy of Targeted School Policies

David Figlio, Krzysztof Karbownik and Umut Özek

31405: The Dollar in an Era of International Retrenchment

Ryan Chahrour and Rosen Valchev

31404: Who's on (the 1040) First? Determinants and Consequences of Spouses' Name Order on Joint Returns

Emily Y. Lin, Joel Slemrod, Evelyn A. Smith and Alexander Yuskavage

31403: Bridging the Gap: Mismatch Effects and Catch-Up Dynamics in a Brazilian College Affirmative Action

Rodrigo Oliveira, Alei Santos and Edson Severnini

31402: Foreign Residents and the Future of Global Cities

Joao Guerreiro, Sergio Rebelo, Pedro Teles and Miguel Godinho de Matos

31401: Policy Uncertainty Reduces Green Investment

Mengyu Wang, Jeffrey Wurgler and Hong Zhang

31400: Gender-Neutral Language and Gender Disparities

Alma Cohen, Tzur Karelitz, Tamar Kricheli-Katz, Sephi Pumpian and Tali Regev

31399: Exporting Ideology: The Right and Left of Foreign Influence

Pol Antras and Gerard Padró I Miquel

31398: How Do Firms Respond to State Retirement Plan Mandates?

Adam Bloomfield, Kyung Min Lee, Jay Philbrick and Sita Slavov

31397: How Costs Limit Contraceptive Use among Low-Income Women in the U.S.: A Randomized Control Trial

Martha Bailey, Vanessa Wanner Lang, Alexa Prettyman, Iris Vrioni, Lea J. Bart, Daniel Eisenberg, Paula Fomby, Jennifer Barber and Vanessa Dalton

31396: The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Funding Composition: The Role of Deposit Market Regulation

Kaiji Chen, Yiqing Xiao and Tao Zha

31395: China's Macroeconomic Development: The Role of Gradualist Reforms

Kaiji Chen and Tao Zha

31394: In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid

Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague

31393: Design-Based Identification with Formula Instruments: A Review

Kirill Borusyak, Peter Hull and Xavier Jaravel

31392: The Impact of Fear on Police Behavior and Public Safety

Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Gonçalves and Emily Weisburst

31391: Treatment for Mental Health and Substance Use: Spillovers to Police Safety

Monica Deza, Thanh Lu, Johanna Maclean and Alberto Ortega

31390: International Trade, Noise Pollution, and Killer Whales

M. Scott Taylor and Fruzsina Mayer

31389: Do Municipal Bond Investors Pay a Convenience Premium to Avoid Taxes?

Matthias Fleckenstein and Francis Longstaff

31388: When Your Bootstraps Are Not Enough: How Demand and Supply Interact to Generate Learning in Settings of Extreme Poverty

Alex Eble and Maya Escueta

31387: The Urban Wage Premium in Historical Perspective

Kyle Butts, Taylor Jaworski and Carl Kitchens

31386: Gold's Value as an Investment

Urban Jermann

31385: Is it the Message or the Messenger? Examining Movement in Immigration Beliefs

Hassan Afrouzi, Carolina Arteaga and Emily K. Weisburst

31384: Identification of Non-Additive Fixed Effects Models: Is the Return to Teacher Quality Homogeneous?

Jinyong Hahn, John Singleton and Neşe Yildiz

31383: Does Anger Drive Populism?

Omer Ali, Klaus Desmet and Romain Wacziarg

31382: Anatomy of the Phillips Curve: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications

Luca Gagliardone, Mark Gertler, Simone Lenzu and Joris Tielens

31381: The Welfare Economics of Reference Dependence

Daniel Reck and Arthur Seibold

31380: Monetary Policy Transmission Through Online Banks

Isil Erel, Jack Liebersohn, Constantine Yannelis and Samuel Earnest

31379: The Impact of Lead Exposure on Fertility, Infant Mortality, and Infant Birth Outcomes

Karen Clay, Alex Hollingsworth and Edson Severnini

31378: Trade Integration, Industry Reallocation, and Welfare in Colombia

George Alessandria and Oscar Avila-Montealegre

31377: Transmission Impossible? Prospects for Decarbonizing the US Grid

Lucas Davis, Catherine Hausman and Nancy Rose

31376: A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution

William Boning, Nathaniel Hendren, Ben Sprung-Keyser and Ellen Stuart

31375: Who Benefits from a Smaller Honors Track?

Zachary Szlendak and Richard Mansfield

31374: Return on Returns: Building Scientific Capacity in AIDS Endemic Countries

Caroline Fry and Ina Ganguli

31373: Why Do Wages Grow Faster for Educated Workers?

David Deming

31372: How Does Data Access Shape Science? The Impact of Federal Statistical Research Data Centers on Economics Research

Abhishek Nagaraj and Matteo Tranchero

31371: Pricing Neighborhoods

Sadegh Eshaghnia, James Heckman and Goya Razavi

31370: Monetary Policy Operations: Theory, Evidence, and Tools for Quantitative Analysis

Ricardo Lagos and Gaston Navarro

31369: Optimal Public Transportation Networks: Evidence from the World's Largest Bus Rapid Transit System in Jakarta

Gabriel Kreindler, Arya Gaduh, Tilman Graff, Rema Hanna and Benjamin Olken

31368: Chat Over Coffee? Diffusion of Agronomic Practices and Market Spillovers in Rwanda

Esther Duflo, Daniel Keniston, Tavneet Suri and Céline Zipfel

31367: Understanding Trends in Chinese Skill Premiums, 2007-2018

Eric Hanushek, Yuan Wang and Lei Zhang

31366: The Spillover Effects of Top Income Inequality

Joshua Gottlieb, David Hemous, Jeffrey Hicks and Morten G. Olsen

31365: The Historical Impact of Coal on Cities

Karen Clay, Joshua Lewis and Edson Severnini

31364: Screen Now, Save Later? The Trade-Off between Administrative Ordeals and Fraud

Shan Aman-Rana, Daniel W. Gingerich and Sandip Sukhtankar

31363: Foreign Direct Investment, Global Value Chains, and Labor Rights: No Race-to-the-Bottom?

Hyejoon Im and John McLaren

31362: Global Value Chains and Labor Standards: The Race-to-the-Bottom Problem

Hyejoon Im and John McLaren

31361: Fatal Errors: The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts

Jeffrey Shrader, Laura Bakkensen and Derek Lemoine

31360: Avoiding Idiosyncratic Volatility: Flow Sensitivity to Individual Stock Returns

Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni, Shimon Kogan and Ran Xing

31359: The Value of Student Debt Relief and the Role of Administrative Barriers: Evidence from the Teacher Loan Forgiveness Program

Brian Jacob, Damon Jones and Benjamin Keys

31358: Globalization, Structural Change and International Comovement

Barthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Andrei Levchenko and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

31357: New Technologies and Jobs in Europe

Stefania Albanesi, António Dias da Silva, Juan F. Jimeno, Ana Lamo and Alena Wabitsch

31356: Finance and Climate Resilience: Evidence from the long 1950s US Drought

Raghuram Rajan and Rodney Ramcharan

31355: Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits

Linda Goldberg

31354: The Benefits and Costs of Guest Worker Programs: Experimental Evidence from the India-UAE Migration Corridor

Suresh Naidu, Yaw Nyarko and Shing-Yi Wang

31353: Gaming and Effort in Performance Pay

Luca Bertuzzi, Paul Eliason, Benjamin Heebsh, Riley J. League, Ryan McDevitt and James W. Roberts

31352: Resting on Their Laureates? Research Productivity Among Winners of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine

Jay Bhattacharya, Paul Bollyky, Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert, Geir H. Holom, Mikko Packalen and David M. Studdert

31351: The Neoclassical Growth of China

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Lee Ohanian and Wen Yao

31350: Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index: A New Employment Series for the US, Canada, and the UK

Ufuk Akcigit, Raman Singh Chhina, Seyit Cilasun, Javier Miranda, Eren Ocakverdi and Nicolas Serrano-Velarde

31349: Optimal Paternalism in a Population with Bounded Rationality: with Focus on Discrete Choice

Charles Manski and Eytan Sheshinski

31348: War Discourse and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns

David Hirshleifer, Dat Mai and Kuntara Pukthuanthong

31347: A Theory of Price Caps on Non-Renewable Resources

Simon Johnson, Lukasz Rachel and Catherine Wolfram

31346: Ph.D. Publication Productivity: The Role of Gender and Race in Supervision in South Africa

Giulia Rossello, Robin Cowan and Jacques Mairesse

31345: Public Education and Intergenerational Housing Wealth Effects

Michael Gilraine, James Graham and Angela Zheng

31344: The Economic Determinants of Heat Pump Adoption

Lucas Davis

31343: Why Does the Folk Theorem Do Not Seem to Work When It Is Mostly Needed?

Johann Caro-Burnett, Sebastian Galiani and Gustavo Torrens

31342: Pandemic-Era Changes to Medicaid Enrollment and Funding: Implications for Future Policy and Research

Laura Dague and Benjamin Ukert

31341: Techies and Firm Level Productivity

James Harrigan, Ariell Reshef and Farid Toubal

31340: Community-Based Health Programs and Child Vaccinations: Evidence from Madagascar

Catalina Herrera-Almanza and Maria Rosales-Rueda

31339: The 2021 Child Tax Credit, the Living Arrangements and Housing Affordability of Families with Low Incomes

Natasha V. Pilkauskas, Katherine Michelmore and Nicole Kovski

31338: Violent Discipline and Parental Behavior: Short- and Medium-term Effects of Virtual Parenting Support to Caregivers

Lelys Dinarte Diaz, Saravana Ravindran, Manisha Shah, Shawn M. Powers and Helen Baker-Henningham

31337: The Empirical Distribution of Firm Dynamics and Its Macro Implications

Nir Jaimovich, Stephen Terry and Nicolas Vincent

31336: Plugging Gaps in Payment Systems: Evidence from the Take-Up of New Medicare Billing Codes

Jeffrey Clemens, Jonathan Leganza and Alex Masucci

31335: On the Allocation and Impacts of Managerial Training

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Emir Murathanoglu and Anant Nyshadham

31334: De-skilling: Evidence from Late Nineteenth Century American Manufacturing

Jeremy Atack, Robert Margo and Paul Rhode

31333: Tax Design, Information, and Elasticities: Evidence From the French Wealth Tax

Bertrand Garbinti, Jonathan Goupille-Lebret, Mathilde Muñoz, Stefanie Stantcheva and Gabriel Zucman

31332: How the 1963 Equal Pay Act and 1964 Civil Rights Act Shaped the Gender Gap in Pay

Martha Bailey, Thomas E. Helgerman and Bryan Stuart

31331: The Confederate Diaspora

Samuel Bazzi, Andreas Ferrara, Martin Fiszbein, Thomas P. Pearson and Patrick Testa

31330: The Demand for Mobility: Evidence from an Experiment with Uber Riders

Peter Christensen and Adam Osman

31329: Corporate Discount Rates

Niels Gormsen and Kilian Huber

31328: School Choice, Competition, and Aggregate School Quality

Michael Gilraine, Uros Petronijevic and John Singleton