NBER Working Papers

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28662: Terrorism and Political Attitudes: Evidence from European Social Surveys

Giovanni Peri, Daniel Rees and Brock Smith

28661: Persuading with Anecdotes

Nika Haghtalab, Nicole Immorlica, Brendan Lucier, Markus Mobius and Divyarthi Mohan

28660: “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For”: Evidence of Directed Search from a Field Experiment

Haoran He, David Neumark and Qian Weng

28659: The Welfare Effect of a Consumer Subsidy with Price Ceilings: The Case of Chinese Cell Phones

Ying Fan and Ge Zhang

28658: Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks

Alyssa G. Anderson, Wenxin Du and Bernd Schlusche

28657: Productivity Growth and Workers’ Job Transitions: Evidence from Censal Microdata

Elias Albagli, Mario Canales, Chad Syverson, Matias Tapia and Juan Wlasiuk

28656: The Great Transition: Kuznets Facts for Family-Economists

Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Ricardo Marto

28655: Diversity and Team Performance in a Kenyan Organization

Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Tavneet Suri

28654: Repricing Avalanches

Makoto Nirei and Jose Scheinkman

28653: Choosing the Future: Markets, Ethics, and Rapprochement in Social Discounting

Antony Millner and Geoffrey Heal

28652: Parental Skills, Assortative Mating, and the Incidence of Autism Spectrum Disorder

N. Meltem Daysal, Todd Elder, Judith Hellerstein, Scott Imberman and Chiara Orsini

28651: Correcting Perceived Social Distancing Norms to Combat COVID-19

James Allen, Arlete Mahumane, James Riddell Iv, Tanya Rosenblat, Dean Yang and Hang Yu

28650: Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?

Benjamin Enke, Uri Gneezy, Brian Hall, David C. Martin, Vadim Nelidov, Theo Offerman and Jeroen van de Ven

28649: Representation is Not Sufficient for Selecting Gender Diversity

Justus A. Baron, Bernhard Ganglmair, Nicola Persico, Timothy Simcoe and Emanuele Tarantino

28648: Mammograms and Mortality: How Has the Evidence Evolved?

Amanda Kowalski

28647: The Public Health Effects of Legalizing Marijuana

D. Mark Anderson and Daniel Rees

28646: Policy Implications of Non-Linear Effects of Tax Changes on Output

Samara Gunter, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin

28645: Back to School: The Effect of School Visits During COVID-19 on COVID-19 Transmission

Dena Bravata, Jonathan H. Cantor, Neeraj Sood and Christopher Whaley

28644: Guaranteed Markets and Corporate Scientific Research

Sharon Belenzon and Larisa C. Cioaca

28643: Labor Rationing

Emily Breza, Supreet Kaur and Yogita Shamdasani

28642: Surviving a Mass Shooting

Prashant Bharadwaj, Manudeep Bhuller, Katrine Løken and Mirjam Wentzel

28641: Food vs. Food Stamps: Evidence from an At-Scale Experiment in Indonesia

Abhijit Banerjee, Rema Hanna, Benjamin Olken, Elan Satriawan and Sudarno Sumarto

28640: The Labor Effects of Judicial Bias in Bankruptcy

Aloisio Araujo, Rafael Ferreira, Spyridon Lagaras, Flavio Moraes, Jacopo Ponticelli and Margarita Tsoutsoura

28639: The Pricing Strategies of Online Grocery Retailers

Diego Aparicio, Zachary Metzman and Roberto Rigobon

28638: Optimal Product Design: Implications for Competition and Growth under Declining Search Frictions

Guido Menzio

28637: Taxing Property in Developing Countries: Theory and Evidence from Mexico

Anne Brockmeyer, Alejandro Estefan, Karina Ramírez Arras and Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato

28636: Pandemics, Incentives, and Economic Policy: A Dynamic Model

Roberto Chang, Humberto Martínez and Andrés Velasco

28635: Dispersion in Financing Costs and Development

Tiago Cavalcanti, Joseph Kaboski, Bruno S. Martins and Cezar Santos

28634: Effects of School Shootings on Risky Behavior, Health and Human Capital

Partha Deb and Anjelica Gangaram

28633: Changing Returns to Scale in Manufacturing 1880-1930: The Rise of (Skilled) Labor?

Jeanne Lafortune, Ethan Lewis, José Pablo Martínez and José Tessada

28632: From Mancession to Shecession: Women's Employment in Regular and Pandemic Recessions

Titan Alon, Sena Coskun, Matthias Doepke, David Koll and Michele Tertilt

28631: Monopoly of Taxation Without a Monopoly of Violence: The Weak State’s Trade-Offs From Taxation

Soeren Henn, Christian Mastaki Mugaruka, Miguel Ortiz, Raúl Sánchez de la Sierra and David Qihang Wu

28630: Can Automatic Retention Improve Health Insurance Market Outcomes?

Adrianna L. McIntyre, Mark Shepard and Myles Wagner

28629: COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Alessandro Rebucci

28628: Estimating the Financial Impact of Gene Therapy in the U.S

Chi Heem Wong, Dexin Li, Nina Wang, Jonathan Gruber, Rena Conti and Andrew Lo

28627: Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020

David Jacks and Martin Stuermer

28626: Using Machine Learning and Qualitative Interviews to Design a Five-Question Women's Agency Index

Seema Jayachandran, Monica Biradavolu and Jan Cooper

28625: The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending

Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny and Michael Weber

28624: Discontinued Positive Feedback Trading and the Decline of Return Predictability

Itzhak Ben-David, Jiacui Li, Andrea Rossi and Yang Song

28623: When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870

Paul Bouscasse, Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson

28622: Body-Worn Cameras in Policing: Benefits and Costs

Morgan C. Williams, Nathan Weil, Elizabeth A. Rasich, Jens Ludwig, Hye Chang and Sophia Egrari

28621: Public Health Policy at Scale: Impact of a Government-sponsored Information Campaign on Infant Mortality in Denmark

Onur Altindag, Jane Greve and Erdal Tekin

28620: Carbon Policy and the Emissions Implications of Electric Vehicles

Kenneth Gillingham, Marten Ovaere and Stephanie M. Weber

28619: The Incidence and Magnitude of the Health Costs of In-person Schooling during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Casey Mulligan

28618: Millennials and the Take-Off of Craft Brands: Preference Formation in the U.S. Beer Industry

Bart J. Bronnenberg, Jean-Pierre H. Dubé and Joonhwi Joo

28617: The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes

Jonas E. Arias, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Juan F Rubio-Ramirez and Minchul Shin

28616: The Smoot-Hawley Trade War

Kris James Mitchener, Kirsten Wandschneider and Kevin O'Rourke

28615: Big Data in Finance

Itay Goldstein, Chester S. Spatt and Mao Ye

28614: Weather, Climate, and Migration in the United States

Jamie T. Mullins and Prashant Bharadwaj

28613: Financial and Total Wealth Inequality with Declining Interest Rates

Daniel Greenwald, Matteo Leombroni, Hanno Lustig and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

28612: Does LEED Certification Save Energy? Evidence from Retrofitted Federal Buildings

Karen Clay, Edson Severnini and Xiaochen Sun

28611: Pay Me Later: Savings Constraints and the Demand for Deferred Payments

Lasse Brune, Eric Chyn and Jason Kerwin

28610: Slippery Fish: Enforcing Regulation when Agents Learn and Adapt

Andres Gonzalez-Lira and Ahmed Mobarak

28609: The Rise of Dual-Class Stock IPOs

Dhruv Aggarwal, Ofer Eldar, Yael Hochberg and Lubomir P. Litov

28608: Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Ilhyock Shim and Xiaoxi Liu

28607: Aspirations and Financial Decisions: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines

David McKenzie, Aakash Mohpal and Dean Yang

28606: Rugged Entrepreneurs: The Geographic and Cultural Contours of New Business Formation

John Barrios, Yael Hochberg and Daniele Macciocchi

28605: Career Spillovers in Internal Labor Markets

Nicola Bianchi, Giulia Bovini, Jin Li, Matteo Paradisi and Michael Powell

28604: Diagnostic Business Cycles

Francesco Bianchi, Cosmin Ilut and Hikaru Saijo

28603: Africa's Latent Assets

Soeren Henn and James Robinson

28602: Patent Auctions and Bidding Coalitions: Structuring the Sale of Club Goods

John Asker, Mariagiovanna Baccara and SangMok Lee

28601: Addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparing Alternative Value Frameworks

Maddalena Ferranna, Sevilla Jp and David Bloom

28600: Misdemeanor Prosecution

Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac and Anna Harvey

28599: Sovereign Debt Ratchets and Welfare Destruction

Peter DeMarzo, Zhiguo He and Fabrice Tourre

28598: Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century

Kris James Mitchener and Christoph Trebesch

28597: Industrialization and Urbanization in Nineteenth Century America

Jeremy Atack, Robert Margo and Paul Rhode

28596: Diversity in Schools: Immigrants and the Educational Performance of U.S. Born Students

David Figlio, Paola Giuliano, Riccardo Marchingiglio, Umut Özek and Paola Sapienza

28595: Welfare Consequences of Sustainable Finance

Harrison Hong, Neng Wang and Jinqiang Yang

28594: Combining Rules and Discretion in Economic Development Policy: Evidence on the Impacts of the California Competes Tax Credit

Matthew Freedman, David Neumark and Shantanu Khanna

28593: Experimental Evidence on the Effectiveness of Non-Experts for Improving Vaccine Demand

Marcella Alsan and Sarah Eichmeyer

28592: The Voice of Monetary Policy

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Tho Pham and Oleksandr Talavera

28591: Adaptation to Environmental Change: Agriculture and the Unexpected Incidence of the Acid Rain Program

Nicholas Sanders and Alan Barreca

28590: The Value of Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance

Casey Mulligan

28589: Dynamic Oligopoly Pricing with Asymmetric Information: Implications for Horizontal Mergers

Andrew Sweeting, Xuezhen Tao and Xinlu Yao

28588: Digital Resilience: How Work-From-Home Feasibility Affects Firm Performance

John (Jianqiu) Bai, Erik Brynjolfsson, Wang Jin, Sebastian Steffen and Chi Wan

28587: The Repeated Setbacks of HIV Vaccine Development Laid the Groundwork for SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines

Jeffrey E. Harris

28586: Human Capital and Black-White Earnings Gaps, 1966-2017

Owen Thompson

28585: Central Bank Swap Arrangements in the COVID-19 Crisis

Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito and Gurnain Pasricha

28584: Information Spillovers in Experience Goods Competition

Zhuoqiong Charlie Chen, Christopher T. Stanton and Catherine Thomas

28583: Old Boys' Clubs and Upward Mobility Among the Educational Elite

Valerie Michelman, Joseph Price and Seth Zimmerman

28582: Dynamic Bank Expansion: Spatial Growth, Financial Access, and Inequality

Yan Ji, Songyuan Teng and Robert Townsend

28581: Reducing Parent-School Information Gaps and Improving Education Outcomes: Evidence from High-Frequency Text Messages

Samuel Berlinski, Matias Busso, Taryn Dinkelman and Claudia Martínez A.

28580: Real and Private-Value Assets

William Goetzmann, Christophe Spaenjers and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

28579: Not a Typical Firm: The Joint Dynamics of Firms, Labor Shares, and Capital–Labor Substitution

Joachim Hubmer and Pascual Restrepo

28578: The Political Economy of Responses to COVID-19 in the U.S.A

Zhihan Cui, Geoffrey Heal, Howard Kunreuther and Lu Liu

28577: Oh, How the Mighty Have Fallen: The Bank Failures and Near Failures That Started America’s Greatest Financial Panics

Hugh Rockoff

28576: Trading Spaces: Medicare’s Regulatory Spillovers on Treatment Setting for Non-Medicare Patients

Michael Geruso and Michael R. Richards

28575: The Causal Effect of Depression and Anxiety on Life Satisfaction: An Instrumental Variable Approach

Arnar Buason, Edward Norton, Paul McNamee, Edda Bjork Thordardottir and Tinna Laufey Asgeirsdóttir

28574: The Mortgage Piggy Bank: Building Wealth through Amortization

Asaf Bernstein and Peter Koudijs

28573: JUE Insight: The Impacts of Opportunity Zones on Zone Residents

Matthew Freedman, Shantanu Khanna and David Neumark

28572: Unequal Jury Representation and Its Consequences

Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer and Randi Hjalmarsson

28571: SVARs With Occasionally-Binding Constraints

S. Boragan Aruoba, Marko Mlikota, Frank Schorfheide and Sergio Villalvazo

28570: Testing for Parameter Instability and Structural Change in Persistent Predictive Regressions

Torben Andersen and Rasmus T. Varneskov

28569: Consistent Local Spectrum (LCM) Inference for Predictive Return Regressions

Torben Andersen and Rasmus T. Varneskov

28568: Consistent Inference for Predictive Regressions in Persistent Economic Systems

Torben Andersen and Rasmus T. Varneskov

28567: The Impact of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation on Job Search and Vacancy Creation

Ioana Marinescu, Daphne Skandalis and Daniel Zhao

28566: Family Companionship and Elderly Suicide: Evidence from the Chinese Lunar New Year

Hanming Fang, Ziteng Lei, Liguo Lin and Peng Zhang

28565: A Welfare Analysis of Competitive Insurance Markets with Vertical Differentiation and Adverse Selection

W. Bentley Macleod

28564: Climate Royalty Surcharges

Brian Prest and James Stock

28563: Water Infrastructure and Health in U.S. Cities

Brian Beach