NBER Working Papers

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31962: Does Wealth Inhibit Criminal Behavior? Evidence from Swedish Lottery Winners and Their Children

David Cesarini, Erik Lindqvist, Robert Östling and Christofer Schroeder

31961: The Traveling Trucker Problem

Treb Allen, David Atkin, Santiago Cantillo-Cleves and Carlos Eduardo Hernández

31960: The Cost of Climate Policy to Capital: Evidence from Renewable Portfolio Standards

Harrison Hong, Jeffrey D. Kubik and Edward P. Shore

31959: Closing the Productivity Gap with the US: Causes and Consequences of the Productivity Program in Western Europe

Michela Giorcelli

31958: Societal Aging and its Impact on Singapore

Cynthia Chen, Julian Lim, Abhijit Visaria and Angelique Chan

31957: Toxified to the Bone: Early-Life and Childhood Exposure to Lead and Men’s Old-Age Mortality

Jason Fletcher and Hamid Noghanibehambari

31956: The Effects of Social Security Incentives on Retirement in Spain

Pilar Garcia-Gomez, Silvia Garcia-Mandicó, Sergi Jimenez-Martin and Judit Vall Castello

31955: Occupational Hazard? An Analysis of Birth Outcomes Among Physician Mothers

Anupam Jena, David Slusky and Lilly Springer

31954: Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Matteo Cacciatore, Daniela Hauser and Stefano Gnocchi

31953: Fiscal Federalism and Monetary Unions

Rafael Berriel, Eugenia Gonzalez-Aguado, Patrick Kehoe and Elena Pastorino

31952: On the Economics of Extinction and Mass Extinctions

M. Scott Taylor and Rolf Weder

31951: Neoclassical Growth in an Interdependent World

Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu, Stephen Redding and Motohiro Yogo

31950: Geopolitical Shocks And Commodity Market Dynamics: New Evidence From The Russian-Ukraine Conflict

Joshua Aizenman, Robert Lindahl, David Stenvall and Gazi Uddin

31949: Natural and Neutral Real Interest Rates: Past and Future

Maurice Obstfeld

31948: The World’s Rust Belts: The Heterogeneous Effects of Deindustrialization on 1,993 Cities in Six Countries

Luisa Gagliardi, Enrico Moretti and Michel Serafinelli

31947: Market Design and Maintenance

Alvin Roth

31946: An Empirical Analysis of the Interconnection Queue

Sarah Johnston, Yifei Liu and Chenyu Yang

31945: Econometric Causality: The Central Role of Thought Experiments

James Heckman and Rodrigo Pinto

31944: Rising Income Tax Complexity

Youssef Benzarti and Luisa Wallossek

31943: Sovereign Default and Tax-smoothing in the Shadow of Corruption and Institutional Weakness

Marina Azzimonti and Nirvana Mitra

31942: Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey

Dmitry Arkhangelsky and Guido Imbens

31941: Influencing Policy and Transforming Institutions: Lessons from Kidney/Liver Exchange

Tayfun Sönmez and Utku Unver

31940: Updating about Yourself by Learning about the Market: The Dynamics of Beliefs and Expectations in Job Search

Qiwei He and Philipp Kircher

31939: Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions

Andrew Jordan, Ezra Karger and Derek Neal

31938: Impacts of the Jones Act on U.S. Petroleum Markets

Ryan Kellogg and Richard Sweeney

31937: Dollar Shortages, CIP Deviations, and the Safe Haven Role of the Dollar

Philippe Bacchetta, Jonathan Davis and Eric van Wincoop

31936: Security Analysis and the Collection of Hard and Soft Information

Azi Ben-Rephael, Bruce I. Carlin, Zhi Da and Ryan Israelsen

31935: American Disclosure Options

Kerry Back, Bruce I. Carlin, Seyed Mohammad Kazempour and Chloe L. Xie

31934: An Evaluation of Protected Area Policies in the European Union

Tristan Grupp, Prakash Mishra, Mathias Reynaert and Arthur A. van Benthem

31933: Optimal Exchange Rate Policy

Oleg Itskhoki and Dmitry Mukhin

31932: Revisiting the Eswaran-Kotwal Model of Tenancy

Maitreesh Ghatak and Dilip Mookherjee

31931: The Power to Conserve: A Field Experiment on Electricity Use in Qatar

Omar Al-Ubaydli, Alecia Cassidy, Anomitro Chatterjee, Ahmed Khalifa and Michael Price

31930: Eliciting Willingness-to-Pay to Decompose Beliefs and Preferences that Determine Selection into Competition in Lab Experiments

Yvonne Chen, Deniz Dutz, Li Li, Sarah Moon, Edward Vytlacil and Songfa Zhong

31929: The Labor Market Effects of Legal Restrictions on Worker Mobility

Matthew S. Johnson, Kurt Lavetti and Michael Lipsitz

31928: One Hundred Years of Exchange Rate Economics at The University of Chicago: 1892-1992

Sebastian Edwards

31927: Information Leakage from Short Sellers

Fernando Chague, Bruno Giovannetti and Bernard Herskovic

31926: The Semblance of Success in Nudging Consumers to Pay Down Credit Card Debt

Benedict Guttman-Kenney, Paul D. Adams, Stefan Hunt, David Laibson, Neil Stewart and Jesse Leary

31925: The Impact of AI and Cross-Border Data Regulation on International Trade in Digital Services: A Large Language Model

Ruiqi Sun and Daniel Trefler

31924: Can Socially-Minded Governance Control the AGI Beast?

Joshua Gans

31923: Macroeconomic Announcement Premium

Hengjie Ai, Ravi Bansal and Hongye Guo

31922: Winners and Losers from the U.S.-China Trade War

Alicia H. Dang, Kala Krishna and Yingyan Zhao

31921: Regulating Artificial Intelligence

Joao Guerreiro, Sergio Rebelo and Pedro Teles

31920: How Much Are the Poor Losing From Tax Competition?

Mathilde Muñoz

31919: Browsers Don’t Lie? Gender Differences in the Effects of the Indian COVID-19 Lockdown on Digital Activity and Time Use

Amalia Miller, Kamalini Ramdas and Alp Sungu

31918: Family Trees and Falling Apples: Historical Intergenerational Mobility Estimates for Women and Men

Kasey Buckles, Joseph Price, Zachary Ward and Haley E.B. Wilbert

31917: Age and Suicide Impulsivity: Evidence from Handgun Purchase Delay Laws

John Donohue, Samuel V. Cai and Arjun Ravi

31916: The Outlook for Women's Employment and Labor Force Participation

Stefania Albanesi

31915: Federal Reserve Structure and the Production of Monetary Policy Ideas

Michael Bordo and Edward S. Prescott

31914: The Wealth of Working Nations

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Gustavo Ventura and Wen Yao

31913: Polarizing Corporations: Does Talent Flow to "Good" Firms?

Emanuele Colonnelli, Timothy McQuade, Gabriel Ramos, Thomas Rauter and Olivia Xiong

31912: Distributional Tax Analysis in Theory and Practice: Harberger Meets Diamond-Mirrlees

Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

31911: The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Leave: Exploiting Forty Years of U.S. Policy Variation

Andrea Flores, George-Levi Gayle and Andrés Hincapié

31910: Automation: Theory, Evidence, and Outlook

Pascual Restrepo

31909: Contingent Credit Under Stress

Viral Acharya, Maximilian Jager and Sascha Steffen

31908: Cost-Sharing in Medical Care Can Increase Adult Mortality: Evidence from Colombia

Giancarlo Buitrago, Javier Amaya-Nieto, Grant Miller and Marcos Vera-Hernandez

31907: Risk-On Risk-Off: A Multifaceted Approach to Measuring Global Investor Risk Aversion

Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian Lundblad

31906: Schooling and Intergenerational Mobility: Consequences of Expanding Higher Education Institutions

Noemi Katzkowicz, Victor Lavy, Martina Querejeta and Tatiana Rosá

31905: New Views Of Structural Transformation: Insights From Recent Literature

Douglas Gollin and Joseph Kaboski

31904: Sequential Search for Corporate Bonds

Mahyar Kargar, Benjamin Lester, Sébastien Plante and Pierre-Olivier Weill

31903: One-Sided Limited Commitment and Aggregate Risk

Yoshiki Ando, Dirk Krueger and Harald Uhlig

31902: Optimal Subsidies for Green Hydrogen Production

Harrison Fell, Stephen Holland and Andrew Yates

31901: The High Frequency Effects of Dollar Swap Lines

Rohan Kekre and Moritz Lenel

31900: Evaluating Tax Harmonization

James Hines

31899: The Effect of Public Science on Corporate R&D

Ashish Arora, Sharon Belenzon, Larisa C. Cioaca, Lia Sheer and Hansen Zhang

31898: What Do Impact Investors Do Differently?

Shawn Cole, Leslie Jeng, Josh Lerner, Natalia Rigol and Benjamin N. Roth

31897: Learning by Investing: Entrepreneurial Spillovers from Venture Capital

Josh Lerner, Jinlin Li and Tong Liu

31896: Who Bears the Costs of Inflation? Euro Area Households and the 2021–2023 Shock

Filippo Pallotti, Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, Jiri Slacalek, Oreste Tristani and Giovanni Violante

31895: The Impact of Commercial Real Estate Regulations on U.S. Output

Fil Babalievsky, Kyle F. Herkenhoff, Lee Ohanian and Edward Prescott

31894: How Do Households Respond to Income Shocks?

Dirk Krueger, Egor Malkov and Fabrizio Perri

31893: What to do when you can't use '1.96' Confidence Intervals for IV

David S. Lee, Justin McCrary, Marcelo Moreira, Jack R. Porter and Luther Yap

31892: The Voting Premium

Doron Y. Levit, Nadya Malenko and Ernst G. Maug

31891: Corporate Debt Structure with Home and International Currency Bias

Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman and Jesse Schreger

31890: The Debauchery of Currency and Inflation: Chile, 1970-1973

Sebastian Edwards

31889: Long-term Care in Denmark

Mette Gørtz, Bent Jesper Christensen and Nabanita Datta Gupta

31888: Heterogeneous and Racialized Impacts of State Incarceration Policies on Birth Outcomes in the U.S

Courtney Boen, Elizabeth Bair, Hedwig Lee and Atheendar Venkataramani

31887: Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers

Julian di Giovanni, Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Álvaro Silva and Muhammed A. Yildirim

31886: The Extent of the Market for Early American Bank Notes

Howard Bodenhorn

31885: Importing the Opioid Crisis? International Trade and Fentanyl Overdoses

Timothy Moore, William Olney and Benjamin Hansen

31884: Insurance Coverage and Provision of Opioid Treatment: Evidence from Medicare

Denis Agniel, Jonathan H. Cantor, Johanna Maclean, Kosali Simon and Erin Taylor

31883: Ten Facts about Son Preference in India

Seema Jayachandran

31882: Long-term Care Around the World

Jonathan Gruber, Kathleen McGarry and Charles Hanzel

31881: Long-term Care in the United States

Jonathan Gruber and Kathleen McGarry

31880: The Power of Proximity to Coworkers: Training for Tomorrow or Productivity Today?

Natalia Emanuel, Emma Harrington and Amanda Pallais

31879: Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos

31878: Recent Developments in Financial Risk and the Real Economy

Ian Dew-Becker and Stefano Giglio

31877: Combinatorial Discrete Choice: Theory and Application to Multinational Production

Costas Arkolakis, Fabian Eckert and Rowan Shi

31876: International Trade Responses to Labor Market Regulations

Mathilde Muñoz

31875: The Economics of Long-Term Care in Canada

Kevin Milligan and Tammy Schirle

31874: Late Bloomers: The Aggregate Implications of Getting Education Later in Life

Zsofia Barany, Moshe Buchinsky and Pauline Corblet

31873: The Environmental Impacts of Protected Area Policy

Mathias Reynaert, Eduardo A. Souza-Rodrigues and Arthur A. van Benthem

31872: A Model of Behavioral Manipulation

Daron Acemoglu, Ali Makhdoumi, Azarakhsh Malekian and Asuman Ozdaglar

31871: Geographic Variation in Cesarean Sections in the United States: Trends, Correlates, and Other Interesting Facts

Sarah Robinson, Heather Royer and David Silver

31870: Long-term Care in Germany

Johannes Geyer, Axel H. Börsch-Supan, Peter Haan and Elsa Perdrix

31869: One Says Goodbye, Another Says Hello: Turnover and Compensation in the Early Care and Education Sector

Flavio Cunha and Marcos Lee

31868: Identification using Revealed Preferences in Linearly Separable Models

Nikhil Agarwal, Pearl Z. Li and Paulo J. Somaini

31867: The Impact of Right-to-Work Laws on Long Hours and Work Schedules

Rania Gihleb, Osea Giuntella and Jian Qi Tan

31866: Job Transitions and Employee Earnings After Acquisitions: Linking Corporate and Worker Outcomes

David Arnold, Kevin Milligan, Terry Moon and Amirhossein Tavakoli

31865: The Deposit Business at Large vs. Small Banks

Adrien d'Avernas, Andrea Eisfeldt, Can Huang, Richard Stanton and Nancy Wallace

31864: Financial Windfalls, Portfolio Allocations, and Risk Preferences

Joseph S. Briggs, David Cesarini, Sean Chanwook Lee, Erik Lindqvist and Robert Östling

31863: When do Treasuries Earn the Convenience Yield? — A Hedging Perspective

Viral Acharya and Toomas Laarits