NBER Working Papers

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31827: Partisan Traps

Ethan Bueno de Mesquita and Wioletta Dziuda

31826: Long-term Care in England

James Banks, Eric French and Jeremy McCauley

31825: Universalizing the Access to Long-term Care: Evidence from Spain

Joan Costa-Font, Sergi Jimenez-Martin, Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto and Analía Viola

31824: Tax Policy and the Heterogeneous Costs of Homeownership

Kelly Bishop, Jakob Dowling, Nicolai Kuminoff and Alvin Murphy

31823: Long-term care in the Netherlands

Pieter Bakx, Eddy Van Doorslaer and Bram Wouterse

31822: Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations

Alexander Dietrich, Edward Knotek, Kristian O. Myrseth, Robert Rich, Raphael Schoenle and Michael Weber

31821: Convergent Evolution Toward the Joint-Stock Company

David Le Bris, William Goetzmann and Sébastien Pouget

31820: Hidden Exposure: Measuring US Supply Chain Reliance

Richard Baldwin, Rebecca Freeman and Angelos Theodorakopoulos

31819: Social Insurance and Migration: Evidence from a Nation-Wide Institutional Reform in China

Fanghua Li, Chenyang Ji and Moshe Buchinsky

31818: Does Wage Theft Vary by Demographic Group? Evidence from Minimum Wage Increases

Jeffrey Clemens and Michael Strain

31817: Semiparametric Conditional Factor Models: Estimation and Inference

Qihui Chen, Nikolai Roussanov and Xiaoliang Wang

31816: How Does Medicaid Expansion Impact Income Support Program Participation and Employment for Different Types of People with Disabilities?

Ari Ne'eman and Nicole Maestas

31815: Economic Growth under Transformative AI

Philip Trammell and Anton Korinek

31814: Analyzing Bounded Count Data

John Mullahy

31813: Dirty Air and Green Investments: The Impact of Pollution Information on Portfolio Allocations

Raymond Fisman, Pulak Ghosh, Arkodipta Sarkar and Jian Zhang

31812: The Impact of the Global COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign on All-Cause Mortality

Virat Agrawal, Neeraj Sood and Christopher Whaley

31811: Wars and the Labor Market Outcomes of Minorities in the U.S

Andreas Ferrara

31810: Heterogeneous Agent Trade

Michael Waugh

31809: China’s Nationwide CO2 Emissions Trading System: A General Equilibrium Assessment

Lawrence H. Goulder, Xianling Long, Chenfei Qu and Da Zhang

31808: Using Macro Counterfactuals to Assess Plausibility: An Illustration using the 2001 Rebate MPCs

Jacob Orchard, Valerie Ramey and Johannes Wieland

31807: When Institutions Interact: How the Effects of Unemployment Insurance are Shaped by Retirement Policies

Matthew Gudgeon, Pablo Guzman, Johannes Schmieder, Simon Trenkle and Han Ye

31806: Laffer's Day in Court: The Revenue Effects of Criminal Justice Fees and Fines

Samuel Norris and Evan K. Rose

31805: Racial Disparities in the Income Tax Treatment of Marriage

Janet Holtzblatt, Swati Joshi, Nora R. Cahill and William Gale

31804: The Effects of Mandatory Profit-Sharing on Workers and Firms: Evidence from France

Elio Nimier-David, David Sraer and David Thesmar

31803: An Economic View of Corporate Social Impact

Hunt Allcott, Giovanni Montanari, Bora Ozaltun and Brandon Tan

31802: Double and Single Descent in Causal Inference with an Application to High-Dimensional Synthetic Control

Jann Spiess, Guido Imbens and Amar Venugopal

31801: Does Paid Sick Leave Facilitate Reproductive Choice?

Johanna Maclean, Ioana Popovici and Christopher Ruhm

31800: Pension Reform, Incentives to Retire and Retirement Behavior: Empirical Evidence from Swedish Micro-data

Lisa Laun and Mårten Palme

31799: Structural Estimation Under Misspecification: Theory and Implications for Practice

Isaiah Andrews, Nano Barahona, Matthew Gentzkow, Ashesh Rambachan and Jesse Shapiro

31798: Why is Trade Not Free? A Revealed Preference Approach

Rodrigo Adão, Arnaud Costinot, Dave Donaldson and John A. Sturm

31797: Deadwood Labor? The Effects of Eliminating Employment Protection for Older Workers

Emmanuel Saez, Benjamin Schoefer and David G. Seim

31796: Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Non-Neutrality of Money

Hassan Afrouzi

31795: The Topography of Nations

Treb Allen

31794: “Compensate the Losers?” Economic Policy and Partisan Realignment in the US

Ilyana Kuziemko, Nicolas Longuet-Marx and Suresh Naidu

31793: Informal Fiscal Systems in Developing Countries

Shan Aman-Rana, Clement Minaudier and Sandip Sukhtankar

31792: Household Carbon Dioxide Emissions Engel Curve Dynamics

Robert Huang and Matthew Kahn

31791: Divestment and Engagement: The Effect of Green Investors on Corporate Carbon Emissions

Matthew Kahn, John Matsusaka and Chong Shu

31790: How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe

Viral Acharya, Matteo Crosignani, Tim Eisert and Christian Eufinger

31789: Are Hospital Quality Indicators Causal?

Amitabh Chandra, Maurice Dalton and Doug Staiger

31788: AI Adoption in America: Who, What, and Where

Kristina McElheran, J. Frank Li, Erik Brynjolfsson, Zachary Kroff, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster and Nikolas Zolas

31787: Global Natural Rates in the Long Run: Postwar Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r* in 10 Advanced Economies

Josh Davis, Cristian Fuenzalida, Leon Huetsch, Benjamin Mills and Alan Taylor

31786: Crime can be a Giffen Good: The Role of Need in Criminal Labor Supply

W. Bentley Macleod

31785: The Effect of Organizations on Physician Prescribing: The Case of Opioids

M. Kate Bundorf, Daniel Kessler and Sahil Lalwani

31784: Macroeconomic Effects of UI Extensions at Short and Long Durations

Miguel Acosta, Andreas Mueller, Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson

31783: The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts

Gadi Barlevy, Jason Faberman, Bart Hobijn and Aysegul Sahin

31782: The Role of Repugnance in Markets: How the Jared Fogle Scandal Affected Patronage of Subway

John Cawley, Julia Eddelbuettel, Scott Cunningham, Matthew D. Eisenberg, Alan Mathios and Rosemary J. Avery

31781: The Political Economy of a “Miracle Cure”: The Case of Nebulized Ibuprofen and its Diffusion in Argentina

Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez del Valle

31780: Harmonizing the Yin and Yang: Gender Disparities in Subjective Well-Being after Retirement in China

Erkmen Aslim, Shin-Yi Chou and Han Yu

31779: Loans for the "Little Fellow:" Credit, Crisis, and Recovery in the Great Depression

Sarah Quincy

31778: Why Do Index Funds Have Market Power? Quantifying Frictions in the Index Fund Market

Zach Brown, Mark L. Egan, Jihye Jeon, Chuqing Jin and Alex A. Wu

31777: Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis

Stephen Cole, Enrique Martinez-Garcia and Eric Sims

31776: The Corporatization of Independent Hospitals

Elena Andreyeva, Atul Gupta, Catherine E. Ishitani, Malgorzata Sylwestrzak and Benjamin Ukert

31775: Is There Really an Inflation Tax? Not For the Middle Class and the Ultra-Wealthy

Edward N. Wolff

31774: The Hidden Cost of Firearm Violence on Infants in Utero

Janet Currie, Bahadir Dursun, Michael Hatch and Erdal Tekin

31773: Labor Market Impacts of Reducing Felony Convictions

Amanda Y. Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri K. Koustas, Alexandre Mas and Crystal Yang

31772: Contagion Effects of the Silicon Valley Bank Run

Dong Beom Choi, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham and Tanju Yorulmazer

31771: When Product Markets Become Collective Traps: The Case of Social Media

Leonardo Bursztyn, Benjamin R. Handel, Rafael Jimenez and Christopher Roth

31770: The Labor Demand and Labor Supply Channels of Monetary Policy

Sebastian Graves, Christopher K. Huckfeldt and Eric Swanson

31769: The Environmental Cost of Easy Credit: The Housing Channel

Manuel Adelino and David Robinson

31768: Institutions, Comparative Advantage, and the Environment

Joseph Shapiro

31767: The Turing Transformation: Artificial Intelligence, Intelligence Augmentation, and Skill Premiums

Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb

31766: A Framework for Detection, Measurement, and Welfare Analysis of Platform Bias

Imke Reimers and Joel Waldfogel

31765: Racial Differences in Parent Response to COVID Schooling Policies

Micah Y. Baum and Brian Jacob

31764: Real Effects of Rollover Risk: Evidence from Hotels in Crisis

Anthony DeFusco, Charles G. Nathanson and Michael Reher

31763: Chronicle of a Dollarization Foretold: Inflation and Exchange Rates Dynamics

Tomás E. Caravello, Pedro Martinez-Bruera and Iván Werning

31762: Why Women Won

Claudia Goldin

31761: Intergenerational Transmission of Inequality: Maternal Endowments, Investments, and Birth Outcomes

Sadegh Eshaghnia and James Heckman

31760: Dynamics of the Long Term Housing Yield: Evidence from Natural Experiments

Verónica Bäcker-Peral, Jonathon Hazell and Atif Mian

31759: The Effect of Childhood Environment on Political Behavior: Evidence from Young U.S. Movers, 1992–2021

Jacob R. Brown, Enrico Cantoni, Sahil Chinoy, Martin Koenen and Vincent Pons

31758: One Giant Leap: Emancipation and Aggregate Economic Gains

Richard Hornbeck and Trevon Logan

31757: Managing to Learn

Sabrin Beg, Anne E. Fitzpatrick and Adrienne Lucas

31756: Why Choose Career Technical Education? Disentangling Student Preferences from Program Availability

Brian A. Jacob and Michael Ricks

31755: Fiscal Federalism and the Role of the Income Tax

Roger Gordon

31754: Carbon Taxes: Many Strengths but Key Weaknesses

Roger Gordon

31753: No Revenge for Nerds? Evaluating the Careers of Ivy League Athletes

Natee Amornsiripanitch, Paul Gompers, George Hu, Will Levinson and Vladimir Mukharlyamov

31752: Optimal Income Taxation and Charitable Giving

Louis Kaplow

31751: Estimating Impact with Surveys versus Digital Traces: Evidence from Randomized Cash Transfers in Togo

Emily Aiken, Suzanne Bellue, Joshua Blumenstock, Dean Karlan and Christopher Udry

31750: Preparing for an Aging Africa: Data-Driven Priorities for Economic Research and Policy

Madeline E. Duhon, Edward Miguel, Amos Njuguna, Daniela Pinto Veizaga and Michael Walker

31749: Geographic Variation in Healthcare Utilization: The Role of Physicians

Ivan Badinski, Amy Finkelstein, Matthew Gentzkow and Peter Hull

31748: Secrets in Asset Purchases: Estimating the Unofficial Incomes of Officials

Yongheng Deng, Shang-Jin Wei, Jing Wu and Rongjie Zhang

31747: Algorithmic Recommendations and Human Discretion

Victoria Angelova, Will S. Dobbie and Crystal Yang

31746: The Long-Term Effects of Income for At-Risk Infants: Evidence from Supplemental Security Income

Amelia A. Hawkins, Christopher A. Hollrah, Sarah Miller, Laura Wherry, Gloria Aldana and Mitchell D. Wong

31745: Bitcoin and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Daily Production Decisions

Anna Papp, Douglas Almond and Shuang Zhang

31744: A Perturbational Approach for Approximating Heterogeneous Agent Models

Anmol Bhandari, Thomas Bourany, David Evans and Mikhail Golosov

31743: Obsolescence Rents: Teamsters, Truckers, and Impending Innovations

Costas Cavounidis, Qingyuan Chai, Kevin Lang and Raghav Malhotra

31742: Do Consumers Acquire Information Optimally? Experimental Evidence from Energy Efficiency

Andrea La Nauze and Erica Myers

31741: The Central Bank's Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?

Paul Beaudry, Thomas Carter and Amartya Lahiri

31740: Self-Employment Within the Firm

Vittorio Bassi, Jung Hyuk Lee, Alessandra Peter, Tommaso Porzio, Ritwika Sen and Esau Tugume

31739: Resilience in Vertical Supply Chains

Gene Grossman, Elhanan Helpman and Alejandro Sabal

31738: Forest Fires: Why The Large Year-to-Year Variation in Forests Burned?

Jerome Apt, Dennis Epple and Fallaw Sowell

31737: Financial Aid and Upward Mobility: Evidence from Colombia’s Ser Pilo Paga

Juliana Londoño-Vélez, Catherine Rodriguez, Fabio Sanchez Torres and Luis E. Álvarez-Arango

31736: Industrial Policy and the Great Divergence

Réka Juhász and Claudia Steinwender

31735: Aspiring to a Better Future: Can a Simple Psychological Intervention Reduce Poverty?

Kate Orkin, Robert Garlick, Mahreen Mahmud, Richard Sedlmayr, Johannes Haushofer and Stefan Dercon

31734: Sexual Harassment in Public Spaces and Police Patrols: Experimental Evidence from Urban India

Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash and Maria Micaela Sviatschi

31733: Effects of Universal and Unconditional Cash Transfers on Child Abuse and Neglect

Lindsey R. Bullinger, Analisa Packham and Kerri M. Raissian

31732: Investigator Racial Diversity and Clinical Trial Participation

Marcella Alsan, Romaine A. Campbell, Lukas Leister and Ayotomiwa Ojo

31731: Unregulated Contaminants in Drinking Water: Evidence from PFAS and Housing Prices

Michelle M. Marcus and Rosie Mueller

31730: The Refugee Advantage: English-Language Attainment in the Early Twentieth Century

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan, Peter Catron, Dylan Connor and Rob Voigt

31729: Inequality and Business Cycles

Florin Bilbiie, Giorgio Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti

31728: Adjusting for Scale-Use Heterogeneity in Self-Reported Well-Being

Daniel Benjamin, Kristen Cooper, Ori Heffetz, Miles Kimball and Jiannan Zhou