NBER Working Papers

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30311: The Race Between Education, Technology, and Institutions

Jonathan Vogel

30310: Screening with Multitasking: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Teacher Tenure Reform

Michael Dinerstein and Isaac M. Opper

30309: Social Protection and Social Distancing During the Pandemic: Mobile Money Transfers in Ghana

Dean Karlan, Matt Lowe, Robert Osei, Isaac Osei-Akoto, Benjamin N. Roth and Christopher Udry

30308: Still Worth the Trip? School Busing Effects in Boston and New York

Joshua Angrist, Guthrie Gray-Lobe, Clemence M. Idoux and Parag Pathak

30307: Stigma in Welfare Programs

Pablo Celhay, Bruce Meyer and Nikolas Mittag

30306: Social Media and the Behavior of Politicians: Evidence from Facebook in Brazil

Pedro Bessone, Filipe Campante, Claudio Ferraz and Pedro Souza

30305: Macroeconomic Forecasting using Filtered Signals from a Stock Market Cross Section

Nicolas Chatelais, Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon and Menzie Chinn

30304: The Causal Effects of Youth Cigarette Addiction and Education

Rong Hai and James J. Heckman

30303: The Effect of Vaccine Mandates on Disease Spread: Evidence from College COVID-19 Mandates

Riley Acton, Wenjia Cao, Emily Cook, Scott Imberman and Michael Lovenheim

30302: Long Story Short: Omitted Variable Bias in Causal Machine Learning

Victor Chernozhukov, Carlos Cinelli, Whitney Newey, Amit Sharma and Vasilis Syrgkanis

30301: Bringing Them In or Pushing Them Out? The Labor Market Effects of Pro-cyclical Unemployment Assistance Changes

Gerard Domènech-Arumí and Silvia Vannutelli

30300: Precautionary Protectionism

Sharon Traiberman and Martin Rotemberg

30299: Covering Undocumented Immigrants: The Effects of a Large-Scale Prenatal Care Intervention

Sarah Miller, Laura Wherry and Gloria Aldana

30298: Labor Misallocation Across Firms and Regions

Sebastian Heise and Tommaso Porzio

30297: Policy Uncertainty in the Market for Coal Electricity: The Case of Air Toxics Standards

Gautam Gowrisankaran, Ashley Langer and Wendan Zhang

30296: Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth when Government is Myopic and Self-interested

Viral Acharya, Raghuram Rajan and Jack Shim

30295: Rise and Fall of Empires in the Industrial Era: A Story of Shifting Comparative Advantages

Roberto Bonfatti and A. Kerem Coşar

30294: The Distributional Impact of the Minimum Wage in the Short and Long Run

Erik Hurst, Patrick Kehoe, Elena Pastorino and Thomas Winberry

30293: First Foot Forward: A Two-Step Econometric Method for Parsing and Estimating the Impacts of Multiple Identities

Andrew S. Hanks, Kevin M. Kniffin, Xuechao Qian, Bo Wang and Bruce Weinberg

30292: How Hybrid Working From Home Works Out

Nicholas Bloom, Ruobing Han and James Liang

30291: Simple Tests for Selection: Learning More from Instrumental Variables

Dan Black, Joonhwi Joo, Robert LaLonde, Jeffrey Smith and Evan Taylor

30290: American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change

Gary Libecap and Ariel Dinar

30289: Banking on Transparency for the Poor: Experimental Evidence from India

Erica M. Field, Natalia Rigol, Charity M. Troyer Moore, Rohini Pande and Simone G. Schaner

30288: The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions

Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Coibion

30287: Help Really Wanted? The Impact of Age Stereotypes in Job Ads on Applications from Older Workers

Ian Burn, Daniel Firoozi, Daniel Ladd and David Neumark

30286: Are Menthol Smokers Different? An Economic Perspective

Yu-Chun Cheng, Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios and Hua Wang

30285: Were Small Businesses More Likely to Permanently Close in the Pandemic?

Robert Fairlie, Frank Fossen, Reid L. Johnsen and Gentian Droboniku

30284: World War II Blues: The Long–lasting Mental Health Effect of Childhood Trauma

Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, Erdal Tekin and Belgi Turan

30283: Adverse Selection as a Policy Instrument: Unraveling Climate Change

Steve Cicala, David Hémous and Morten G. Olsen

30282: The Impact of Climate Change on Mortality in the United States: Benefits and Costs of Adaptation

Olivier Deschenes

30281: Fear of Appreciation and Current Account Adjustment

Paul Bergin, Kyunghun Kim and Ju Hyun Pyun

30280: Natural Disasters and Municipal Bonds

Jun Kyung Auh, Jaewon Choi, Tatyana Deryugina and Tim Park

30279: Measuring Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Equilibrium Perspective on Supply-Side Approaches

Christophe Gouel

30278: Pricing Power in Advertising Markets: Theory and Evidence

Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro, Frank Yang and Ali Yurukoglu

30277: Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?

Alan Blinder, Michael Ehrmann, Jakob de Haan and David-Jan Jansen

30276: Blending Theory and Data: A Space Odyssey

Dave Donaldson

30275: College Costs, Financial Aid, and Student Decisions

Susan Dynarski, Lindsay C. Page and Judith Scott-Clayton

30274: The Effects of Teacher Quality on Adult Criminal Justice Contact

Evan K. Rose, Jonathan T. Schellenberg and Yotam Shem-Tov

30273: Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines

Susan Athey, Kristen Grabarz, Michael Luca and Nils C. Wernerfelt

30272: Tertiarization Like China

Xilu Chen, Guangyu Pei, Zheng Michael Song and Fabrizio Zilibotti

30271: A Study of Bid-rigging in Procurement Auctions: Evidence from Indonesia, Georgia, Mongolia, Malta, and State of California

Kei Kawai, Jun Nakabayashi and Daichi Shimamoto

30270: Liquidity, Financial Centrality, and the Value of Key Players

Arun Chandrasekhar, Robert Townsend and Juan Pablo Xandri

30269: Heterogeneity in Disease Resistance and the Impact of Antibiotics in the US

Justin Cook and Jason Fletcher

30268: What Motivates Leaders to Invest in Nation-Building?

Paola Giuliano, Bryony Reich and Alessandro Riboni

30267: A New Interpretation of Productivity Growth Dynamics in the Pre-Pandemic and Pandemic Era U.S. Economy, 1950-2022

Robert Gordon and Hassan Sayed

30266: Firms and Unemployment Insurance Take-up

Marta Lachowska, Isaac Sorkin and Stephen Woodbury

30265: Fighting Climate Change: International Attitudes Toward Climate Policies

Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Adrien Fabre, Tobias Kruse, Bluebery Planterose, Ana Sanchez Chico and Stefanie Stantcheva

30264: New Pricing Models, Same Old Phillips Curves?

Adrien Auclert, Rodolfo D. Rigato, Matthew Rognlie and Ludwig Straub

30263: Carbon Pricing, Clean Electricity Standards, and Clean Electricity Subsidies on the Path to Zero Emissions

Severin Borenstein and Ryan Kellogg

30262: Confidence, Self-Selection and Bias in the Aggregate

Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea

30261: New Evidence on the Demand for Advice within Retirement Plans

Jonathan Reuter and David P. Richardson

30260: Expectations and the Rate of Inflation

Iván Werning

30259: Ancestral Livelihoods and Moral Universalism: Evidence from Transhumant Pastoralist Societies

Etienne Le Rossignol and Sara Lowes

30258: The Real State: Inside the Congo's Traffic Police Agency

Raúl Sanchez de la Sierra, Kristof Titeca, Haoyang (Stan) Xie, Albert Malukisa Nkuku and Aimable Amani Lameke

30257: Aftermarket Frictions and the Cost of Off-Platform Options in Centralized Assignment Mechanisms

Adam Kapor, Mohit Karnani and Christopher Neilson

30256: A Luna-tic Stablecoin Crash

Harald Uhlig

30255: Misinformation, Consumer Risk Perceptions, and Markets: The Impact of an Information Shock on Vaping and Smoking Cessation

Lawrence Jin, Donald Kenkel, Michael Lovenheim, Alan Mathios and Hua Wang

30254: Financing Health Care Delivery

Jonathan Gruber

30253: A Portfolio Approach to Global Imbalances

Zhengyang Jiang, Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang

30252: Racial Inequality in the U.S. Unemployment Insurance System

Daphné Skandalis, Ioana Marinescu and Maxim N. Massenkoff

30251: The Spanish Mission Legacy on Native American Reservations

Lee Alston, Marie Duggan and Julio Alberto Ramos Pastrana

30250: Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications

Ruixue Jia, Xiao Ma and Victoria Wenxin Xie

30249: Partisan Entrepreneurship

Joseph Engelberg, Jorge Guzman, Runjing Lu and William Mullins

30248: Another Day, Another Visit: Impact of Arkansas's Mandatory Waiting Period for Women Seeking an Abortion by Demographic Groups

Onur Altindag and Ted Joyce

30247: A New Way of Forecasting Recessions

Edward Leamer

30246: Short-Term Tax Cuts, Long-Term Stimulus

James Cloyne, Joseba Martinez, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico

30245: Malleability of Alcohol Consumption: Evidence from Migrants

Marit Hinnosaar and Elaine Liu

30244: Trade, Leakage, and the Design of a Carbon Tax

David Weisbach, Samuel Kortum, Michael Wang and Yujia Yao

30243: Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Towards Losses in a Representative Sample

Jonathan Chapman, Erik Snowberg, Stephanie W. Wang and Colin Camerer

30242: Ghosting the Tax Authority: Fake Firms and Tax Fraud

Paul Carrillo, Dave Donaldson, Dina Pomeranz and Monica Singhal

30241: Operating Hedge and Gross Profitability Premium

Leonid Kogan, Jun Li and Harold Zhang

30240: Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation

Julian di Giovanni, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Álvaro Silva and Muhammed A. Yildirim

30239: Minimum Wages and Labor Markets in the Twin Cities

Loukas Karabarbounis, Jeremy Lise and Anusha Nath

30238: Will the Developing World’s Growing Middle Class Support Low Carbon Policies?

Matthew Kahn and Somik Lall

30237: Intergenerational Transmission of Health at Birth: Fathers Matter Too!

Osea Giuntella, Giulia La Mattina and Climent Quintana-Domeque

30236: When Is Discrimination Unfair?

Peter Kuhn and Trevor T. Osaki

30235: Data and Welfare in Credit Markets

Mark Jansen, Fabian Nagel, Constantine Yannelis and Anthony Lee Zhang

30234: Common Fund Flows: Flow Hedging and Factor Pricing

Winston Dou, Leonid Kogan and Wei Wu

30233: Combating Cross-Border Externalities

Shiyi Chen, Joshua Graff Zivin, Huanhuan Wang and Jiaxin Xiong

30232: Attrition from Administrative Data: Problems and Solutions with an Application to Postsecondary Education

Andrew Foote and Kevin M. Stange

30231: The Value of Pharmacy Benefit Management

Casey Mulligan

30230: Acquisitions, Management, and Efficiency in Rwanda's Coffee Industry

Rocco Macchiavello and Ameet Morjaria

30229: Real-Time Inequality

Thomas Blanchet, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

30228: Producing Health: Measuring Value Added of Nursing Homes

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney

30227: STEM Summer Programs for Underrepresented Youth Increase STEM Degrees

Sarah Cohodes, Helen Ho and Silvia C. Robles

30226: Restoring Confidence in Troubled Financial Institutions After a Financial Crisis

Charles Calomiris and Mark Carlson

30225: Trade Policy and Global Sourcing: An Efficiency Rationale for Tariff Escalation

Pol Antras, Teresa Fort, Agustín Gutiérrez and Felix Tintelnot

30224: Training, Communications Patterns, and Spillovers Inside Organizations

Miguel Espinosa and Christopher T. Stanton

30223: Foundation of the Small Open Economy Model with Product Differentiation

Lorenzo Caliendo and Robert Feenstra

30222: Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve

Wenxin Du, Benjamin M. Hébert and Wenhao Li

30221: The Shadow of the Neolithic Revolution on Life Expectancy: A Double-Edged Sword

Raphael Franck, Oded Galor, Omer Moav and Ömer Özak

30220: Pareto Improvements in the Contest for College Admissions

Kala Krishna, Sergey Lychagin, Wojciech Olszewski, Ron Siegel and Chloe Tergiman

30219: Screening Adaptive Cartels

Juan Ortner, Sylvain Chassang, Kei Kawai and Jun Nakabayashi

30218: Using Divide-and-Conquer to Improve Tax Collection

Samuel Kapon, Lucia Del Carpio and Sylvain Chassang

30217: The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction

Bryan T. Kelly, Semyon Malamud and Kangying Zhou

30216: Information Spillovers and Sovereign Debt: Theory Meets the Eurozone Crisis

Harold Cole, Daniel Neuhann and Guillermo Ordonez

30215: The Privacy Elasticity of Behavior: Conceptualization and Application

Inbal Dekel, Rachel Cummings, Ori Heffetz and Katrina Ligett

30214: Polarization and Public Policy: Political Adverse Selection under Obamacare

Leonardo Bursztyn, Jonathan Kolstad, Aakaash Rao, Pietro Tebaldi and Noam Yuchtman

30213: Can Fiscal Externalities Be Internalized?

Erzo Luttmer

30212: Are Effective Teachers for Students with Disabilities Effective Teachers for All?

W. Jesse Wood, Ijun Lai, Neil R. Filosa, Scott Imberman, Nathan D. Jones and Katharine O. Strunk