NBER Working Papers

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25827: Nonparametric Estimates of Demand in the California Health Insurance Exchange

Pietro Tebaldi, Alexander Torgovitsky and Hanbin Yang

25826: Double-Counting of Investment

Robert Barro

25825: Automated Linking of Historical Data

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan, Katherine Eriksson, James Feigenbaum and Santiago Perez

25824: Multinationals, Offshoring and the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing

Christoph Boehm, Aaron Flaaen and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

25823: Estimating Selection Models without Instrument with Stata

Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Arnaud Maurel, Xiaoyun Qiu and Yichong Zhang

25822: Do Income Contingent Student Loan Programs Distort Earnings? Evidence from the UK

Jack Britton and Jonathan Gruber

25821: Tax Mechanisms and Gradient Flows

Stefan Steinerberger and Aleh Tsyvinski

25820: On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint

Davide Debortoli, Jordi Galí and Luca Gambetti

25819: Errors in the Dependent Variable of Quantile Regression Models

Jerry Hausman, Haoyang Liu, Ye Luo and Christopher Palmer

25818: Automating Response Evaluation for Franchising Questions on the 2017 Economic Census

Joseph Staudt, Yifang Wei, Lisa Singh, Shawn Klimek, J. Jensen and Andrew L. Baer

25817: Premium for Heightened Uncertainty: Explaining Pre-Announcement Market Returns

Grace Xing Hu, Jun Pan, Jiang Wang and Haoxiang Zhu

25816: The Struggle Towards Macroeconomic Stability: Analytical Essay

Assaf Razin

25815: The Politics of CEOs

Alma Cohen, Moshe Hazan, Roberto Tallarita and David Weiss

25814: Institutional Trading Around M&A Announcements

Eliezer Fich, Viktoriya Lantushenko and Clemens Sialm

25813: Are Millennials Really So Selfish? Preliminary Evidence from the Philanthropy Panel Study

Peter Koczanski and Harvey Rosen

25812: An Empirical History of the United States Postal Savings System

Steven Sprick Schuster, Matthew Jaremski and Elisabeth Perlman

25811: The Fiscal Roots of Inflation

John Cochrane

25810: Second Chance: Life without Student Debt

Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao

25809: Does Gentrification Displace Poor Children? New Evidence from New York City Medicaid Data

Kacie Dragan, Ingrid Ellen and Sherry A. Glied

25808: Debt-Maturity Management with Liquidity Costs

Saki Bigio, Galo Nuño Barrau and Juan Passadore

25807: Bank Risk Dynamics and Distance to Default

Stefan Nagel and Amiyatosh Purnanandam

25806: Survival of the Fittest: The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Firm Exit

Dara Lee Luca and Michael Luca

25805: Racial Segregation in Housing Markets and the Erosion of Black Wealth

Prottoy Akbar, Sijie Li, Allison Shertzer and Randall Walsh

25804: Multinational Expansion in Time and Space

Stefania Garetto, Lindsay Oldenski and Natalia Ramondo

25803: On Money as a Medium of Exchange in Near-Cashless Credit Economies

Ricardo Lagos and Shengxing Zhang

25802: Implicit and Explicit Commitment in Credit and Saving Contracts: A Field Experiment

Uzma Afzal, Giovanna d'Adda, Marcel Fafchamps, Simon Quinn and Farah Said

25801: Assets and Job Choice: Student Debt, Wages and Amenities

Mi Luo and Simon Mongey

25800: Incentivized Resume Rating: Eliciting Employer Preferences without Deception

Judd B. Kessler, Corinne Low and Colin Sullivan

25799: Incentivizing Learning-By-Doing: The Role of Compensation Schemes

Joshua Graff Zivin, Lisa Kahn and Matthew Neidell

25798: Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City

Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner and Lucie Parker

25797: Unemployment, Labor Mobility, and Climate Policy

Kenneth A. Castellanos and Garth Heutel

25796: Can Successful Schools Replicate? Scaling Up Boston’s Charter School Sector

Sarah Cohodes, Elizabeth Setren and Christopher Walters

25795: Rise of Bank Competition: Evidence from Banking Deregulation in China

Haoyu Gao, Hong Ru, Robert Townsend and Xiaoguang Yang

25794: Do Distressed Banks Really Gamble for Resurrection?

Itzhak Ben-David, Ajay Palvia and René Stulz

25793: The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt

Matthias Schlegl, Christoph Trebesch and Mark Wright

25792: Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?

Peter Hooper, Frederic Mishkin and Amir Sufi

25791: Predicting High-Risk Opioid Prescriptions Before they are Given

Justine Hastings, Mark Howison and Sarah E. Inman

25790: After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade

Felipe Benguria and Alan Taylor

25789: The Effect of the Universal Primary Education Program on Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Tanzania

Esther Delesalle

25788: Impacts of Industrial and Entrepreneurial Jobs on Youth: 5-year Experimental Evidence on Factory Job Offers and Cash Grants in Ethiopia

Christopher Blattman, Stefan Dercon and Simon Franklin

25787: Can Economic Policies Reduce Deaths of Despair?

William Dow, Anna Godøy, Christopher A. Lowenstein and Michael Reich

25786: Earnings Dynamics and Firm-Level Shocks

Benjamin Friedrich, Lisa Laun, Costas Meghir and Luigi Pistaferri

25785: Destructive Behavior, Judgment, and Economic Decision-making under Thermal Stress

Ingvild Almås, Maximilian Auffhammer, Tessa Bold, Ian Bolliger, Aluma Dembo, Solomon M. Hsiang, Shuhei Kitamura, Edward Miguel and Robert Pickmans

25784: Paid Family Leave and Breastfeeding: Evidence from California

Jessica E. Pac, Ann P. Bartel, Christopher Ruhm and Jane Waldfogel

25783: Long-Run Tax Incidence in a Human Capital-based Endogenous Growth Model with Labor-Market Frictions

Been-Lon Chen, Hung-Ju Chen and Ping Wang

25782: The International Monetary and Financial System

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Helene Rey and Maxime Sauzet

25781: Macroeconomic Uncertainty Prices when Beliefs are Tenuous

Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent

25780: Land Reform and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis with Micro Data

Tasso Adamopoulos and Diego Restuccia

25779: Climatic Constraints on Aggregate Economic Output

Marshall Burke and Vincent Tanutama

25778: Measuring Global Economic Activity

James Hamilton

25777: A Dynamic Model of Characteristic-Based Return Predictability

Aydoğan Alti and Sheridan Titman

25776: Wages, Experience and Training of Women over the Lifecycle

Richard Blundell, Monica Costa Dias, David A. Goll and Costas Meghir

25775: Asset Price Bubbles and Systemic Risk

Markus Brunnermeier, Simon C. Rother and Isabel Schnabel

25774: Liquidity Risk After 20 Years

Lubos Pastor and Robert Stambaugh

25773: Tax Policy for Innovation

Bronwyn Hall

25772: Welfare State, Inequality, and Globalization: Role of International-capital-flow Direction

Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka

25771: What Does an Electric Vehicle Replace?

Jianwei Xing, Benjamin Leard and Shanjun Li

25770: Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?

David Altig, Alan Auerbach, Patrick Higgins, Darryl R. Koehler, Laurence Kotlikoff, Michael Leiseca, Ellyn Terry and Yifan Ye

25769: How the Wealth Was Won: Factor Shares as Market Fundamentals

Daniel Greenwald, Martin Lettau and Sydney Ludvigson

25768: Fiscal Space and the Aftermath of Financial Crises: How It Matters and Why

Christina Romer and David Romer

25767: The Production Relocation and Price Effects of U.S. Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines

Aaron Flaaen, Ali Hortacsu and Felix Tintelnot

25766: The Political Economy of Immigration Enforcement: Conflict and Cooperation under Federalism

Alberto Ciancio and Camilo García-Jimeno

25765: Beyond Competitive Devaluations: The Monetary Dimensions of Comparative Advantage

Paul Bergin and Giancarlo Corsetti

25764: Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia

Eric Swanson

25763: Girls, Boys, and High Achievers

Angela Cools, Raquel Fernandez and Eleonora Patacchini

25762: Trade Wars: What do they Mean? Why are they Happening Now? What are the Costs?

Aaditya Mattoo and Robert Staiger

25761: The Local Aggregate Effects of Minimum Wage Increases

Daniel Cooper, Maria Luengo-Prado and Jonathan Parker

25760: Making Carbon Taxation a Generational Win Win

Laurence Kotlikoff, Felix Kubler, Andrey Polbin, Jeffrey D. Sachs and Simon Scheidegger

25759: Is Blinded Review Enough? How Gendered Outcomes Arise Even Under Anonymous Evaluation

Julian Kolev, Yuly Fuentes-Medel and Fiona Murray

25758: The Impact of Parental Involvement Laws on Minor Abortion

Ted Joyce, Robert Kaestner and Jason Ward

25757: Rational Illiquidity and Consumption: Theory and Evidence from Income Tax Withholding and Refunds

Michael Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Matthew Shapiro and Dan Silverman

25756: What Happened to U.S. Business Dynamism?

Ufuk Akcigit and Sina T. Ates

25755: Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory

Ufuk Akcigit and Sina T. Ates

25754: A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts

Wei Chen, Xilu Chen, Chang-Tai Hsieh and Zheng Song

25753: The Returns to Early-life Interventions for Very Low Birth Weight Children

Eric Chyn, Samantha Gold and Justine Hastings

25752: Censorship, Family Planning, and the Historical Fertility Transition

Brian Beach and W Hanlon

25751: Can the Market Multiply and Divide? Non-Proportional Thinking in Financial Markets

Kelly Shue and Richard R. Townsend

25750: How Cognitive Ability and Financial Literacy Shape the Demand for Financial Advice at Older Ages

Hugh Hoikwang Kim, Raimond Maurer and Olivia Mitchell

25749: Job Displacement Insurance and (the Lack of) Consumption-Smoothing

Francois Gerard and Joana Naritomi

25748: Why is Productivity Correlated with Competition?

Matthew Backus

25747: Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Lawrence Jin

25746: Dishonest Behavior: Sin Big or Go Home

Jason Aimone, Brittany Ward and James West

25745: Tax Professionals: Tax-Evasion Facilitators or Information Hubs?

Marco Battaglini, Luigi Guiso, Chiara Lacava and Eleonora Patacchini

25744: Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios

Stefano Giglio, Matteo Maggiori, Johannes Stroebel and Stephen Utkus

25743: Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve

Roger Farmer and Giovanni Nicolò

25742: In-Text Patent Citations: A User’s Guide

Kevin Bryan, Yasin Ozcan and Bhaven Sampat

25741: Trade, Technology, and the Great Divergence

Kevin O'Rourke, Ahmed Rahman and Alan Taylor

25740: Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications

Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais, Mathilde Muñoz and Stefanie Stantcheva

25739: The Return to Hours Worked Within and Across Occupations: Implications for the Gender Wage Gap

Jeffrey Denning, Brian Jacob, Lars Lefgren and Christian vom Lehn

25738: Combining Administrative and Survey Data to Improve Income Measurement

Bruce Meyer and Nikolas Mittag

25737: An Empirical Total Survey Error Decomposition Using Data Combination

Bruce Meyer and Nikolas Mittag

25736: Does Class Size Matter? How, and at What Cost?

Desire Kedagni, Kala Krishna, Rigissa Megalokonomou and Yingyan Zhao

25735: Intergenerational Mobility between and within Canada and the United States

Marie Connolly, Miles Corak and Catherine Haeck

25734: Hedging Climate Change News

Robert Engle, Stefano Giglio, Bryan T. Kelly, Heebum Lee and Johannes Stroebel

25733: Workers' Employment Rates and Pension Reforms in France: the Role of Implicit Labor Taxation

Didier Blanchet, Antoine Bozio, Simon Rabate and Muriel Roger

25732: "And Yet It Moves": Intergenerational Mobility in Italy

Paolo Acciari, Alberto Polo and Giovanni Violante

25731: Can Simple Psychological Interventions Increase Preventive Health Investment?

Johannes Haushofer, Anett John and Kate Orkin

25730: Schools, Neighborhoods, and the Long-Run Effect of Crime-Prone Peers

Stephen Billings and Mark Hoekstra

25729: Throwing the Baby out with the Drinking Water: Unintended Consequences of Arsenic Mitigation Efforts in Bangladesh

Nina Buchmann, Erica M. Field, Rachel Glennerster and Reshmaan N. Hussam

25728: The Impact of Global Warming on Rural-Urban Migrations: Evidence from Global Big Data

Giovanni Peri and Akira Sasahara