NBER Working Papers

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19210: The Idea of Antipoverty Policy

Martin Ravallion

19209: Learning to Forecast the Hard Way—Evidence from German Reunification

Thomas Triebs and Justin Tumlinson

19208: Solving the DMP Model Accurately

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lu Zhang

19207: Unemployment Crises

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lu Zhang

19206: Optimal Life Cycle Portfolio Choice with Variable Annuities Offering Liquidity and Investment Downside Protection

Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer, Olivia Mitchell and Ralph Rogalla

19205: Capital Controls in Brazil - Stemming a Tide with a Signal?

Yothin Jinjarak, Ilan Noy and Huanhuan Zheng

19204: Measuring the Financial Soundness of U.S. Firms, 1926-2012

Andrew Atkeson, Andrea Eisfeldt and Pierre-Olivier Weill

19203: "Unfinished Business": Ethnic Complementarities and the Political Contagion of Peace and Conflict in Gujarat

Saumitra Jha

19202: Understanding Social Interactions: Evidence from the Classroom

Giacomo De Giorgi and Michele Pellizzari

19201: Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party

Shanker Satyanath, Nico Voigtlaender and Hans-Joachim Voth

19200: Healthcare Exceptionalism? Productivity and Allocation in the U.S. Healthcare Sector

Amitabh Chandra, Amy Finkelstein, Adam Sacarny and Chad Syverson

19199: No Taxation without Information: Deterrence and Self-Enforcement in the Value Added Tax

Dina Pomeranz

19198: Do Insurers Risk-Select Against Each Other? Evidence from Medicaid and Implications for Health Reform

Ilyana Kuziemko, Katherine Meckel and Maya Rossin-Slater

19197: Networks, Commitment, and Competence: Caste in Indian Local Politics

Kaivan Munshi and Mark Rosenzweig

19196: The Caloric Costs of Culture: Evidence from Indian Migrants

David Atkin

19195: Bridging vs. Bonding Social Capital and the Management of Common Pool Resources

Kathy Baylis, Yazhen Gong and Shun Wang

19194: Search for a Common Factor in Public and Private Real Estate Returns

Andrew Ang, Neil Nabar and Sam Wald

19193: Who Uses the Roth 401(k), and How Do They Use It?

John Beshears, James Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte Madrian

19192: Bailouts, Time Inconsistency, and Optimal Regulation

Varadarajan Chari and Patrick Kehoe

19191: Patents as Signals for Startup Financing

Annamaria Conti, Jerry Thursby and Marie Thursby

19190: Real Estate Valuation, Current Account and Credit Growth Patterns, Before and After the 2008-9 Crisis

Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak

19189: X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model

Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer

19188: Race and College Success: Evidence from Missouri

Peter Arcidiacono and Cory Koedel

19187: Central Bank Design

Ricardo Reis

19186: Heterogeneity in Cost-Sharing and Cost-Sensitivity, and the Role of the Prescribing Physician

Mariana Carrera, Dana Goldman and Geoffrey Joyce

19185: Labor Market Returns to Early Childhood Stimulation: a 20-year Followup to an Experimental Intervention in Jamaica

Paul Gertler, James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto, Arianna Zanolini, Christel Vermeersch, Susan Walker, Susan M. Chang and Sally Grantham-McGregor

19184: Liquidity and Inefficient Investment

Oliver Hart and Luigi Zingales

19183: Differential Pricing in Undergraduate Education: Effects on Degree Production by Field

Kevin Stange

19182: The Effect of High School Exit Exams on Graduation, Employment, Wages and Incarceration

Olesya Baker and Kevin Lang

19181: Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy

Treb Allen and Costas Arkolakis

19180: Time-Varying Business Volatility and the Price Setting of Firms

Ruediger Bachmann, Benjamin Born, Steffen Elstner and Christian Grimme

19179: Generational Risk - Is It a Big Deal?: Simulating an 80-Period OLG Model with Aggregate Shocks

Jasmina Hasanhodzic and Laurence Kotlikoff

19178: Allocating Household Time: When Does Efficiency Imply Specialization?

Robert Pollak

19177: The Policy Elasticity

Nathaniel Hendren

19176: Multichannel Spillovers from a Factory Store

Yi Qian, Eric Anderson and Duncan Simester

19175: Up from Poverty? The 1832 Cherokee Land Lottery and the Long-run Distribution of Wealth

Hoyt Bleakley and Joseph P. Ferrie

19174: Network Security and Contagion

Daron Acemoglu, Azarakhsh Malekian and Asuman Ozdaglar

19173: Religion, Politician Identity and Development Outcomes: Evidence from India

Sonia Bhalotra, Guilhem Cassan, Irma Clots-Figueras and Lakshmi Iyer

19172: How Does Provider Supply and Regulation Influence Health Care Market? Evidence from Nurse Practitioners and Physician Assistants

Kevin Stange

19171: Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence

Karel Mertens and José L. Montiel Olea

19170: Liquidity Constrained Exporters

Thomas Chaney

19169: Religiosity and State Welfare

Angela Dills and Rey Hernández-Julián

19168: Cognitive Constraints on Valuing Annuities

Jeffrey Brown, Arie Kapteyn, Erzo Luttmer and Olivia Mitchell

19167: Commodity and Asset Pricing Models: An Integration

Gonzalo Cortazar, Ivo Kovacevic and Eduardo S. Schwartz

19166: Scale, Scope, and the International Expansion Strategies of Multiproduct Firms

Stephen Yeaple

19165: A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout

Ralph Stinebrickner and Todd Stinebrickner

19164: Effects of Mental Health on Couple Relationship Status

Nancy E. Reichman, Hope Corman and Kelly Noonan

19163: Evolving Choice Inconsistencies in Choice of Prescription Drug Insurance

Jason Abaluck and Jonathan Gruber

19162: Health, Education and Income in the United States, 1820-2000

Hoyt Bleakley, Dora Costa and Adriana Lleras-Muney

19161: The Effect of Medicaid Expansions in the Late 1980s and Early 1990s on the Labor Supply of Pregnant Women

Dhaval Dave, Sandra L. Decker, Robert Kaestner and Kosali Simon

19160: Intergenerational Transfer, Human Capital and Long-term Growth in China under the One Child Policy

Xi Zhu, John Whalley and Xiliang Zhao

19159: Lending to Lemons: Landschafts-Credit in 18th Century Prussia

Kirsten Wandschneider

19158: Political Economy in a Changing World

Daron Acemoglu, Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin

19157: Does the Market Value Value-Added? Evidence from Housing Prices After a Public Release of School and Teacher Value-Added

Scott Imberman and Michael Lovenheim

19156: Concentration in Mortgage Lending, Refinancing Activity and Mortgage Rates

David Scharfstein and Adi Sunderam

19155: The Dynamic Properties of Financial-Market Equilibrium with Trading Fees

Adrian Buss and Bernard Dumas

19154: Repairing the Damage: The Effect of Price Expectations on Auto-Repair Price Quotes

Meghan R. Busse, Ayelet Israeli and Florian Zettelmeyer

19153: Land Reform and Sex Selection in China

Douglas Almond, Hongbin Li and Shuang Zhang

19152: Sequential Monte Carlo Sampling for DSGE Models

Edward Herbst and Frank Schorfheide

19151: Medicaid Insurance in Old Age

Mariacristina De Nardi, Eric French and John Jones

19150: Piracy and Copyright Enforcement Mechanisms

Brett Danaher, Michael D. Smith and Rahul Telang

19149: Adverse Selection and an Individual Mandate: When Theory Meets Practice

Martin Hackmann, Jonathan Kolstad and Amanda Kowalski

19148: Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation

Joseph Vavra

19147: Economies of Scale in Nineteenth Century American Manufacturing Revisited: A Resolution of the Entrepreneurial Labor Input Problem

Robert Margo

19146: Asset Pricing Implications of Macroeconomic Interventions An Application to Climate Policy

Rajnish Mehra

19145: Donative Behavior at the End of Life

Jonathan Meer and Harvey Rosen

19144: Eliciting Maternal Expectations about the Technology of Cognitive Skill Formation

Flavio Cunha, Irma Elo and Jennifer Culhane

19143: Food Prices and Body Fatness among Youths

Michael Grossman, Erdal Tekin and Roy Wada

19142: Informal Care and Caregiver's Health

Young Kyung Do, Edward Norton, Sally Stearns and Courtney Van Houtven

19141: Culture, Entrepreneurship, and Growth

Matthias Doepke and Fabrizio Zilibotti

19140: Drought of Opportunities: Contemporaneous and Long Term Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Human Capital

Manisha Shah and Bryce Steinberg

19139: Why High Leverage is Optimal for Banks

Harry DeAngelo and René Stulz

19138: Loans for Higher Education: Does the Dream Come True?

Tomás Rau, Eugenio Rojas and Sergio Urzua

19137: Propagation and Smoothing of Shocks in Alternative Social Security Systems

Alan Auerbach, Lorenz Kueng and Ronald Lee

19136: The Global Decline of the Labor Share

Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman

19135: The Wage Effects of Not-for-Profit and For-Profit Certifications: Better Data, Somewhat Different Results

Kevin Lang and Russell Weinstein

19134: How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size

Teresa Fort, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin and Javier Miranda

19133: Some Simple Economics of Crowdfunding

Ajay Agrawal, Christian Catalini and Avi Goldfarb

19132: Deposit Insurance and Orderly Liquidation without Commitment: Can we Sleep Well?

Russell Cooper and Hubert Kempf

19131: The Female Labor Force and Long-run Development: The American Experience in Comparative Perspective

Claudia Olivetti

19130: Do Lottery Payments Induce Savings Behavior: Evidence from the Lab

Emel Filiz-Ozbay, Jonathan Guryan, Kyle Hyndman, Melissa Kearney and Erkut Ozbay

19129: Banking, Liquidity and Bank Runs in an Infinite-Horizon Economy

Mark Gertler and Nobuhiro Kiyotaki

19128: Differential Fertility, Human Capital, and Development

Tom Vogl

19127: Ordeal Mechanisms In Targeting: Theory And Evidence From A Field Experiment In Indonesia

Vivi Alatas, Abhijit Banerjee, Rema Hanna, Benjamin Olken, Ririn Purnamasari and Matthew Wai-Poi

19126: The Effect of Mergers in Search Market: Evidence from the Canadian Mortgage Industry

Jason Allen, Robert Clark and Jean-François Houde

19125: Credit Ratings and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt during the Euro Crisis

Joshua Aizenman, Mahir Binici and Michael Hutchison

19124: Selection and Economic Gains in the Great Migration of African Americans: New Evidence from Linked Census Data

William Collins and Marianne Wanamaker

19123: California Energy Efficiency: Lessons for the Rest of the World, or Not?

Arik Levinson

19122: What is European Integration Really About? A Political Guide for Economists

Enrico Spolaore

19121: Measuring Top Incomes Using Tax Record Data: A Cautionary Tale from Australia

Richard Burkhauser, Markus Hahn and Roger Wilkins

19120: Is a VC Partnership Greater than the Sum of its Partners?

Michael Ewens and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

19119: Win Some Lose Some? Evidence from a Randomized Microcredit Program Placement Experiment by Compartamos Banco

Manuela Angelucci, Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman

19118: Spatial Equilibrium with Unemployment and Wage Bargaining: Theory and Estimation

Paul Beaudry, David Green and Benjamin Sand

19117: Finance and the Preservation of Wealth

Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny

19116: The Slowdown in the Economic Assimilation of Immigrants: Aging and Cohort Effects Revisited Again

George Borjas

19115: Recessions and Admissions to Substance Abuse Treatment

Jonathan H. Cantor, Brady Horn and Johanna Maclean

19114: Updating Beliefs with Ambiguous Evidence: Implications for Polarization

Roland Fryer, Philipp Harms and Matthew Jackson

19113: Information and Student Achievement: Evidence from a Cellular Phone Experiment

Roland Fryer

19112: The European Crisis in the Context of the History of Previous Financial Crises

Michael Bordo and Harold James

19111: Education, Birth Order, and Family Size

Jesper Bagger, Javier Birchenall, Hani Mansour and Sergio Urzua