NBER Working Papers

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18779: Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh

18778: Profitability of Fertilizer: Experimental Evidence from Female Rice Farmers in Mali

Lori Beaman, Dean Karlan, Bram Thuysbaert and Christopher Udry

18777: Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations

Greg Kaplan and Guido Menzio

18776: Do Information Technologies Improve Teenagers’ Sexual Education? Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in Colombia

Alberto Chong, Marco Gonzalez-Navarro, Dean Karlan and Martín Valdivia

18775: Multinational Firms and the Structure of International Trade

Pol Antras and Stephen Yeaple

18774: A Production-Based Model for the Term Structure

Urban Jermann

18773: Effects of Bicycle Helmet Laws on Children's Injuries

Pinka Chatterji and Sara Markowitz

18772: Long-Term Neighborhood Effects on Low-Income Families: Evidence from Moving to Opportunity

Jens Ludwig, Greg Duncan, Lisa A. Gennetian, Lawrence Katz, Ronald C. Kessler, Jeffrey Kling and Lisa Sanbonmatsu

18771: The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China

Alan Taylor

18770: Political Centralization in Pre-Colonial Africa

Philip Osafo-Kwaako and James Robinson

18769: Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data

Michael Owyang, Valerie Ramey and Sarah Zubairy

18768: A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory

John Cochrane

18767: Evaluating Durable Public Good Provision using Housing Prices

Stephen Coate

18766: Uncertainty as Commitment

Jaromir Nosal and Guillermo Ordonez

18765: Climatic Fluctuations and the Diffusion of Agriculture

Quamrul Ashraf and Stelios Michalopoulos

18764: It Pays to Set the Menu: Mutual Fund Investment Options in 401(k) Plans

Veronika K. Pool, Clemens Sialm and Irina Stefanescu

18763: Do Labor Market Networks Have An Important Spatial Dimension?

Judith Hellerstein, Mark Kutzbach and David Neumark

18762: Is There Evidence of a Real Estate Collateral Channel Effect on Listed Firm Investment in China?

Jing Wu, Joseph Gyourko and Yongheng Deng

18761: Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment

Peter Diamond

18760: On Financing Retirement with an Aging Population

Ellen McGrattan and Edward Prescott

18759: Gold Returns

Robert Barro and Sanjay P. Misra

18758: Place Based Policies with Unemployment

Patrick Kline and Enrico Moretti

18757: Subways, Strikes, and Slowdowns: The Impacts of Public Transit on Traffic Congestion

Michael Anderson

18756: The Value of Climate Amenities: Evidence from US Migration Decisions

Paramita Sinha and Maureen Cropper

18755: Empirical Determinants of Intertemporal Choice

Jeffrey Brown, Zoran Ivković and Scott Weisbenner

18754: Incentives and Outcomes: China's Environmental Policy

Jing Wu, Yongheng Deng, Jun Huang, Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung

18753: Distribution Capital and the Short- and Long-Run Import Demand Elasticity

Mario Crucini and Jonathan Davis

18752: Technical Change and the Relative Demand for Skilled Labor: The United States in Historical Perspective

Lawrence Katz and Robert Margo

18751: Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

Kathryn Dominguez and Matthew Shapiro

18750: Do Prices and Attributes Explain International Differences in Food Purchases?

Pierre Dubois, Rachel Griffith and Aviv Nevo

18749: Does Federal Financial Aid Affect College Enrollment? Evidence from Drug Offenders and the Higher Education Act of 1998

Michael Lovenheim and Emily Owens

18748: The Importance of Being Marginal: Gender Differences in Generosity

Stefano DellaVigna, John List, Ulrike Malmendier and Gautam Rao

18747: Incentive Effects of Inheritances and Optimal Estate Taxation

Wojciech Kopczuk

18746: The Missing Transmission Mechanism in the Monetary Explanation of the Great Depression

Christina Romer and David Romer

18745: College as Country Club: Do Colleges Cater to Students' Preferences for Consumption?

Brian Jacob, Brian McCall and Kevin Stange

18744: Peer Gender Composition and Choice of College Major

Massimo Anelli and Giovanni Peri

18743: Ambiguity Aversion and Household Portfolio Choice: Empirical Evidence

Stephen Dimmock, Roy Kouwenberg, Olivia Mitchell and Kim Peijnenburg

18742: Poverty and Self-Control

B. Douglas Bernheim, Debraj Ray and Sevin Yeltekin

18741: Measuring Sovereign Contagion in Europe

Massimiliano Caporin, Loriana Pelizzon, Francesco Ravazzolo and Roberto Rigobon

18740: Payment for Environmental Services: Hypotheses and Evidence

Lee Alston, Krister Andersson and Steven Smith

18739: Reallocation and Technology: Evidence from the U.S. Steel Industry

Allan Collard-Wexler and Jan De Loecker

18738: Genetic Diversity and the Origins of Cultural Fragmentation

Quamrul Ashraf and Oded Galor

18737: A Model of the Safe Asset Mechanism (SAM): Safety Traps and Economic Policy

Ricardo Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi

18736: Air Pollution and Infant Mortality: Evidence from the Expansion of Natural Gas Infrastructure

Resul Cesur, Erdal Tekin and Aydogan Ulker

18735: The Rise of the Low Carbon Consumer City

Matthew Holian and Matthew Kahn

18734: Working Over Time: Dynamic Inconsistency in Real Effort Tasks

Ned Augenblick, Muriel Niederle and Charles Sprenger

18733: Bank Regulation and Supervision in 180 Countries from 1999 to 2011

James Barth, Gerard Caprio and Ross Levine

18732: The Supply and Demand for Safe Assets

Gary Gorton and Guillermo Ordonez

18731: Alcohol Consumption, Deterrence and Crime in New York City

Hope Corman and Naci Mocan

18730: The Mystique Surrounding the Central Bank's Balance Sheet, Applied to the European Crisis

Ricardo Reis

18729: Gaming in Air Pollution Data? Lessons from China

Yuyu Chen, Ginger Zhe Jin, Naresh Kumar and Guang Shi

18728: Views among Economists: Professional Consensus or Point-Counterpoint?

Roger Gordon and Gordon Dahl

18727: Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks

Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

18726: Hot Tip: Nominal Exchange Rates and Inflation Indexed Bond Yields

Richard Clarida

18725: Which News Moves Stock Prices? A Textual Analysis

Jacob Boudoukh, Ronen Feldman, Shimon Kogan and Matthew Richardson

18724: Measuring Margin

Robert L. McDonald

18723: Learning from Customers: Individual and Organizational Effects in Outsourced Radiological Services

Jonathan R. Clark, Robert Huckman and Bradley R. Staats

18722: The Transmission of Democracy: From the Village to the Nation-State

Paola Giuliano and Nathan Nunn

18721: Tracing the Effects of Guaranteed Admission through the College Process: Evidence from a Policy Discontinuity in the Texas 10% Plan

Jason Fletcher and Adalbert Mayer

18720: Does Information Help or Hinder Job Applicants from Less Developed Countries in Online Markets?

Ajay Agrawal, Nicola Lacetera and Elizabeth Lyons

18719: Mismatch, Sorting and Wage Dynamics

Jeremy Lise, Costas Meghir and Jean-Marc Robin

18718: Winning the War: Poverty from the Great Society to the Great Recession

Bruce Meyer and James Sullivan

18717: Birthing a Nation: The Effect of Fertility Control Access on the 19th Century Demographic Transition

Joanna Lahey

18716: International Monetary Coordination and the Great Deviation

John Taylor

18715: Task Specialization in U.S. Cities from 1880-2000

Guy Michaels, Ferdinand Rauch and Stephen Redding

18714: Solving Dynamic Programming Problems on a Computational Grid

Yongyang Cai, Kenneth Judd, Greg Thain and Stephen J. Wright

18713: These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System

Stephen H. Haber and Aldo Musacchio

18712: Competition Among the Exchanges before the SEC: Was the NYSE a Natural Hegemon?

Eugene White

18711: The "Task Approach" to Labor Markets: An Overview

David Autor

18710: Financial Aid Policy: Lessons from Research

Susan Dynarski and Judith Scott-Clayton

18709: Numerical Solution of Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs

Yongyang Cai, Kenneth Judd and Rong Xu

18708: Salience and Asset Prices

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

18707: Simplifying Tax Incentives and Aid for College: Progress and Prospects

Susan Dynarski, Judith Scott-Clayton and Mark Wiederspan

18706: The Golden Dilemma

Claude B. Erb and Campbell Harvey

18705: Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications

Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson

18704: The Social Cost of Stochastic and Irreversible Climate Change

Yongyang Cai, Kenneth Judd and Thomas Lontzek

18703: Uncertainty and Trade Agreements

Nuno Limão and Giovanni Maggi

18702: Female Labor Supply: Why is the US Falling Behind?

Francine Blau and Lawrence Kahn

18701: U.S High School Graduation Rates: Patterns and Explanations

Richard Murnane

18700: Do Housing Prices Reflect Environmental Health Risks? Evidence from More than 1600 Toxic Plant Openings and Closings

Janet Currie, Lucas Davis, Michael Greenstone and Reed Walker

18699: Birthplace Diversity and Economic Prosperity

Alberto Alesina, Johann Harnoss and Hillel Rapoport

18698: Equilibrium Labor Market Search and Health Insurance Reform

Naoki Aizawa and Hanming Fang

18697: History, Gravity and International Finance

Livia Chițu, Barry Eichengreen and Arnaud Mehl

18696: Are Immigrants the Best and Brightest U.S. Engineers?

Jennifer Hunt

18695: Health, Education, and the Post-Retirement Evolution of Household Assets

James Poterba, Steven Venti and David Wise

18694: Industrial Policy and Downstream Export Performance

Bruce Blonigen

18693: The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth

Chang-Tai Hsieh, Erik Hurst, Charles Jones and Pete Klenow

18692: Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the U.S. Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the 20th Century

Alan Barreca, Karen Clay, Olivier Deschenes, Michael Greenstone and Joseph Shapiro

18691: Chiefs: Elite Control of Civil Society and Economic Development in Sierra Leone

Daron Acemoglu, Tristan Reed and James Robinson

18690: Comparing the Happiness Effects of Real and On-line Friends

John Helliwell and Haifang Huang

18689: The Effects of Childhood ADHD on Adult Labor Market Outcomes

Jason Fletcher

18688: Leverage Restrictions in a Business Cycle Model

Lawrence Christiano and Daisuke Ikeda

18687: The New Science of Pleasure

Daniel McFadden

18686: Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer

18685: The Energy-Policy Efficiency Gap: Was There Ever Support for Gasoline Taxes?

Christopher Knittel

18684: Health Information Technology and Patient Outcomes: The Role of Organizational and Informational Complementarities

Jeffrey S. McCullough, Stephen T. Parente and Robert Town

18683: Explaining Africa's (Dis)advantage

Ann Harrison, Justin Lin and Lixin Xu

18682: Risk Shocks

Lawrence Christiano, Roberto Motto and Massimo Rostagno

18681: Revisiting the Minimum Wage-Employment Debate: Throwing Out the Baby with the Bathwater?

David Neumark, John Michael Ian Salas and William Wascher

18680: Informed Trading and Expected Returns

James Choi, Li Jin and Hongjun Yan