NBER Working Papers

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32782: Accounting for Nonresponse in Election Polls: Total Margin of Error

Jeff Dominitz and Charles Manski

32781: Household Mobility and Mortgage Rate Lock

Jack Liebersohn and Jesse Rothstein

32780: Present Bias in Politics and Self-Committing Treaties

Bard Harstad and Anke Kessler

32779: Unconditional Cash Transfers: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Randomized Evaluations in Low and Middle Income Countries

Tommaso Crosta, Dean Karlan, Finley Ong, Julius Rüschenpöhler and Christopher Udry

32778: The Long-Run Impacts of Banning Affirmative Action in US Higher Education

Francisca Antman, Brian Duncan and Michael Lovenheim

32777: Pocketbook Politics: The Impact of Wealth on Political Preferences and Participation

Anton Brännlund, David Cesarini, Karl-Oskar Lindgren, Erik Lindqvist, Sven Oskarsson and Robert Östling

32776: The Fiscal Contract up Close: Experimental Evidence from Mexico City

Anne Brockmeyer, Francisco Garfias and Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato

32775: Global Hegemony and Exorbitant Privilege

Carolin Pflueger and Pierre Yared

32774: World War II Service and the GI Bill New Evidence on Selection and Veterans’ Outcomes from Linked Census Records

William Collins and Ariell Zimran

32773: Employment and Community: Socioeconomic Cooperation and Its Breakdown

Daron Acemoglu and Alexander Wolitzky

32772: Social Interaction Intensity and Investor Behavior

Michael Gelman, David Hirshleifer, Yaron Levi and Liron Reiter-Gavish

32771: Proximity to Abortion Services and Child Maltreatment

Erkmen Aslim, Wei Fu and Erdal Tekin

32770: Bank Payout Policy, Regulation, and Politics

Ruediger Fahlenbrach, Minsu Ko and René M. Stulz

32769: Understanding Korea’s Long-Run Real Exchange Rate Behavior

Douglas Irwin and Maurice Obstfeld

32768: Deep Learning for Economists

Melissa Dell

32767: The Effect of New Information Technologies on Asset Pricing Anomalies

David Hirshleifer and Liang Ma

32766: Driving the Gig Economy

Katharine Abraham, John Haltiwanger, Claire Y. Hou, Kristin Sandusky and James Spletzer

32765: Estimating the Value of Offsite Tracking Data to Advertisers: Evidence from Meta

Nils Wernerfelt, Anna Tuchman, Bradley Shapiro and Robert Moakler

32764: Biomarkers in SHARE: Documentation of Implementation, Collection, and Analysis of Dried Blood Spot (DBS) Samples 2015 – 2023

Martina Börsch-Supan, Karen Andersen-Ranberg, Nis Borbye-Lorenzen, Jake Cofferen, Rebecca Groh, Hannah M. Horton, Elizabeth Kerschner, Thu Minh Kha, Alan Potter, Daniel Schmidutz, Kristin Skogstrand, Aijing Sun, Luzia Weiss, Mark H. Wener and Axel H. Börsch-Supan

32763: Distributed Ledgers and Secure Multi-Party Computation for Financial Reporting and Auditing

Sean S. Cao, Lin Cong and Baozhong Yang

32762: Trends in Competition in the United States: What Does the Evidence Show?

Carl Shapiro and Ali Yurukoglu

32761: How Much Will Global Warming Cool Global Growth?

Ishan B. Nath, Valerie Ramey and Peter J. Klenow

32760: Short-time Employment Aid During the Covid-19 Lockdown Short- and Long-run Effectiveness

Luca Salerno, Axel H. Börsch-Supan, Diana López-Falcón and Johannes Rausch

32759: Limits on Regret as a Tool for Incentive Design

Felipe Araujo, Alex Imas and Alistair Wilson

32758: Estimating the Potential Impact of Combined Race and Ethnicity Reporting on Long-Term Earnings Statistics

Kevin L. McKinney and John Abowd

32757: Quantitative Tightening with Slow-Moving Capital

Zhengyang Jiang and Jialu Sun

32756: Elephants in Equity Markets

Helene Rey, Adrien Rousset Planat, Vania Stavrakeva and Jenny Tang

32755: Mobilizing the Manpower of Mothers: Childcare under the Lanham Act during WWII

Joseph P. Ferrie, Claudia Goldin and Claudia Olivetti

32754: Filtering with Limited Information

Thorsten Drautzburg, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Pablo Guerron and Dick Oosthuizen

32753: Constructing BEA Highways and Streets Net Wealth Stocks with Detailed Types of Investment and Engineering-based Estimates of Depreciation

Barbara M. Fraumeni and Robert Kornfeld

32752: Adjusting Labor Along The Intensive Margins

Daniel Hamermesh and Jeff Biddle

32751: Social Insurance Spillovers: Evidence From Paid Sick Leave Mandates and Workers' Compensation

Xiuming Dong, Johanna Maclean and David Powell

32750: The Micro and Macro Productivity of Nations

Stephen Ayerst, Duc Nguyen and Diego Restuccia

32749: The Graduation Part II: Graduate School Graduation Rates

Jeffrey Denning and Lesley Turner

32748: Nonlinear Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies? Evidence from U.S. Data

Andrés Blanco, Corina Boar, Callum Jones and Virgiliu Midrigan

32747: The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax Filing

Andrew Garin, Dmitri K. Koustas, Carl McPherson, Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Evan K. Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov and Jeffrey Weaver

32746: So Many Jumps, So Few News

Yacine Ait-Sahalia, Chen Xu Li and Chenxu Li

32745: Incentives and Habit Formation in Health Screenings: Evidence from the Illinois Workplace Wellness Study

Damon Jones, David Molitor and Julian Reif

32744: On the Impact of Long-term Care Insurance on the Behavior of Parents and Children: Theory and Evidence on Japan

Charles Horioka, Emin Gahramanov and Xueli Tang

32743: Pricing the Priceless: The Financial Cost of Biodiversity Conservation

Fukang Chen, Minhao Chen, Lin Cong, Haoyu Gao and Jacopo Ponticelli

32742: Intergenerational Impacts of Secondary Education: Experimental Evidence from Ghana

Esther Duflo, Pascaline Dupas, Elizabeth Spelke and Mark P. Walsh

32741: Regulating the Direction of Innovation

Joshua Gans

32740: Worker Representatives

Julian Budde, Thomas Dohmen, Simon Jäger and Simon Trenkle

32739: Rising Markups and the Role of Consumer Preferences

Hendrik Döpper, Alexander MacKay, Nathan H. Miller and Joel Stiebale

32738: Servicing Development: Productive Upgrading of Labor-Absorbing Services in Developing Economies

Dani Rodrik and Rohan Sandhu

32737: Tax Incentives for Charitable Giving: New Findings from the TCJA

Xiao Han, Daniel Hungerman and Mark Wilhelm

32736: Pace of Adoption of Alternatives to Animal-Source Foods and Climate Goals

Galina Hale, Vlad Onescu and Ritesh Bhangale

32735: Family Planning, Now and Later: Infertility Fears and Contraceptive Take-Up

Natalie Bau, David J. Henning, Corinne Low and Bryce Steinberg

32734: The Social Value of Temporary Carbon Removals and Delayed Emissions

Ben Groom and Frank Venmans

32733: The Shifting Finance of Electricity Generation

Aleksandar Andonov and Joshua Rauh

32732: Different Paths to College Success: The Impact of Massachusetts’ Charter Schools on College Trajectories

Sarah Cohodes and Astrid Pineda

32731: The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation

Ivan Yotzov, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen and Gregory Thwaites

32730: Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest

Bocar A. Ba, Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Roman Rivera and Alexander Whitefield

32729: The Effects of Wealth on Health Care Spending: Evidence from the Housing Market

Michael Lovenheim and Jun Hyun Yun

32728: A Welfare Analysis of Policies Impacting Climate Change

Robert W. Hahn, Nathaniel Hendren, Robert Metcalfe and Ben Sprung-Keyser

32727: Do Mergers and Acquisitions Improve Efficiency? Evidence from Power Plants

Mert Demirer and Ömer Karaduman

32726: Digital Advertising and Market Structure: Implications for Privacy Regulation

Daniel Deisenroth, Utsav Manjeer, Zarak Sohail, Steven Tadelis and Nils Wernerfelt

32725: Production Function Estimation Using Subjective Expectations Data

Agnes Norris Keiller, Aureo de Paula and John van Reenen

32724: Is Maturity-Transformation Risk Priced into Bank Deposit Rates?

Matthias Fleckenstein and Francis Longstaff

32723: Intergenerational Spillovers of Driving Privileges for Undocumented Immigrants: Evidence from Early Childhood Education

Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Monica Deza, Genti Kostandini and Tianyuan Luo

32722: On the Origins of Direct Rule: Armed Groups and Customary Chiefs in Eastern Congo

Soeren Henn, Gauthier Marchais, Christian Mastaki Mugaruka and Raúl Sánchez de la Sierra

32721: Exploiting Complementarity in Applied General-Equilibrium Models: Heterogeneous Firms, Multinationals, Capacity Constraints, Endogenous Zeros

James Markusen

32720: Job Search, Unemployment Insurance, and Active Labor Market Policies

Thomas Le Barbanchon, Johannes Schmieder and Andrea Weber

32719: The Employment Effects of a Guaranteed Income: Experimental Evidence from Two U.S. States

Eva Vivalt, Elizabeth Rhodes, Alexander Bartik, David E. Broockman, Patrick Krause and Sarah Miller

32718: The Gas Trap: Outcompeting Coal vs. Renewables

Bard Harstad and Katinka Holtsmark

32717: Anti-social norms

Leopoldo Fergusson, Jose-Alberto Guerra and James Robinson

32716: Toward a Holistic Approach to Central Bank Trust

Sandra Eickmeier and Luba Petersen

32715: Subjective Income Expectations and Household Debt Cycles

Francesco D’Acunto, Michael Weber and Xiao Yin

32714: Taxing Capital in a Globalized World: The Effects of Automatic Information Exchange

Hjalte Fejerskov Boas, Niels Johannesen, Claus Kreiner, Lauge Truels Larsen and Gabriel Zucman

32713: Estimation of Property Value Changes from Nearby Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Projects in the United States

Kaifang Luo, Yueming Lucy Qiu, Pengfei Liu and Yingdan Mei

32712: Billionaire Superstar: Public Image and Demand for Taxation

Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Jeffrey Yusof

32711: Does Income Affect Health? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial of a Guaranteed Income

Sarah Miller, Elizabeth Rhodes, Alexander Bartik, David E. Broockman, Patrick K. Krause and Eva Vivalt

32710: The Effects of State Paid Sick Leave Mandates on Parental Childcare Time

Johanna Maclean and Sabrina Pabilonia

32709: Granular Income Inequality and Mobility using IDDA: Exploring Patterns across Race and Ethnicity

Illenin Kondo, Kevin Rinz, Natalie Gubbay, Brandon Hawkins, John L. Voorheis and Abigail Wozniak

32708: The U.S. Low-Wage Structure: A McWage Comparison

Orley Ashenfelter and Stepan Jurajda

32707: Quantities and Covered-Interest Parity

Tobias J. Moskowitz, Chase Ross, Sharon Y. Ross and Kaushik Vasudevan

32706: Contrasting the Local and National Demographic Incidence of Local Labor Demand Shocks

Richard Mansfield

32705: Is Model Accuracy Enough? A Field Evaluation Of A Machine Learning Model To Catch Bogus Firms

Taha Barwahwala, Aprajit Mahajan, Shekhar Mittal and Ofir Reich

32704: The Socioeconomic Outcomes of Native Groups in Argentina

Pedro Dal Bó and Carolina Lopez

32703: Don’t Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater: Firm Response to Downstream Product Shocks

Phares Akari, Chirantan Chatterjee and Matthew Higgins

32702: Extreme Events, Educational Aspirations and Long-term Outcomes

Rene A. Iwo, Elizabeth Frankenberg, Cecep Sumantri and Duncan Thomas

32701: Government as Venture Capitalists in AI

Martin Beraja, Wenwei Peng, David Yang and Noam Yuchtman

32700: Moral Hazard and Unemployment in Competitive Equilibrium

Patrick Rey and Joseph Stiglitz

32699: How Do You Find a Good Manager?

Ben Weidmann, Joseph Vecci, Farah Said, David Deming and Sonia Bhalotra

32698: Intellectual Property and Creative Machines

Gaétan de Rassenfosse, Adam Jaffe and Joel Waldfogel

32697: Changing Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility

Raj Chetty, Will S. Dobbie, Benjamin Goldman, Sonya Porter and Crystal Yang

32696: Navigating Software Vulnerabilities: Eighteen Years of Evidence from Medium and Large U.S. Organizations

Raviv Murciano-Goroff, Ran Zhuo and Shane Greenstein

32695: An Engine of (Pay) Growth? Productivity and Wages in the UK Auto Industry

Agnes Norris Keiller, Tim Obermeier, Andreas Teichgraeber and John van Reenen

32694: Webmunk: A New Tool for Studying Online Behavior and Digital Platforms

Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin and Chris Karr

32693: Identifying Shocks to Systematic Risk in Times of Crisis

Jacob Boudoukh, Yukun Liu, Tobias J. Moskowitz and Matthew P. Richardson

32692: Driving Change: Evaluating Connecticut's Collaborative Approach to Reducing Racial Disparities in Policing

Susan T. Parker, Matthew Ross and Stephen Ross

32691: Transgender Earnings Gaps in the United States: Evidence from Administrative Data

Christopher Carpenter, Lucas Goodman and Maxine J. Lee

32690: How will Generative AI impact Communication?

Joshua Gans

32689: Redesigning Payments for Ecosystem Services to Increase Cost-Effectiveness

Santiago Izquierdo-Tort, Seema Jayachandran and Santiago Saavedra

32688: The Distributional Effects of U.S. Tax Credits for Heat Pumps, Solar Panels, and Electric Vehicles

Severin Borenstein and Lucas Davis

32687: Labor Market Matching, Wages, and Amenities

Thibaut Lamadon, Jeremy Lise, Costas Meghir and Jean-Marc Robin

32686: Will User-Contributed AI Training Data Eat Its Own Tail?

Joshua Gans

32685: Demand for Artificial Intelligence in Settlement Negotiations

Joshua Gans

32684: Learning, Catastrophic Risk and Ambiguity in the Climate Change Era

Frances C. Moore

32683: Intertemporal Choice Bracketing and the Measurement of Time Preferences

Yonas Alem, John Loeser and Aprajit Mahajan