NBER Working Papers

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25480: Wartime Health Shocks and the Postwar Socioeconomic Status and Mortality of Union Army Veterans and their Children

Dora Costa, Noelle Yetter and Heather DeSomer

25479: Measuring Opportunity in U.S. Higher Education

Caroline Hoxby and Sarah Turner

25478: Noisy Memory and Over-Reaction to News

Rava Azeredo da Silveira and Michael Woodford

25477: Markets for Financial Innovation

Ana Babus and Kinda Hachem

25476: Has the U.S. Wage Phillips Curve Flattened? A Semi-Structural Exploration

Jordi Galí and Luca Gambetti

25475: Can a Tiger Change Its Stripes? Reform of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises in the Penumbra of the State

Ann Harrison, Marshall Meyer, Peichun Wang, Linda Zhao and Minyuan Zhao

25474: The Effect of Superstition on Health: Evidence from the Taiwanese Ghost Month

Martin Halla, Chia-Lun Liu and Jin-Tan Liu

25473: Active Choice, Implicit Defaults, and the Incentive to Choose

John Beshears, James Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte Madrian

25472: An Extra Year to Learn English? Early Grade Retention and the Human Capital Development of English Learners

David Figlio and Umut Özek

25471: Measuring Productivity: Lessons from Tailored Surveys and Productivity Benchmarking

David Atkin, Amit Khandelwal and Adam Osman

25470: How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? Evidence from Payroll Records in Washington State

Ekaterina S. Jardim, Gary Solon and Jacob Vigdor

25469: China vs. U.S.: IMS Meets IPS

Emmanuel Farhi and Matteo Maggiori

25468: Age-Based Property Tax Exemptions

Spencer Banzhaf, Ryan Mickey and Carlianne Patrick

25467: Securities Laws, Bank Monitoring, and the Choice Between Cov-lite Loans and Bonds for Highly Levered

Robert Prilmeier and René Stulz

25466: Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions

Steven Davis and John Haltiwanger

25465: Minding Your Ps and Qs: Going from Micro to Macro in Measuring Prices and Quantities

Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, David Johnson and Matthew Shapiro

25464: Aggregation and the Gravity Equation

Stephen Redding and David Weinstein

25463: Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Limited Enforcement

Marina Halac and Pierre Yared

25462: Global Wealth Inequality

Gabriel Zucman

25461: Beating the Odds: Black Jockeys in the Kentucky Derby, 1870-1911

Michael Leeds and Hugh Rockoff

25460: Addressing Cross-National Generalizability in Educational Impact Evaluation

Eric Hanushek

25459: Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets

Laura Alfaro, Gonzalo Asis, Anusha Chari and Ugo Panizza

25458: On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks

Laura Alfaro, Manuel Garcia-Santana and Enrique Moral-Benito

25457: Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States

Alan Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Daniel Murphy

25456: Inference on Winners

Isaiah Andrews, Toru Kitagawa and Adam McCloskey

25455: Digital Cash: Principles & Practical Steps

Michael Bordo and Andrew Levin

25454: Common Ownership in America: 1980-2017

Matthew Backus, Christopher Conlon and Michael Sinkinson

25453: Infringing Use as a Path to Legal Consumption: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Hong Luo and Julie Mortimer

25452: 1930: First Modern Crisis

Gary Gorton, Toomas Laarits and Tyler Muir

25451: The Dozen Things Experimental Economists Should Do (More of)

Eszter Czibor, David Jimenez-Gomez and John List

25450: The Insurance is the Lemon: Failing to Index Contracts

Barney Hartman-Glaser and Benjamin Hebert

25449: Currency Factors

Arash Aloosh and Geert Bekaert

25448: Heterogeneous Households under Uncertainty

Pietro Veronesi

25447: Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate

Jonathan Dingel, Kyle Meng and Solomon M. Hsiang

25446: Tweet Sixteen and Pregnant: Missing Links in the Causal Chain from Reality TV to Fertility

David Jaeger, Ted Joyce and Robert Kaestner

25445: Monetary and Fiscal Policy When People Have Finite Lives

Roger Farmer and Pawel Zabczyk

25444: Variation in Women’s Success Across PhD Programs in Economics

Leah Boustan and Andrew Langan

25443: The Fine Print in Smart Contracts

Joshua Gans

25442: Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century

Matthew Smith, Danny Yagan, Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick

25441: The Origins of Firm Heterogeneity: A Production Network Approach

Andrew Bernard, Emmanuel Dhyne, Glenn Magerman, Kalina Manova and Andreas Moxnes

25440: Heterogeneity, Measurement Error and Misallocation: Evidence from African Agriculture

Douglas Gollin and Christopher Udry

25439: Agent Orange: Trump, Soft Power, and Exports

Andrew Rose

25438: From Immigrants to Robots: The Changing Locus of Substitutes for Workers

George Borjas and Richard Freeman

25437: Why Has China Overinvested in Coal Power?

Mengjia Ren, Lee Branstetter, Brian Kovak, Daniel E. Armanios and Jiahai Yuan

25436: Retirement Choices by State and Local Public Sector Employees: The Role of Eligibility and Financial Incentives

Leslie Papke

25435: Do Firms Respond to Gender Pay Gap Transparency?

Morten Bennedsen, Elena Simintzi, Margarita Tsoutsoura and Daniel Wolfenzon

25434: The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs: Evidence from the United States Using a Bunching Estimator

Doruk Cengiz, Arindrajit Dube, Attila Lindner and Ben Zipperer

25433: Volatility and Informativeness

Eduardo Davila and Cecilia Parlatore

25432: Do Innovation Subsidies Make Chinese Firms More Innovative? Evidence from the China Employer Employee Survey

Hong Cheng, Hanbing Fan, Takeo Hoshi and Dezhuang Hu

25431: On the Controversies behind the Origins of the Federal Economic Statistics

Hugh Rockoff

25430: Folklore

Stelios Michalopoulos and Melanie Meng Xue

25429: How Does Scientific Progress Affect Cultural Changes? A Digital Text Analysis

Michela Giorcelli, Nicola Lacetera and Astrid Marinoni

25428: Urgent Care Centers and the Demand for Non-Emergent Emergency Department Visits

Lindsay Allen, Janet R. Cummings and Jason Hockenberry

25427: Substance Use Disorder Treatment Centers and Property Values

Brady Horn, Aakrit Joshi and Johanna Maclean

25426: From Commodity to Fiat and Now to Crypto: What Does History Tell Us?

Barry Eichengreen

25425: Understanding Trends in Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States

Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger

25424: Capital Requirements in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics

P. Dean Corbae and Pablo D'Erasmo

25423: Do Workers Value Flexible Jobs? A Field Experiment

Haoran He, David Neumark and Qian Weng

25422: Negative Swap Spreads and Limited Arbitrage

Urban Jermann

25421: The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016

Joao Ayres, Marcio Garcia, Diogo A. Guillén and Patrick Kehoe

25420: Good Carry, Bad Carry

Geert Bekaert and George Panayotov

25419: The Causal Impact of Removing Children from Abusive and Neglectful Homes

Anthony Bald, Eric Chyn, Justine Hastings and Margarita Machelett

25418: Learning from Coworkers

Gregor Jarosch, Ezra Oberfield and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

25417: Consumer Spending During Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications

Peter Ganong and Pascal J. Noel

25416: Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel

Gauti Eggertsson, Ragnar Juelsrud, Lawrence Summers and Ella Getz Wold

25415: The Race Between Demand and Supply: Tinbergen's Pioneering Studies of Earnings Inequality

James Heckman

25414: The Creation and Evolution of Entrepreneurial Public Markets

Shai Bernstein, Abhishek Dev and Josh Lerner

25413: The Discount Rate for Public Policy over the Distant Future

Qingran Li and William Pizer

25412: Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Tiziano Ropele

25411: Social Security and Retirement Timing: Evidence from a National Sample of Teachers

Melinda Morrill and John Westall

25410: The Rise of the Dollar and Fall of the Euro as International Currencies

Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman and Jesse Schreger

25409: The Imbalances of the Bretton Woods System 1965 to 1973: U.S. Inflation, The Elephant in the Room

Michael Bordo

25408: Dynamic Treatment Effects of Job Training

Jorge Rodriguez, Fernando Saltiel and Sergio Urzua

25407: Blockchain Economics

Joseph Abadi and Markus Brunnermeier

25406: The Reversal Interest Rate

Markus Brunnermeier and Yann Koby

25405: Bank Regulation, Network Topology, and Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Great Depression

Sanjiv Das, Kris James Mitchener and Angela Vossmeyer

25404: Managing Expectations: Instruments vs. Targets

George-Marios Angeletos and Karthik A. Sastry

25403: Debt Relief and Slow Recovery: A Decade after Lehman

Tomasz Piskorski and Amit Seru

25402: Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, Jonathan Ostry and Andrew Rose

25401: Learning by Viewing? Social Learning, Regulatory Disclosure, and Firm Productivity in Shale Gas

T. Robert Fetter, Andrew L. Steck, Christopher Timmins and Douglas Wrenn

25400: Long-run Impacts of Agricultural Shocks on Educational Attainment: Evidence from the Boll Weevil

Richard B. Baker, John Blanchette and Katherine Eriksson

25399: Diagnostic Bubbles

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

25398: Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning

Shihao Gu, Bryan Kelly and Dacheng Xiu

25397: Liquidity and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation

Charles Engel and Steve Pak Yeung Wu

25396: Education for All? A Nationwide Audit Study of School Choice

Peter Bergman and Isaac McFarlin

25395: Inequality and Market Concentration, When Shareholding is More Skewed than Consumption

Joshua Gans, Andrew Leigh, Martin Schmalz and Adam Triggs

25394: Social Security Reforms and the Changing Retirement Behavior in Sweden

Mårten Palme and Lisa Laun

25393: How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips

Michael Elsby and Gary Solon

25392: Capital Destruction and Economic Growth: The Effects of Sherman's March, 1850-1920

James Feigenbaum, James Lee and Filippo Mezzanotti

25391: Are Energy Executives Rewarded For Luck?

Lucas Davis and Catherine Hausman

25390: Technological Spillover Effects of State Renewable Energy Policy: Evidence from Patent Counts

Wancong Fu, Chong Li, Jan Ondrich and David Popp

25389: Social Proximity and Bureaucrat Performance: Evidence from India

Guo Xu, Marianne Bertrand and Robin Burgess

25388: Certain Effects of Uncertain Taxes

James Hines and Michael Keen

25387: Female Earnings Inequality: The Changing Role of Family Characteristics on the Extensive and Intensive Margins

David Card and Dean Hyslop

25386: The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Francesco Bianchi, Howard Kung and Mikhail Tirskikh

25385: Deposit Spreads and the Welfare Cost of Inflation

Pablo Kurlat

25384: The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy

Ozkan Eren, Michael Lovenheim and Naci Mocan

25383: A Survey of Empirical Evidence on Patents and Innovation

Bhaven Sampat

25382: From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share

Hugo Hopenhayn, Julian Neira and Rish Singhania

25381: Characteristics of Mutual Fund Portfolios: Where Are the Value Funds?

Martin Lettau, Sydney Ludvigson and Paulo Manoel