NBER Working Papers

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32662: The Effects of the 2021 Child Tax Credit on Parents’ Psychological Well-Being

Lisa A. Gennetian and Anna Gassman-Pines

32661: How Do Strategic Complementarity and Substitutability Shape Equilibrium Dynamics?

Paul Beaudry, Dana Galizia and Franck Portier

32660: Markups and Entry in a Circular Hotelling Model

Robert Barro

32659: Do Reforms Aimed at Reducing Time to Graduation Work? Evidence from the Italian Higher Education System

Davide Malacrino, Samuel Nocito and Raffaele Saggio

32658: Implementing a Ramsey Plan

Wei Jiang, Thomas Sargent and Neng Wang

32657: Race and Ethnicity (Mis)measurement in the U.S. Criminal Justice System

Keith Finlay, Elizabeth Luh and Michael G. Mueller-Smith

32656: How Do Physicians Respond to New Medical Research?

Philip DeCicca, Maripier Isabelle and Natalie Malak

32655: Automation, Career Values, and Political Preferences

Maria Petrova, Gregor Schubert, Bledi Taska and Pinar Yildirim

32654: Just What the Doctor Ordered? The Benefits and Costs of E-Cigarette Regulation in Australia

Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace N. Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang and Sen Zeng

32653: Plan Design and Participant Behavior in Defined Contribution Retirement Plans: Past, Present, and Future

Jonathan Reuter

32652: Partisan Politics and Annual Shareholder Meeting Formats

Yuanzhi Li and David Yermack

32651: Industrial Policy in the Global Semiconductor Sector

Pinelopi Goldberg, Réka Juhász, Nathaniel Lane, Giulia Lo Forte and Jeff Thurk

32650: Partisan Expectations and COVID-Era Inflation

Carola Binder, Rupal Kamdar and Jane Ryngaert

32649: Unobserved Contributions and Political Influence: Evidence from the Death of Top Donors

Marco Battaglini, Valerio Leone Sciabolazza, Mengwei Lin and Eleonora Patacchini

32648: Superstars or Supervillains? Large Firms in the South Korean Growth Miracle

Jaedo Choi, Andrei Levchenko, Dimitrije Ruzic and Younghun Shim

32647: Banks and Tax-Exempt Debt Arbitrage

James Hines and Emily Horton

32646: Timing Sustainable Engagement in Real Asset Investments

Bram van der Kroft, Juan Palacios, Roberto Rigobon and Siqi Zheng

32645: Intra-Household Welfare Inequality and Household Public Goods

Pierre Chiappori, Costas Meghir and Yoko Okuyama

32644: Estimation of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Evolving Regimes

Jeffrey Frankel, Yao Hou and Danxia Xie

32643: Stock Market Wealth and Entrepreneurship

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Plamen T. Nenov, Vitor Santos and Alp Simsek

32642: The Lasting Impacts of Middle School Principals

Eric Hanushek, Andrew J. Morgan, Steven Rivkin, Jeffrey Schiman, Ayman Shakeel and Lauren Sartain

32641: College Students and Career Aspirations: Nudging Student Interest in Teaching

Alvin Christian, Matthew Ronfeldt and Basit Zafar

32640: The Economic Effects of American Slavery: Tests at the Border

Hoyt Bleakley and Paul Rhode

32639: Beyond the War: Public Service and the Transmission of Gender Norms

Abhay Aneja, Silvia Farina and Guo Xu

32638: Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effect

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Tomohide Mineyama and Dongho Song

32637: On the Ubiquity of Declining Business Dynamism

David Hummels and Kan Yue

32636: Monetary Policy without Moving Interest Rates: The Fed Non-Yield Shock

Christoph Boehm and T. Niklas Kroner

32635: The Intergenerational Effects of Permanent Legal Status

Elizabeth Cascio, Paul Cornell and Ethan Lewis

32634: Identifying Agglomeration Shadows: Long-run Evidence from Ancient Ports

Richard Hornbeck, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch

32633: How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer

32632: How Good are Proxies for Legal Status? Evidence from the Legalization of Two Million Mexicans

Elizabeth Cascio, Ethan Lewis and Chengguo Zhang

32631: Retirement Benefit Distributions for California Educators

Robert L. Clark, Denis Pelletier and Beth Ritter

32630: How Merger Synergies Can Harm Consumers: A Defense of the Efficiencies Offense

Paulo Ramos and Thomas G. Wollmann

32629: Social Comparisons and Adolescent Body Misperception: Evidence from School Entry Cutoffs

Christopher Carpenter and Brandyn Churchill

32628: Wealth at Birth and its Effect on Child Academic Achievement and Behavioral Problems

Luis F. Faundez and Robert Kaestner

32627: Industrial Organization and The Rise of Market Power

Nathan H. Miller

32626: Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge

Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov

32625: How Are Insurance Markets Adapting to Climate Change? Risk Classification and Pricing in the Market for Homeowners Insurance

Judson Boomhower, Meredith Fowlie, Jacob Gellman and Andrew Plantinga

32624: Closing the Gates: Assessing Impacts of the Immigration Act of 1917

Ina Ganguli and Jennifer R. Withrow

32623: The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices

S. Boragan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel

32622: Building a Wall Around Science: The Effect of U.S.-China Tensions on International Scientific Research

Robert Flynn, Britta Glennon, Raviv Murciano-Goroff and Jiusi Xiao

32621: Who Benefits from Trade Wars?

Ling Cen, Lauren Cohen, Jing Wu and Fan Zhang

32620: Bond Market Views of the Fed

Luigi Bocola, Alessandro Dovis, Kasper Jørgensen and Rishabh Kirpalani

32619: Leaders in Social Movements: Evidence From Unions in Myanmar

Laura E. Boudreau, Rocco Macchiavello, Virginia Minni and Mari Tanaka

32618: Breaking Boundaries: Lower Tail Dependence Can Triple the Economic Value of Index Insurance for Rural Households

Enrique Estefania-Salazar, Michael Carter, Eva Iglesias and Alvaro Escribano

32617: Intergenerational Human Capital Impacts and Complementarities in Kenya

Madeline Duhon, Lia Fernald, Joan Hamory, Edward Miguel, Eric Ochieng and Michael Walker

32616: Reliability Options in Renewables-Dominated Electricity Markets

Shaun McRae and Frank A. Wolak

32615: Household Climate Finance: Theory and Survey Data on Safe and Risky Green Assets

Shifrah Aron-Dine, Johannes Beutel, Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider

32614: Regime Changes and FDI: A Tale of Two Countries – Poland and Israel

Assaf Razin and Andrzej Cieślik

32613: Who Pays for Rising Health Care Prices? Evidence from Hospital Mergers

Zarek Brot-Goldberg, Zack Cooper, Stuart V. Craig, Lev R. Klarnet, Ithai Lurie and Corbin L. Miller

32612: One Cohort at a Time: A New Perspective on the Declining Gender Pay Gap

Jaime Arellano-Bover, Nicola Bianchi, Salvatore Lattanzio and Matteo Paradisi

32611: Firms' Perceived Cost of Capital

Niels Gormsen and Kilian Huber

32610: Classical Right, New Right, and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Carlos Sanz

32609: The Effects of the 2021 Child Tax Credit on Child Developmental Outcomes

Anna Aizer, Adriana Lleras-Muney and Katherine Michelmore

32608: Stakes and Signals: An Empirical Investigation of Muddled Information in Standardized Testing

Germán Reyes, Evan Riehl and Ruqing Xu

32607: The Value of De Minimis Imports

Pablo D. Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal

32606: Policy Options for the Drug Pricing Conundrum

Kate Ho and Ariel Pakes

32605: Voting on Public Goods: Citizens vs Shareholders

Robin Döttling, Doron Y. Levit, Nadya Malenko and Magdalena A. Rola-Janicka

32604: Third Places and Neighborhood Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Starbucks Cafés

Jinkyong Choi, Jorge Guzman and Mario L. Small

32603: Williamson and Coase: Transaction Costs or Rent-Seeking in the Formation of Institutions

Gary Libecap

32602: The Macroeconomics of Narratives

Joel P. Flynn and Karthik Sastry

32601: Destabilizing Digital "Bank Walks"

Naz Koont, Tano Santos and Luigi Zingales

32600: The Social Costs of Sovereign Default

Juan Farah-Yacoub, Clemens Graf von Luckner and Carmen Reinhart

32599: Sovereign Haircuts: 200 Years of Creditor Losses

Clemens Graf von Luckner, Josefin Meyer, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

32598: Dynamic Identification in VARs

Paul Beaudry, Fabrice Collard, Patrick Fève, Alain Guay and Franck Portier

32597: Diffuse Bunching with Frictions: Theory and Estimation

Santosh Anagol, Allan Davids, Benjamin Lockwood and Tarun Ramadorai

32596: Exchange Rate Disconnect Revisited

Ryan Chahrour, Vito Cormun, Pierre De Leo, Pablo Guerron and Rosen Valchev

32595: Disaster Management

Agnes Norris Keiller and John van Reenen

32594: Inflation Targets: Practice Ahead of Theory

Mervyn A. King

32593: The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890-2006

Ronan Lyons, Allison Shertzer, Rowena Gray and David N. Agorastos

32592: Charity: Have the Rates of US Households Contributing Money or Time Declined?

V. Smith

32591: Is Software Eating the World?

Sangmin Aum and Yongseok Shin

32590: The Power of Inclusive Labor Force Participation for Mitigating Population Aging: Closing Gaps at the Intersection Between Race/Ethnicity and Gender in the United States

René Böheim, Gerard Horvath, Thomas Leoni and Martin Spielauer

32589: Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs

William Goetzmann, Dasol Kim and Robert Shiller

32588: Paying Your Fair Share: Perceived Fairness and Tax Compliance

Brad C. Nathan, Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Alejandro Zentner

32587: Judging the Judges: Indexing of Complex Information Reduces Injustice

Andrew Caplin, Andrei Gomberg and Joyce Sadka

32586: Market Design in Regulated Health Insurance Markets: Risk Adjustment vs. Subsidies

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein and Pietro Tebaldi

32585: Book-Value Wealth Taxation, Capital Income Taxation, and Innovation

Fatih Guvenen, Gueorgui Kambourov, Burhanettin Kuruscu and Sergio Ocampo

32584: Extraordinary Labor Market Developments and the 2022-23 Disinflation

Steven Davis

32583: Does the EITC Reduce Caregiving for Parents?

Katherine Michelmore, Anna Wiersma Strauss and Emily E. Wiemers

32582: Rent Guarantee Insurance

Boaz Abramson and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

32581: Automating Short-Term Payroll Savings: Evidence from Four Large U.K. Experiments

Sarah Holmes Berk, James Choi, Jay Garg, John Beshears and David Laibson

32580: The Impact of Price Transparency in Outpatient Provider Markets

Kayleigh Barnes, Sherry A. Glied, Benjamin R. Handel and Grace Kim

32579: Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data

Benjamin Keys and Philip Mulder

32578: Fertility Beliefs and Outcomes: The Role of Relationship Status and Attractiveness

Yifan Gong, Tyler Skura, Ralph Stinebrickner and Todd Stinebrickner

32577: The Chronic Disease Index: Analyzing Health Inequalities Over the Lifecycle

Kaveh Danesh, Jonathan Kolstad, William D. Parker and Johannes Spinnewijn

32576: Traumatic Financial Experiences and Persistent Changes in Financial Behavior: Evidence from the Freedman's Savings Bank

Vellore Arthi, Gary Richardson and Mark Van Orden

32575: Historical Differences in Female-Owned Manufacturing Establishments: The United States, 1850-1880

Ruveyda Gozen, Richard Hornbeck, Anders Humlum and Martin Rotemberg

32574: Political Connections, Allocation of Stimulus Spending, and the Jobs Multiplier

Joonkyu Choi, Veronika Penciakova and Felipe Saffie

32573: Printing Away the Mortgages: Fiscal Inflation and the Post-Covid Boom

William Diamond, Tim Landvoigt and Germán Sánchez Sánchez

32572: U.S. Liquid Government Liabilities and Emerging Market Capital Flows

Annie Soyean Lee and Charles Engel

32571: Effects of the Expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit for Childless Young Adults on Material Wellbeing

Jiwan Lee, Katherine Michelmore, Natasha Pilkauskas and Christopher Wimer

32570: Preschool Lottery Admissions and Its Effects on Long-Run Earnings and Outcomes

Randall Akee and Leah Clark

32569: In their Shoes: Empathy through Information

Marianne Andries, Leonardo Bursztyn, Thomas Chaney, Milena Djourelova and Alex Imas

32568: Creative Destruction, Stock Return Volatility, and the Number of Listed Firms

Söhnke Bartram, Gregory W. Brown and René M. Stulz

32567: Sufficient Statistics for Measuring Forward-Looking Welfare

David Baqaee, Ariel Burstein and Yasutaka Koike-Mori

32566: International Policy Coordination in a Multisectoral Model of Trade and Health Policy

Viral Acharya, Zhengyang Jiang, Robert Richmond and Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden

32565: Dynamic Models, New Gains from Trade?

Christoph Boehm, Andrei Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar and Hiroshi Toma

32564: Turbocharging Profits? Contract Gaming and Revenue Allocation in Healthcare

Atul Gupta, Ambar La Forgia and Adam Sacarny

32563: Fighting Abuse with Prescription Tracking: Mandatory Drug Monitoring and Intimate Partner Violence

Dhaval Dave, Bilge Erten, David W. Hummel, Pinar Keskin and Shuo Zhang