NBER Working Papers

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18661: Identifying Equilibrium Models of Labor Market Sorting

Marcus Hagedorn, Tzuo Hann Law and Iourii Manovskii

18660: Losing Heart? The Effect of Job Displacement on Health

Sandra Black, Paul Devereux and Kjell G Salvanes

18659: Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Food Price Volatility

Steven Berry, Michael Roberts and Wolfram Schlenker

18658: The Nexus of Social Security Benefits, Health, and Wealth at Death

James Poterba, Steven Venti and David Wise

18657: Size-Dependent Regulations, Firm Size Distribution, and Reallocation

Francois Gourio and Nicolas Roys

18656: Youth Depression and Future Criminal Behavior

D. Mark Anderson, Resul Cesur and Erdal Tekin

18655: The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment

Justin Pierce and Peter Schott

18654: Catching Up and Falling Behind

Nancy L. Stokey

18653: Trade Reforms and Current Account Imbalances

Jiandong Ju, Kang Shi and Shang-Jin Wei

18652: Heterogeneous Firms and Trade

Marc Melitz and Stephen Redding

18651: Notes for a New Guide to Keynes (I): Wages, Aggregate Demand, and Employment

Jordi Galí

18650: Deregulation, Misallocation, and Size: Evidence from India

Laura Alfaro and Anusha Chari

18649: Algebra for 8th Graders: Evidence on its Effects from 10 North Carolina Districts

Charles Clotfelter, Helen Ladd and Jacob Vigdor

18648: Do Classmate Effects Fade Out?

Robert Bifulco, Jason Fletcher, Sun Jung Oh and Stephen Ross

18647: The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World

Roger Farmer, Carine Nourry and Alain Venditti

18646: On the Asset Market View of Exchange Rates

Craig Burnside and Jeremy J. Graveline

18645: Market-Based Emissions Regulation and Industry Dynamics

Meredith Fowlie, Mar Reguant and Stephen Ryan

18644: Carry Trade and Systemic Risk: Why are FX Options so Cheap?

Ricardo Caballero and Joseph B. Doyle

18643: A Gift of Time

Daiji Kawaguchi, Jungmin Lee and Daniel Hamermesh

18642: The RAND Health Insurance Experiment, Three Decades Later

Aviva Aron-Dine, Liran Einav and Amy Finkelstein

18641: The Economics of Faith: Using an Apocalyptic Prophecy to Elicit Religious Beliefs in the Field

Ned Augenblick, Jesse Cunha, Ernesto Dal Bó and Justin M. Rao

18640: Fast-Food Restaurant Advertising on Television and Its Influence on Youth Body Composition

Michael Grossman, Erdal Tekin and Roy Wada

18639: Increasing Our Understanding of the Health-Income Gradient in Children

Jason Fletcher and Barbara Wolfe

18638: Prominent Job Advertisements, Group Learning and Wage Dispersion

Julio Rotemberg

18637: Multi-Product Firms and Product Quality

Kalina Manova and Zhiwei Zhang

18636: Third-Party Opportunism and the Nature of Public Contracts

Marian Moszoro and Pablo Spiller

18635: Six Decades of Top Economics Publishing: Who and How?

Daniel Hamermesh

18634: Solomonic Separation: Risk Decisions as Productivity Indicators

Nolan Miller, Alexander Wagner and Richard Zeckhauser

18633: Social Fragmentation, Public Goods and Elections: Evidence from China

Gerard Padro i Miquel, Nancy Qian and Yang Yao

18632: The Great Trade Collapse

Rudolfs Bems, Robert Johnson and Kei-Mu Yi

18631: Patent Laws and Innovation: Evidence from Economic History

Petra Moser

18630: The Effects of Information, Social and Economic Incentives on Voluntary Undirected Blood Donations: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Argentina

Victor Iajya, Nicola Lacetera, Mario Macis and Robert Slonim

18629: Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery

Jeffrey D. Sachs and Laurence Kotlikoff

18628: International Reserves and Rollover Risk

Javier Bianchi, Juan Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez

18627: Are the Gains from Foreign Diversification Diminishing? Assessing the Impact with Cross-listed Stocks

Karen Lewis and Sandy Lai

18626: Endowment Management Based on a Positive Model of the University

Caroline Hoxby

18625: Matthew: Effect or Fable?

Pierre Azoulay, Toby Stuart and Yanbo Wang

18624: Non-Cognitive Ability, Test Scores, and Teacher Quality: Evidence from 9th Grade Teachers in North Carolina

C. Kirabo Jackson

18623: The Impact of Minimum Age of Employment Regulation on Child Labor and Schooling: Evidence from UNICEF MICS Countries

Eric Edmonds and Maheshwor Shrestha

18622: A Voting Architecture for the Governance of Free-Driver Externalities, with Application to Geoengineering

Martin Weitzman

18621: Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment

Nicholas C. Barberis

18620: Firm/Employee Matching: An Industry Study of American Lawyers

Paul Oyer and Scott Schaefer

18619: Disagreement and Asset Prices

Bruce I. Carlin, Francis Longstaff and Kyle Matoba

18618: Consolidating the Evidence on Income Mobility in the Western States of Germany and the U.S. from 1984-2006

Gulgun Bayaz-Ozturk, Richard Burkhauser and Kenneth Couch

18617: Valuation Risk and Asset Pricing

Rui Albuquerque, Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo

18616: Harvests and Financial Crises in Gold-Standard America

Christopher Hanes and Paul Rhode

18615: Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect

Mary Amiti, Oleg Itskhoki and Jozef Konings

18614: Cognitive Mobility: Labor Market Responses to Supply Shocks in the Space of Ideas

George Borjas and Kirk Doran

18613: Mobile Scientists and International Networks

Giuseppe Scellato, Chiara Franzoni and Paula Stephan

18612: A Poll Tax by any Other Name: The Political Economy of Disenfranchisement

Daniel Jones, Werner Troesken and Randall Walsh

18611: Securitization

Gary Gorton and Andrew Metrick

18610: Who is Exposed to Gas Prices? How Gasoline Prices Affect Automobile Manufacturers and Dealerships

Meghan R. Busse, Christopher Knittel and Florian Zettelmeyer

18609: Did the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) Lead to Risky Lending?

Sumit Agarwal, Efraim Benmelech, Nittai Bergman and Amit Seru

18608: Misconduct in Credence Good Markets

Jennifer Brown and Dylan B. Minor

18607: Risk Management and Climate Change

Howard Kunreuther, Geoffrey Heal, Myles Allen, Ottmar Edenhofer, Christopher B. Field and Gary Yohe

18606: External Imbalances and Financial Crises

Alan Taylor

18605: Does State Preschool Crowd-Out Private Provision? The Impact of Universal Preschool on the Childcare Sector in Oklahoma and Georgia

Daphna Bassok, Maria Fitzpatrick and Susanna Loeb

18604: Concording EU Trade and Production Data over Time

Ilke Van Beveren, Andrew Bernard and Hylke Vandenbussche

18603: Cyclical Variation in Labor Hours and Productivity Using the ATUS

Michael Burda, Daniel Hamermesh and Jay Stewart

18602: Experience Matters: Human Capital and Development Accounting

David Lagakos, Benjamin Moll, Tommaso Porzio, Nancy Qian and Todd Schoellman

18601: Narrow Framing and Life Insurance

Daniel Gottlieb and Kent Smetters

18600: When Is There a Strong Transfer Risk from the Sovereigns to the Corporates? Property Rights Gaps and CDS Spreads

Jennie Bai and Shang-Jin Wei

18599: The Promise of Positive Optimal Taxation: Normative Diversity and a role for Equal Sacrifice

Matthew Weinzierl

18598: The Effects of Texas's Targeted Pre-Kindergarten Program on Academic Performance

Rodney J. Andrews, Paul Jargowsky and Kristin Kuhne

18597: Do Labor Market Policies Have Displacement Effects? Evidence from a Clustered Randomized Experiment

Bruno Crépon, Esther Duflo, Marc Gurgand, Roland Rathelot and Philippe Zamora

18596: Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry

Philippe Aghion, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, David Hemous, Ralf Martin and John van Reenen

18595: Offshoring and Directed Technical Change

Daron Acemoglu, Gino Gancia and Fabrizio Zilibotti

18594: Costly Litigation and Optimal Damages

A. Mitchell Polinsky and Steven Shavell

18593: Value-Based Differential Pricing: Efficient Prices for Drugs in a Global Context

Patricia Danzon, Adrian Towse and Jorge Mestre-Ferrandiz

18592: Capital and Labor Reallocation Inside Firms

Xavier Giroud and Holger M. Mueller

18591: The ARRA: Some Unpleasant Welfare Arithmetic

Casey Mulligan

18590: Buy-it-now or Take-a-chance: Price Discrimination through Randomized Auctions

L. Elisa Celis, Gregory Lewis, Markus Mobius and Hamid Nazerzadeh

18589: The Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign and Russia's Mortality Crisis

Jay Bhattacharya, Christina Gathmann and Grant Miller

18588: Changing Social Contracts: Beliefs and Dissipative Inclusion in Brazil

Lee Alston, Marcus Melo, Bernardo Mueller and Carlos Pereira

18587: Efficient Bailouts?

Javier Bianchi

18586: The Missing "One-Offs": The Hidden Supply of High-Achieving, Low Income Students

Caroline Hoxby and Christopher Avery

18585: Participation and Duration of Environmental Agreements

Marco Battaglini and Bard Harstad

18584: Taxation of Intergenerational Transfers and Wealth

Wojciech Kopczuk

18583: Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy, and the Energy Paradox

Hunt Allcott and Nathan Wozny

18582: Fettered Consumers and Sophisticated Firms: Evidence from Mexico's Privatized Social Security Market

Fabián Duarte and Justine Hastings

18581: Understanding the Mechanisms through Which an Influential Early Childhood Program Boosted Adult Outcomes

James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto and Peter Savelyev

18580: Incentives, Commitments and Habit Formation in Exercise: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Workers at a Fortune-500 Company

Heather Royer, Mark Stehr and Justin R. Sydnor

18579: Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross Exports

Robert Koopman, Zhi Wang and Shang-Jin Wei

18578: Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy

Alan Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

18577: The Mover's Advantage: Scientific Performance of Mobile Academics

Chiara Franzoni, Giuseppe Scellato and Paula Stephan

18576: Gender, Competitiveness and Career Choices

Thomas Buser, Muriel Niederle and Hessel Oosterbeek

18575: What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?

John Beshears, James Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte Madrian and Stephen Zeldes

18574: Free to Choose? Reform and Demand Response in the English National Health Service

Martin Gaynor, Carol Propper and Stephan Seiler

18573: Democracy Undone. Systematic Minority Advantage in Competitive Vote Markets

Alessandra Casella and Sébastien Turban

18572: Analyzing the Effects of Insuring Health Risks: On the Trade-off between Short Run Insurance Benefits vs. Long Run Incentive Costs

Harold Cole, Soojin Kim and Dirk Krueger

18571: Public Liabilities and Health Care Policy

Kristopher Hult and Tomas Philipson

18570: Is Inflation Targeting Still On Target?

Luis Cespedes, Roberto Chang and Andrés Velasco

18569: Macroeconomic Performance During Commodity Price Booms and Busts

Luis Cespedes and Andrés Velasco

18568: Using Student Test Scores to Measure Principal Performance

Jason A. Grissom, Demetra Kalogrides and Susanna Loeb

18567: Aggregation of Consumer Ratings: An Application to Yelp.com

Weijia Dai, Ginger Z. Jin, Jungmin Lee and Michael Luca

18566: Colonialism and Economic Development in Africa

Leander Heldring and James Robinson

18565: Active vs. Passive Decisions and Crowdout in Retirement Savings Accounts: Evidence from Denmark

Raj Chetty, John Friedman, Søren Leth-Petersen, Torben Nielsen and Tore Olsen

18564: Nonlinear Policy Rules and the Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression Kink Design

David Card, David Lee, Zhuan Pei and Andrea Weber

18563: Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate

Alberto Cavallo, Brent Neiman and Roberto Rigobon

18562: Using Neural Data to Test a Theory of Investor Behavior: An Application to Realization Utility

Cary Frydman, Nicholas Barberis, Colin Camerer, Peter Bossaerts and Antonio Rangel